Dario Perkins
@darioperkins
MD Global Macro, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
lovely blog from @roblind.bsky.social on Warsh and why he doesn't yet have the credibility to drive his reform effort. Perhaps - just perhaps - that is also why his FOMC colleagues are so free with their "backroom gossip"? robertlind529294.substack.com/p/warsh-is-s...
For most of my life I didnt know any other Darios. So you can forgive me slight panic when I get emails like this:
everyone is citing "Maradona central banking". But Mervyn King had a deep disdain for markets. In his analogy, the market was a hapless England defender, falling at the feet of central-banker genius. Warsh is saying the opposite - that markets are omniscient
its not Americans writing about the UK that is annoying. Its the stuff they believe from social media which just aint true
sounds like the AI taskforce is only going to come up with one answer, which should nicely match Warsh's priors:
From our corporate overlords. Compulsory seminar. That's it, I'm calling the peak 🤣
the positive aspect of Trump's FIFA intervention, is that - this time - nobody can say he doesn't deserve his place on the podium if the US lifts the trophy 🤣
This was the position I took in 2016 and it pissed off both sides of the debate. Remain were exaggerating the short term pain, Leave were underestimating the long-term damage... and that's exactly what happened. You owe me an apology @grantlewis.bsky.social 😆
such a cool chart. The UK just has no highly-productive mid-sized cities... look at the gap in the middle of the orange bubbles
Today's Italian press: "TRUMP IS A DICKHEAD" Well yes. But worthy of the front page? Hardly breaking news... 🤣🤣
Why did the ECB hike today? Why do they hike every time energy prices spike? Because of the 1970s. For half a century the Bundesbank has been lecturing everyone on how Germany "opted out" of the Great Inflation by refusing to accommodate oil shocks. One of history's great works of fiction:
Definitely not a bubble. Got my first piece of hatemail today... edsavarese@comcast.net seems like a really nice guy
If jobs reacceleration continues, that has big implications for the monetary policy debate because: 1) with low breakeven rate, it wont be *that* long before capacity disappears 2) Suggests policy not as restrictive as everyone thought 3) Raises doubts about Warsh's AI productivity fairy