What’s funny is that there’s decent evidence rural population losses actually reversed under Biden after a decade of declines www.ers.usda.gov/data-product...

It felt good at the time because of how they handled the Harris replacement, which was pretty bad. But now it’s like the Mets where we traded all of the legacy players and replaced them with Quad-A

My point w/Michigan is more that Stevens seems to be very unfavorable with the electorate. We just had a semi-contested trial run of this primary in 2024 with Slotkin vs. Hill Harper. It was not close. You can’t blame Dem Tea Party for everything

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Seems things are not going well in WI-Gov according to @danshafer.bsky.social

This is automatic drop out type of stuff here, imagine if you donated money to this and now the candidate “lost track” of $200K www.wpr.org/news/sara-ro...

They did ask about abortion, but not included in the chart. From the crosstabs, it seems the "populist" quadrant in the top left is 48/51 on pro-choice/pro-life, but conservatives are 25/72 (top right)

In 2022, the economic conservatives bloc hit 41%, but it's been on the decline since then. And I think people have been getting super mad at entitlement disruptions (see: the government shutdown)

Pretty fascinating data from Echelon showing that economic conservatism is only getting 36%. There are now 17% who claim to be socially conservative and economically liberal. Populists at 0%.

It is cool when a poll confirms the most obvious assumptions of a state. Massachusetts residents love the state and also think it's too expensive. scholars.unh.edu/survey_cente...

Another note on this poll is that Graham's '65%' name rec on YouGov is assuredly fake because about 10-20% of people clearly just claim to know everyone without "knowing" them. You cannot convince me that roughly 72 million American adults know who Ritchie Torres is. Just not possible.

From an April 2025 poll, he was definitely more known among Dems. but his name rec was in the MTG and Ben Carson range

Interesting that Echelon is finding populism on the right is at an all-time low, and that some have dropped out or outright gone to Dems

Oregon Dems are so regime-pilled that they voted for Kitzhaber despite obvious ethics violations and being under federal investigation. And then Kitzhaber resigned a month into his term. They gave Kate Brown a better voteshare in the special in 2016. It's an amazing place.

tbh there's not a ton of evidence women have moved decisively toward Dems in the last decade. Dem support on Catalist has been stable or falling since 2016 On our @electioncord.com approval trackers, Trump's decline seems uniform across men and women (ignore that last outlier spike for women)

Older Dems moving the most against Israel is actually quite apparent to everyone except the media, which continues to portray this as a left-wing college campus movement

if Cori Bush wins at a 60:1 spending disadvantage, that would be one of the more impressive primary campaigns of the cycle

letting voters know who you are might be a good idea? Just wondering?

It’s remarkable that Oregon had the worst economic conditions and the least effective governance, but had zero sign of Dem Tea Party in its primaries

Data For Progress and Quantus converging on each other because one is afraid of showing Dems doing well and the other is afraid of showing R’s doing too badly

Also, people need to chill in the terminally online politics bubble. Maine won't affect races in Texas or Iowa. Here are the numbers for "do you think Platner allegations are true": 79% said "not sure" and then 61% didn't know who he was

This tool basically quantifies why I feel so weird talking to people from the Bay Area electioncord.com/proportio/

dawg

most discussion of your preferred national soccer team

Interesting paradox where DeGette did the best in the primary among areas in CO-01 that ticket split against her in general elections.

TIL Ron Wyden basically pulled a Melat Kiros to get into office

RFK Jr’s entire favorability boost relative to Trump can largely be attributed to retaining strong ratings among non-college ed women Also, he has high name rec, greater than Rubio…