Chevy Jaxon
@chevy-jaxon
Ecological Overshoot | Limits to Growth | Societal Collapse | Planetary Boundaries | Vegan | Climate Change
Breaking news—pending confirmation from maritime authorities or other credible outlets.
Saudi Aramco's Jizan oil refinery is still burning more than 2 days after being struck by Houthi ballistic missiles, with a massive 77km smoke trail visible on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery today. — THL
1) A data centre hub in Hayes County, Texas uses 10 million gallons of water per day by draining the Edwards Aquifer, which supplies drinking water to the Austin & San Antonio corridor Texas data centres have requested 446 gigawatts of grid connections, which is 5X the state's peak power capacity.
Record high temperatures in Saudi Arabia occuring while a war is devastating the region, with desalination and electricity being impacted by the expanding conflict.
"The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen by 104 million barrels since late March. It is now ~61 mmb above the estimated 250-million-barrel emergency floor. The physical tank bottom is about 180 million barrels." — Art Berman
"The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen by 98 million barrels since late March It is now just 68 mmb above the estimated 250-million-barrel emergency floor The physical tank bottom is about 180 million barrels." — Art Berman
"The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now ~19MM barrels away from estimated minimum operating levels. There very soon will no longer be a safety buffer to protect the world from further losses out of the Strait." — Eric Nuttall
Global Water Bankruptcy: Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era. United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH).
"A powerful "mega heat dome" is blanketing the eastern half of the United States. Expected to impact over 170 million people, stretching from the Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures & humidity levels are expected to build through the week, peaking by Tuesday or Wednesday."
Shows 22 June was clearing a back-log. Far fewer empty vessels returning than full ones leaving Hormuz. Dip in oil price will be short-lived.
Our global industrial system relies entirely on a continuing supply of finite resources. Endless growth is physically impossible when bound by rigid physical limits.
"The decline of US global hegemony means the end of a scheme whereby, until very recently, the 5% of humanity that lives in the United States got to enjoy a quarter of the world’s energy supplies and industrial products and a third of its raw materials." — John Michael Greer
Since the Industrial Revolution, human CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use weigh more than the dry mass of all life on Earth and everything humans have ever built combined.
The ongoing Middle East conflict and disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz—will soon provide a real-world stress test of modern society's dependence on oil — and the impact of an approximately 11.5% reduction in global supply.
"Any agreement requires the US to "accept every demand" from Iran, including that it won't surrender enriched uranium or make nuclear concessions, that the Strait of Hormuz remains permanently under Iranian management, and the transfer of $24 billion in frozen funds."
Iran's perspective on deal: "Iran’s FM spokesman says Iran firm on ‘red lines’" "Iran has not made a final decision on the deal: FM spokesperson" "Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman says recent US actions have affected the diplomatic process" — Al Jazeera Trump's perspective on deal:
So, approximately 3½ months to reach emergency floor, or 7 months for physical floor—but this assumes consistent aggressive releases continue unchanged. There'll be slowdowns, policy pauses or physical constraints etc—so critical lows may be reached October 2026 to early 2027. (Graph: Art Berman)
Sounds like BS. Anyhow, if true, it would be less than five days worth of US oil consumption. Cumulative crude oil losses would still have exceeded 1 billion barrels.
"So far, inventories have saved the rise in oil prices. When they run out, we will experience something similar to what is happening with the price of sulfur." — Quark (rayonegro)
"USDA has now confirmed the detection of a New World screwworm (NWS) in a bovine in Zavala County, Texas. The detection of the parasite, which is deadly to cattle, comes at a dire time for the US beef industry, with a smaller herd having already sent prices to record highs." — Javier Blas
Trump: An agreement with Iran has been “largely negotiated” and will be announced shortly. The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened under the agreement. Iranian state media/sources: Trump's characterization is incomplete, inconsistent, or propaganda, Hormuz remains under Iranian authority.
Price increases since start of the Iran war: Sulfur: +95% European Natural Gas: +59% WTI Crude Oil: +58% Jet Fuel: +56% Heating Oil: +56% Gasoline: +52% Diesel: +51% Brent Crude Oil: +50% Urea: +24% Rice: +21% Fertilizer: +20% Iron Ore: +12% Coal: +10% Palm Oil: +9% — Charlie Bilello
4) down)—the current rate of warming (~0.43°C per decade) results in global average temperatures reaching 3°C between 2054 & 2061 and 4°C between 2083 & 2090. Table below by Grant Foster & Stefan Rahmstorf from 2025 paper pre-print. Extrapolated warming from 1.5°C to 4°C by Leon Simons.
"Scientists retired RCP8.5 because real-world [emissions] are tracking lower than its worst-case assumptions. The replacement HIGH scenario in CMIP7 still projects ~3°C of warming by 2100. That is not vindication of inaction. That is still a 3°C planet and we're not built for it." — Chris Gloninger