Dominic Meagher

@dom-ma

Research fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Non-resident fellow, John Curtin Research Centre

2.600 Folgt2.822 Follower5.256 Posts

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Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· 15d

Only half of Australians understand that higher interest rates are a brake on the economy or push up unemployment. The majority think higher interest rates pushes up inflation, asset prices, & the exchange rate Rich pickings for an econ explainer!

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· 24d

Looking forward to speaking alongside @chrispicton.bsky.social about a national AI sovereign capability & security agenda at the Fringe of Labor's National Conference in Adelaide on Thursday (2pm).

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jun 26

Have been talking about how European industry is surviving competition from China with Germany’s peak business group & with @merics.bsky.social this morning.

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jun 23

Japan once again the country that is trusted by more Australians than any other. The two countries we fought in WW2 are now the countries we trust the most. I guess they weren’t the only ones to change over the last 80 years

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jun 18

But of course competition for most deranged & dangerous person is quite intense these days:

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jun 12

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jun 6

Surely this is the dumbest thing written about Pauline Hanson (so far)?

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· May 24

@carbonbrief.org includes a chart today showing new coal plants hit a 10-year high last year, with about 75% built in China. China reactivated even more than that. China turn on more than 5x the new coal consumption than the next country (India). Stabilizing the climate means working with China

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· May 23

Here’s the document, in case anyone wants to pick it apart further: unfccc.int/sites/defaul...

Screenshot of the forward (written by Angus Taylor) from the linked document

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· May 23

Authority cited as adjudicated fact, not as evidence. “Modelling undertaken for our Plan confirms it is the right plan for Australia.” The modelling (by DISER and McKinsey) is treated as having ended the argument; the actual model’s assumptions and limitations are not surfaced. The workshop’s “[a source says]” test demolishes this sentence.

Form failure. Calls itself a “Plan” but has neither a plan’s structure (sequenced actions with owners and timing) nor a strategy’s structure (diagnosis + guiding policy + coherent actions). It’s a 121-page brochure.

Audience failure. Filed with the UNFCCC as Australia’s Long-Term Strategy. But the prose register (“Technology not taxes”, “Unlike Labor”, “No Australian jobs will be lost”) is calibrated for domestic political audiences. The named reader and the actual rhetorical reader are different documents glued together.

The third-party critique is well-documented if students want to read it alongside: Climate Action Tracker’s analysis covers the same failure modes from a substantive angle: “It does not introduce any new policies, and relies on global technology trends, carbon offsets and further unknown technology ‘breakthroughs’.”

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· May 23

Actually, the full breakdown is too good not to share

Mistaking goals for strategy (Rumelt’s third hallmark of bad strategy). The whole document is built on goal-statements rather than a theory of how. From the Executive Summary: “This Plan does not rely on taxes and it will not put industries, regions or jobs at risk. No Australian jobs will be lost as a result of the Commonwealth Government’s actions or policies under the Plan.” That’s a set of constraints on action, not a path through obstacles. Rumelt’s test (diagnosis + guiding policy + coherent actions) fails on all three legs.

Fluff. “Our Plan is the right one for Australia. It does not impose new costs on households or businesses.” — assertion functioning as argument. “The Morrison Government’s Long-Term Emissions Reduction Plan sets out the responsible, practical steps we will take over the next 30 years to reduce Australia’s emissions to net zero by 2050, while growing our economy and jobs.” — “responsible, practical” doing no work.

Diagnosis built on generic claims. The document’s diagnosis is essentially: Australia has natural resources, technology costs are falling, therefore technology will deliver. Specific Australian leakage risks, specific sectoral barriers, specific transition challenges are not analytically engaged.

Alternatives strawmanned, not weighed. “Our Plan is built on five key principles, with an enabling role for government. These principles are: 1. Technology not taxes — no new costs for households or businesses…” Carbon pricing isn’t analysed and rejected on the merits; it’s politically dismissed. The alternatives test the workshop teaches (name them, compare them against criteria, acknowledge what your recommendation costs) is entirely absent.

Tradeoffs named once and proceeded past. “While most of our major sectors will grow strongly to 2050, even as the world decarbonises, some sectors will face global headwinds.” Then immediately: “Australia’s coal and gas export industries will continue through to 2050 and beyond, supporting jobs and regional communities.” The tradeoff is named in a clause and then dropped.

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· May 23

I’ve been trying to help my students better understand policy writing as a specific form. In preparing a workshop, I asked Claude to help me find examples of bad policy writing that demonstrated multiple failure modes. It picked Angus Taylor’s 2021 climate policy, calling it “a gift to teaching”

AI prompt:

I want some examples of government net zero strategy documents (or similar) that demonstrate good vs bad writing quality that I can use to get students to see the difference. Look online for published government documents that starkly demonstrate key failure modes

Response:

Strong material. The Australian LTERP is a particularly clean teaching example because the failure modes are quotable from the foreword alone. Here’s what I’d recommend.

The strongest “bad” example

Australia’s Long-Term Emissions Reduction Plan (Morrison Government, October 2021).
URL (canonical, on the UNFCCC site): https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Australias_LTS_WEB.pdf

This document is a teaching gift. Almost every failure mode in the workshop’s watch-for list appears in the first three pages.

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· May 21

China’s approach to your backyard when the party wants to build something in it

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· May 4

The IRGC announced their own 9-dashed line ground.news/article/irgc...

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Apr 13

Jesus was also famously strong on border security.

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Mar 24

Andrew Hastie, at the ANU NSC conference, opens with a vivid description of Russia’s invasion of Andriivka, which completely destroyed the town they were trying to capture. It was documented in the film, 2000 metres to Andriivka. One thing clear about Hastie: he doesn’t lust for war. At all.

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Mar 24

The ANU National Security College conference is hugely reassuring: many issues the community has been concerned about are actually being engaged on a serious level. Panel with George Brandis & state officials covering infrastructure, climate disasters, violent extremism, community safety & cohesion

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Mar 23

I’m at the ANU National Security College’s ‘securing our future’ conference. Rory Medcalf is discussing what Australians are concerned about. He mentions national media literacy to deal with disinformation.

Photo of Rory presenting next to an N.S.C. banner

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Mar 11

Amazing. Actual reporting of the war in Sudan

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Mar 1

Oh, looks like he’s fixed it now. Here’s the screenshot

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Mar 1

Link to the AI chat: poe.com/invite/612eb...

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Mar 1

AI summary of official positions taken by heads of government or foreign ministers in response to the situation in Iran: 5 support theUS/Israel 4 support Iran 9 condemn both 10 condemn Iran but are silent on US/Israel

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Feb 12

They might be disappointed to learn that “continued” is not really the right word

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Feb 11

Wow, that was hard… letmegooglethat.com?q=wind+farms...

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Feb 10

Guess what happens when the government does everything it can to stop investment in renewable energy? Business investment collapses & electricity prices explode.

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jan 29

Compare that $75 billion in new spending to the top 20 national defence budgets:

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jan 28

Bob Katter, jumps from theology to Abraham Lincoln & Alexis de Tocqueville while complaining that the Qld government is unfamiliar with Qld geography, then says "Nowhere else on the planet are there a million people ruled by a government 1000km away." www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/o...

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jan 25

In case his ICE Brownshirt-Gestapo murdering a second innocent civilian wasn’t clear enough about where Trump stands in relation to the free world…

Dominic Meagher@dom-ma· Jan 25

Channel 9 News readers tonight describing Donald Trump as “the leader of the free world” like thy haven’t watched the news since 2015. Here’s a hint: