#BTC 70k target by end of month. In 2020, we had our low confirmation in September. It feels like we are on that same path. As long as the big pullbacks are being bought up we may have set our low at 57k. That would trap a lot of people waiting for much lower.

#Bitcoin fighting to stay above the 46-Day SMA. Recent price has created an interesting range. This may be a turning point. #BTC price is stronger every day that it can stay in this zone. My new approach is to be more aggressive when we have significant downside from here.

Is #Bitcoin setting up for a 'bounce'? Not until we can close above 64,580 USD. Downside pressure remains unless we can flush out leveraged short positions. We are very close to setting a final bottom. It is possible we have just set one. However #Bitcoin has yet to prove that it was.

#Bitcoin set to 'recover' through mid July. #BTC 64,500 USD is a reasonable target. Then the question will be what comes next. Do we re-test of 60,500 USD and then bounce? Or do we set our final bottoming pattern? There's still a lot of time left in this bear cycle.

More #Bitcoin DCA today. Still on a downtrend. More #BTC downside likely. (Free indicator: www.tradingview.com/script/TAJbd...)

#Bitcoin Dollar Cost Average (DCA) day as we drop to the 60k region again. We are in the midst of a bear cycle. That means price could go much lower from here. You can find my FREE indicator here on TradingView: www.tradingview.com/script/TAJbd...

DCA season is upon us! (Dollar Cost Averaging is a way of adding to your position, as we never when the actual bottom may be. The price could continue going much lower, so we just do a little at a time.) My indicator is free on TradingView: www.tradingview.com/u/chillcrypt...

Late with this update. :-( We're still in a #Bitcoin bear cycle. We're still in a macro downtrend. BUT my indicator flashed 'oversold' on the pullback so I bought #BTC daily until Thursday. I am not buying now though we hit resistance. We could go higher. But IMHO more downside is coming later.

#Bitcoin is in a DCA zone (hedge against a 60k bottom). However it does not appear the bottom is in yet. In other words... If you buy now, then that Bitcoin will wait longer to be profitable. If you wait to buy, you are more likely to get more Bitcoin - but that comes with some risk.

Ides of March update! We have been rejected off the 46 Day SMA (shown in green) ever since the move down. That means more lows until we can make the moving average support again. I expect a low anytime between now and September. Though a Fall capitulation is not out of the ordinary.

Are we there yet!? Nope. Not according to my indicator (lower pane), which has not yet flashed a buy signal for #BTC. We likely will see a relief rally back up to 78k before we hit our final bear market low. We don't know yet what the final low will be, but 56k seems reasonable.

#Bitcoin relief rally underway. Here comes your exit liquidity. Target is 98,500 - 101,500 USD. Look for market low late summer.

I hope everyone has a happy and healthy holidays. All the best success in 2026! Will 2026 be the year the #Bitcoin cycle is broken? We may have a shortened and more-shallow bear market this time. Either way, I'll send out a note when it's time to start DCA'ing back in. For now, enjoy and relax!

Jason Pizzino - suggests when low may occur. youtu.be/o50OlLdfZb0?... This lines up with my estimate of 140-148 days after the first major low, with a possible low of 52,750k USD. Last cycle multiple bankruptcies drove the price lower which hopefully won't happen this time.

#Bitcoin relief rally. Trend is down - but price movement is positive. #BTC is challenging the 30-day moving average next. The last time we lost the 30D MA was at 114k. We've been below since. The 5-day MA generally indicates weakness when below the 30-day and strength when above.

#Bitcoin attempting to push through sell wall. For now, a higher low has been set, but downside trend remains.

#Bitcoin selling pressure remains despite building a constructive base, as long as we are above 90,340k. To move higher we need a catalyst to liquidate shorts in the 91.5-95k range. Until then, downside pressure remains.

Holding this moving average is critical for continued rebound. (Shown is a 56-period SMA for the 5-Hour timeframe.) Positive that we pushed up above, but we need to confirm and move higher. We're re-testing at the moment.

In 2021 after #Bitcoin broke below the 400-Day SMA, we fell another 27%. If we copy/paste that correction to the current move, it would take us down to the 74k range. Which coincidentally is our April 2025 low. If we do hit 74k, I'm buying back in. Then will take profit if we hit the 400-Day again

#Bitcoin rebounding from here is going to be a big stretch. No real catalyst at the moment. Recovery to 98k is your next exit opportunity.

#Bitcoin Fear and Greed hits lowest level since 24-Feb-2025 (11). 30% of Bitcoin held is at a loss. Historically these lowest levels are reserved for 'bear market lows'. For comparison, 35% Bitcoin held at a loss Summer 2021. Fear and Greed was at 6 June 2022. Chart courtesy Coinglass.

Just a what if... Projected #Bitcoin low target based on Jan-April price action = 86k. This all depends on whether we lose 96k which is the short-term holder cost basis. Capitulation will accelerate the further down we go. All eyes will be on short term holder action.

#Bitcoin 400-Day simple moving average has flipped from support to resistance.

If #Bitcoin is gonna bounce this would be a great area to do it.

We have our #Bitcoin range. Momentum is continuing downward. Our favorite leveraged whale keeps getting liquidated and trying again - now back in with 40x leverage at 103k (and 25x leverage on #Ethereum). Over 137k traders were liquidate in the last 24hrs ($434.08M).

Our favorite whale just 40X'd Long #Bitcoin and 20X'd Long #Ethereum 3mil each trade. 106k is the level to watch today.

Coinglass reports the same whale just went 20x LONG leverage on #Bitcoin and #Ethereum (approx 3mil each trade) and at the same time went 5X SHORT on Solana to cover losses should we pull back. Seems nobody knows which way this is going. 200-Day is at 110k, below that has risk of rejection.

This time is not like April 2025. No immediate recovery for #Bitcoin. More red ahead.

#BTC You should always prepare for best and worst case scenario. Yes, the trajectory is down. But we can expect bear-market rallies. Knowing that, Tuesday was an over-reaction and Wednesday is 'reverting to the mean' and rally (small or big, we don't know). Thursday will tell us the direction.

So the big question I have is: Is this time like April 2025? In April we hit a low on Monday and then confirmed on Wednesday which was a big day up. That would put this Tuesday as a low and then confirming on Thursday with a big day up. We should know soon if we are repeating, or further down.