#NAAIM Exposure Index spiked up to 96% this week, up from 83% last week. Anything about 100% usually means participants are TOO bullish. See Oct and Dec 2026! $SPX

High beta $SPHB to low vol $SPLV ratio favoring low vol over the last four weeks. Speaks to a rotation from offense to defense, with flows into low volatility areas as investors brace for potential downside risk. Note this ratio also turned lower in Q1 before the drop to March $SPX low!

Oof. $GOOGL dropping a big time bearish engulfing pattern as it tests the 50-day moving average, also the neckline of a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. #notbullish

$SPX remains rangebound, with RSI remaining in a neutral range between 40 and 60. Anything above $SPX 7300 seems like more "backing and filling" and less something to really worry about. $SPX below 7300 though 😳

If $SPCX doesn't find support at the IPO price, then as a technical analyst I'm professionally obligated to inform you that we are fresh out of support levels. 📉

Uh oh, Sandisk. Uh oh, Micron. UH OH, SEMICONDUCTORS! THE DREAM IS OVER!! $SNDK $MU $SMH $SOXX

Some major shifts in sector relative strength in July... 📉 Technology $XLK 📉 Industrials $XLI 📈 Communication Services $XLC "If you want to outperform the $SPX, you need to own things that are outperforming the $SPX."

How bearish do I want to be when all the cumulative advance-decline lines are making new all-time highs? $SPX

$MS impressing as we kick off Q2 earnings season this week. New highs are bullish, but we would need to see a confirmed close above the June high to confirm a new accumulation phase here.

Crude oil pushed above $80/bbl earlier today on the latest news from the Middle East. Feels like $WTIC > $80 is when investors that have been ignoring the potential impacts of higher oil prices will have to acknowledge the potential impacts of higher oil prices.

Our "New Dow Theory" shows that while the equal weight $SPX $RSP has made new ATH in July, the equal weight Nasdaq $QQQ $QQQE has been sideways since late May. Potential bearish non-confirmation here...

Dave on Mon: 🧐 Crude oil could be bullish with a confirmed break above the 200-day. Dave on Tue: 🤫 Could be the beginning of a new up move. Dave on Wed: 😲 Traded above the 200-day but did not close above. Dave on Thu: 🫣 Back below the 200-day! Dave on Fri: 🫩 Just forget it.

#NAAIM Exposure Index essentially unchanged at 83% this week. Slightly above the long-term average reading, but still not showing any rampant bullishness right about now! $SPX

Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index is breaking out of a coil pattern to the upside, while $QQQ remains in the coil. What gives? Largest names holding back this key growth index, as there are plenty of charts popping higher on their point & figure charts!

Impressive to see $NVDA holding a "confluence of support" formed by the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Compelling setup here as long as it holds 190, as a break below would imply a return to Q1 lows!

In recent weeks, we've seen about 50-60 $SPX members making a new 52-week high every day, or about 10-12% of the index. On Wednesday, it was six stocks, or 1.2% of the index making new highs. Not a huge red flag yet, but something to monitor!

McClellan Oscillator dipped back below zero yesterday, suggesting a short-term bearish breadth environment. This indicator is based on the NYSE cumulative advance-decline line, and this break below zero implies slowing uptrend for long-term breadth data. Can $SPX go higher with bad breadth?

Crude oil $WTIC is back above the 200-day moving average. Would expect a move above $80 to trigger some bearish "oh no crude oil is way too high again" kind of sentiment. I'm currently positioned for upside in energy stocks $XLE with charts like $HAL a great illustration of a bounce off key support!

#Gold is in a primary downtrend, and here is why: 📉 Price making lower lows and lower highs 📉 $GLD rocked a bearish engulfing pattern on testing the 21-day EMA 📉 RSI consistently below 50 I'll get all bullish and stuff when those 📉 above turn into 📈!

In perhaps the most striking illustration of leadership rotation, $SPX broke out of a coil pattern to the upside (which has since failed) while $QQQ broke down from a similar coil pattern. Will weakness in big tech drag everything else down with it?...

$SPX coil pattern still alive and well, with Monday's breakout then no follow-through day Tuesday and now a risk-off start to Wednesday. RSI almost dead neutral at 50. Consolidation phase!

How bullish do I want to be if previous leaders like $SNDK are breaking below their 50-day moving averages?.....

Decent jump for #gold over the last week, but still in a primary downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows, below trendline resistance, and failing to overtake the 21-day EMA. Unless RSI can push above 50-60 range, this remains a bearish trend with bearish momentum.

Low $VIX = low volatility = options market pricing in small % swings for $SPX. As long as $VIX remains around 16, indicator is saying we're in a low-risk environment!

Well if you define a trend by the strength of market breadth indicators, then this market appears as strong as ever. Cumulative advance-decline lines across all cap tiers making new all-time highs! $SPX $SPY

While many of the Mag7 names remain "chart challenged", $AAPL is differentiating itself with a positive resolution to the bull flag pattern. Bottom of the pattern along with the 200-day MA could serve as key support in any pullback scenario.

"Overbought means up a lot." RSI over 70 does not usually mean the end of a long-term uptrend, but more of a likely tactical pullback within a larger uptrend phase. $DAL has pulled back usually to the 21-day EMA under similar patterns over the last 12-18 months.

Bearish momentum divergences like this one for semis $SMH resolve in one of two ways: 📈 Momentum improves as price breakout is confirmed with stronger buying power 📉 Price deteriorates as negative momentum confirms stronger selling pressure For now, higher highs and higher lows are bullish!

Market breadth indicators continued to improve this week. 2 of every three $SPX members are above their 200-day moving averages, suggesting broad participation on the upside. While semis $SMH struggled to end the week, plenty of stocks are in great shape here.

11% of $SPX members made a 52-week high on Thursday's session. Even though the major indexes $SPY $QQQ are not actively testing new highs, plenty of individual names are already doing so! Good charts are out there.