Doing fieldwork.

Restrictions to stop capital from leaving China. Restrictions to stop AI engineers from leaving China.

Not sure if anyone else can relate, but about half of my family's glasses growing up were empty dried beef jars.

Theses perks, or inducements, may be security guarantees or economic and financial benefits. Whatever the deal is, the logic is simple: a quid pro quo, or negotiation, is required to maintain dominance. (8/10)

For Strange, a "negotiated" currency is a step down from a "top" currency. The latter's dominance is sustained entirely by economic incentives. However, when those incentives are no longer enough, the issuing country can provide "perks" to maintain dominance. (7/10)

If the pathbreaking British political economist Susan Strange were here, she might suggest that this is a sign the dollar is becoming a "negotiated currency", a concept introduced in her landmark book "Sterling and British Policy" (1971). (6/10)

The implication is that the US is now considering offering inducements to select countries to keep their eyes from wandering to currency alternatives amid a disruptive war. @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social GeoEconomics has a nice piece related to this: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog... (5/10)

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)

NBC Sunday Night Baseball

In grad school I worked really hard to train my brain that "data" = plural, and now this is what's become of us.

There is some evidence that citizens who are incumbent/regime supporters react positively to Chinese bailouts, though the findings here are less robust, as we only find this in the case of Argentina. (6/7)

Our interpretation is that for these individuals, China's generosity is seen as a self-serving tool designed to prop up a government/regime that benefits Beijing, but that they oppose. (5/7)

The effect of info about Chinese bailouts depends on citizens' political views. Specifically, individuals who oppose the incumbent government/regime exhibit more *negative* views about economic cooperation with China when informed about past bailouts. (4/7)

The results? Among the full national samples: a big fat nothingburger. Info about Chinese bailouts has no effect on views toward cooperation with China, suggesting bailouts aren't an effective tool of statecraft from a public opinion perspective. But that's not all. (3/7)

We use survey experiments on representative samples in Argentina, Turkey, & Russia to answer the question. Respondents were asked about their level of support for econ cooperation with China. Half were first reminded that China had previously bailed out their government (2/7) (AI generated image)

New research on Chinese economic statecraft, with David Steinberg (@johnshopkinssais.bsky.social) & @seaytac.bsky.social now out in World Development. We consider the question: do Chinese foreign bailouts increase public support for closer economic ties to China in recipient countries? A 🧵 (1/7)

Taco Tuesday

Tickets for the home opener: $80 a pop Meeting your childhood baseball hero on the walk to the stadium: priceless. #PutKennyInCooperstown

"The official soundtrack of US negotiations with Iran."

It was only a "historic correction" for those who got in between January 19 and January 29. For everyone else, there was no correction.

We all agree that when the inevitable movie about the early days of AI is made in ten years or so, Matthew Rhys is automatically slotted into the Dario Amodei role, right?

This is not an unreasonable argument. 2009-2013 was a period of growing int'l use for the RMB, which also happened to be a period of dollar weakness and expectations of RMB appreciation. (selections from a 2015 paper co-authored with Steven Liao) 10/

Presently, the pro-RMBI camp isn't using dollar weaponization to justify their position, but rather pointing to expectations of dollar weakness, RMB strength, and rising geopolitical risk to push their case. (screenshots from the Bloomberg story) 9/

Economist Yu Yongding made a similar argument in 2018 (see below, from my book). 7/

There have been internal political squabbles over renminbi internationalization (RMBI) dating back to the late-aughts. Here's a snippet from a paper I published with David Steinberg on RMBI back in 2017 that broadly summarizes the political cleavages. 2/

Mine was white, but this was my first set of wheels. The fuel economy was so much worse than what this ad suggests.

PBOC guidance to state-owned enterprises to conduct more cross-border business in renminbi, from last April.

PBOC Chair Pan's speech from last summer.

If you're keeping score, other recent examples: Xi Jinping's "reserve currency" remarks at the end of last month.