The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 253 to 256. It was 93.9% renewable (3/5)

Last week had: - well above average demand (106% of long-term average) - well below average wind (72%) - well below average solar (73%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 92.4% RE Last 256 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 252 to 255. It was 92.4% renewable (3/5)

Last week had: - well above average demand (108% of long-term average) - well above average wind (117%) - extreme below average solar (69%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 92.3% RE Last 255 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 251 to 254. It was 93.5% renewable (3/5)

Last week had: - well above average demand (106% of long-term average) - well above average wind (116%) - extreme below average solar (65%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 97.4% RE Last 254 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

Fantastic EV news in Canberra. 43% of new car sales in June were pure EVs 55% pure EVs + PHEVs The ACT's 100% renewable electricity target shields residents from extreme electricity prices. In a 1-2 decades it will be highly resilient to extreme oil prices reneweconomy.com.au/low-cost-win...

No, June 2024 remains the most challenging period. 12-24 June required 12 days of 'other' (though there was some respite during peak solar on June 15 & 16). And 1-10 June 2024 required 10 days, again with some periods of respite.

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 250 to 253. It was 93.9% renewable (3/5)

Last week had: - well above average demand (105% of long-term average) - average wind (98%) - extreme below average solar (53%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 93.5% RE Last 253 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

Australia Electricity Emissions June Update: Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 521 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 23% since 2020, down 38% since 2015 Sth Australia reductions leading the way thanks to its increase in wind & PV generation. Down 31% since 2020, 69% since 2015.

An additional chart showing black coal, as these days black coal is being operated with a fairly large amount of flexibility

Australia's main electricity grid, the NEM, has long had flexible gas and hydro to help manage the highly variable supply-demand balance. Now storage (mostly batteries) is rapidly growing & will soon be the main source of flexible supply.

Always worth reconsidering. But if you look at the average received price of gas & diesel peakers over the last year it ranges from ~$250/MWh for gas and $635 for distillate. So I think ~$600/MWh is still reasonable. Worth noting that many of these plants will have $300 cap contracts.

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 249 to 252. It was 93.6% renewable (4/6)

Last week had: - above average demand (102% of long-term average) - well below average wind (84%) - extreme below average solar (56%) (3/6)

The second half of last week featured the worst 3-day wind drought since May 2024. Normalised wind generation over the 3 days was just 1/3 of the long-term average (or 67% below average). Peak 'Other' this week was 10.1 GW, just short of the 10.2 GW record set on 12 Jun 2025. 2/6

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 86.1% RE Last 252 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/6)

Yesterday (Sunday) saw the worst 1-day wind drought in over 2 years on Australia's NEM. Just 24 GWh of wind generation, the lowest since 13 June 2024 (16 GWh) But PV generation was OK. Yesterday's VRE total (wind+utilityPV+rooftopPV) of 105 GWh was better than the 82 GWh total on May 18 last month

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 248 to 251. It was 95.4% renewable (3/5)