Update: @wlos-13.bsky.social is reporting that 5 folks are nominees for #nc11. Worth noting that officially nominees must come from the floor tomorrow at the executive committee meeting, but this is almost certainly the starting point for discussion. #ncpol

Jake Johnson is now officially out, too

Of course, the ~60 member executive committee doesn't have to nominate a member of the #ncga. & doing so would create headaches as their seats have to be filled with a whole other to replace them on the ballot. So, who else is possible?

If we look to the House, Anna Ferguson (NC-119) is brand new and seems extremely unlikely to put her name in that hat (& has not that I've heard), & Mark Pless (NC-118) recently lost his election, told @bryanranderson.bsky.social that he's out, & gave a hell of a good quote in the process.

Over on the web site formerly known as Twitter, Tim Moffitt, generally considered to be the most likely candidate to emerge on Monday from the #nc11 GOP exec. committee meeting to replace Chuck Edwards, announced that he's taking his name out of consideration #ncpol 🧵 1/11

Cool to see this one in print w my friend Gibbs Knotts—and alongside other terrific friends and scholars like @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

Imp. point in @kyleperrotti.bsky.social story: smokymountainnews.com/news/edwards... The #nc11 GOP executive committee that will decide who replaces Chuck Edwards on the ballot in Nov. is *not* simply the 5 officers listed on the web site It includes 61 party leaders from throughout the district

Sept 3 is the deadline for a candidate for U.S. House to pull out. They would need to submit a written request to withdraw. (2/7) #ncpol Here's the statute.

Representative Chuck Edwards is being recommended for censure by House ethics. #nc11 #ncpol Reported by @daniellebattaglia.bsky.social

My prescription for what ails you: a little Mavis Staples.

County boards in 80 of NC’s 100 counties have come to unanimous agreement on early-voting plans for November. Here’s a quick, top-line comparison with the plans used in 2022, the last midterm general election. More analysis and a write-up to follow. #ncpol #electionadministration

13 congressional seat rating changes by Kyle Kondik at UVa's Center for Poliics, including #nc11 & #nc1, which they now rate as toss-ups. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/... #ncpol

Had a hard time deciding on book club books for my Parties, Campaigns & Elections class (so many good books!) but ultimately came up w these 5 bangers.

Just saw my first #nc11 ad of the season--an anti-Chuck Edwards ad by American Bridge, a Super PAC that supports Democratic candidates. Ad focused entirely on Helene. #ncpol

Just got a second #nc11 survey in as many weeks. Will be curious to see if either gets released. Usual battery--Trump, issue importance, some negatives on each, etc. #ncpol

Hell of a quote from Lindsey Graham in @smotus.bsky.social’s Elephants in the Room

A few thoughts on the process to replace Lindsey Graham who passed away last night.* Basics: The Governor (Henry McMaster) gets to appoint someone to fulfill the rest of Graham's term (up this yr), then there's a special election, the winner of which will run in November 🤏🧵

A bunch of internal polls are making the rounds lately--all w/ no question wording, sparse details, and outcomes that benefit the person paying for & releasing the poll. Please save your time & attention & ignore them--even if they reinforce your priors. Especially if they reinforce your priors.

The problem solvers caucus in the US House has presented a "framework" to address gerrymandering & redistricting. They'll work this into legislation "over the coming months" Relevant to #ncpol/#ncpol as Chuck Edwards (R) is a member of the caucus. problemsolverscaucus.house.gov/uploadedfile...

January me: This US Senate race in NC is going to be the defining election of 2026--full of fascinating storylines and record expenditures. Late June me: The most interesting thing about the NC Senate race is that Cooper and Whatley have normalized wearing suits without ties.

As this map from the National Conference on State Legislatures shows, the laws on what happens to the ballots of voters who died before election day is all over the map (literally). (3/4)

Friend brought me this today—Jimmy Carter sticker from 1977 made by a guy in Hendersonville. Too cool not to share (the sticker, not me).

Looking forward to digging into the new one by @smotus.bsky.social

Beautiful evening.

Curious about #ncpol's proposed election bill? Some of these changes expand voter access, some restrict voter access, some change institutional powers, and some are so benign as to not require comment. Here's my quick(ish) takeaway on what to pay attention to: open.substack.com/pub/chriscoo...

Relevant to #ncpol & to many other states who are debating changes to voting & election administration: the assumption that higher voter turnout is better for Democrats is a myth.

Attn: Election administration scholars. Have a project that election administrations can learn from? Apply to present a poster at the Election Center conference in August. Details ⤵️

Squeezed in a day of mountain biking Flagstaff. What a cool town; what a great place to ride a bike.

It's just too perfect that the proposed SC cong. map splits Columbia at the door of the capitol building--placing the capitol bldg. with Orangeburg 🗺️ ⬅️ It also splits five points at its namesake intersection. 🗺️ ➡️ It's like a big middle finger to anyone who knows the geography of SC. #redistricting

New paper up at @theforum-degruyter.bsky.social. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi... 1/4 🧵