Eli

@elium2

Leftist political analyst focusing on Georgia & RI. Notorious optimist. | cishet, autistic, 27 📍Sandy Springs, GA elium2.com

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Eli@elium2· 17d

One more data center result from the Republican primary, in Taylor County. Question: “Should Taylor County allow data centers to be built in the county?” 86% of voters said no!

Image from a Georgia ballot:
-11-
“Should Taylor County allow data centers to be built in the county?”
Options “Yes” and “No” are listed, and the voter has bubbled in “No”.

Results for Republican primary question 11 from Taylor County. 142 voters, or 14.07%, said “Yes”, while 867 voters, or 85.93%, said “No”.

Eli@elium2· 27d

“Two paths” meme. “ED Twitter” is at the fork in the road. The paths lead to “posting” and “treatment”. Posting has a sunny background and treatment has a gloomy background.

Eli@elium2· Jul 13

On the Fourth of July my mom found a rupee on the ground. Just like a Zelda game!

The coin bears a pentagon with star-like vertices, an Arabic numeral 5, and the word روپي in calligraphy.

Eli@elium2· Jun 29

Looks like Henderson's 7-count indictment from October was resolved earlier this month by a nolle prosequi, which I believe reinstated him in office. Hmm.

State of Georgia vs. Kenneth Henderson, Case No. 25CR-106, Superior Court of Towns County.

Order
The State having made a Motion to enter a Nolle Prosequi of the above-styled indictment in open court and after consideration of same, said Motion is herein granted for good cause shown. This 4th day of June, 2026. Order signed by the Hon. Randy Rich, Senior Judge, Enotah Judicial Circuit (Towns County Superior Court). Order prepared by District Attorney Pro Temp Frank H. Wood III.

Eli@elium2· Jun 26

Finally, District Attorney. It's a pretty sleepy year, with no contested general elections!

Table of District Attorney ratings.
Rockdale is Uncontested Dem. All other circuits are Uncontested Republican: Atlantic, Columbia, Cordele, Enotah, Northeastern, Pataula, Paulding, Waycross, West Georgia.

Eli@elium2· Jun 26

For the Georgia State House, there are many more competitive districts, although the map still favors Republicans. I rate the chamber Lean Republican majority. #gapol

Summary showing how many State Senate seats are in each category.
Uncontested R: 21
Safe R: 61
Likely R: 9
Lean R: 3
Tilt R: 2
Pure Tossup: 4
Tilt D: 2
Lean D: 1
Likely D: 1
Safe D: 36
Uncontested D: 40

96 seats at least tilt Republican, 80 at least lean Democratic, and 4 are pure tossups. 94 seats at least lean Republican, 78 at least lean Democratic, and 8 are tossups including tilts. Of 180 total seats, 91 are needed to pass laws. My rating for the chamber is Lean Republican majority.

Chart classifying all non-safe seats.
Likely Republican: 19 (Gullett), 25 (T. Jones), 45 (Cooper), 46 (Carson), 47 (J. Jones-open), 49 (Martin), 151 (Cheokas), 154 (Greene), 164 (Stephens). All Republican-held.
Lean Rep: 44 (Parsons-Rep), 128 (M. Jackson-open-Dem), 147 (Ballard-Rep).
Tilt Rep: 48 (Hilton-Rep), 121 (Gisler-Dem)
Pure Tossup: 34 (Seabaugh), 81 (Kahaian), 99 (Reeves), 105 (Donatucci), all Republican-held
Tilt Democratic: 53 (Silcox-Rep), 145 (Herring-Dem)
Lean Dem: 150 (Stinson-Dem)
Likely Dem: 108 (J. Clark-Dem-open)

Eli@elium2· Jun 26

Next up is the Georgia State Senate. Very few of the 56 seats here are realistically competitive. I have just three non-safe seats: SD 37 (Setzler) and SD 48 (Still) are both pure tossups, and SD 42 (open-Strickland) is Likely Republican. All three are GOP-held. Chamber rating: Safe R. #gapol

Map of ratings. Generally, seats south of metro Atlanta are more likely to be uncontested. All three competitive districts contain Atlanta exurbs and suburbs.

Summary showing how many State Senate seats are in each category.
Uncontested R: 10
Safe R: 20
Likely R: 1
Lean/Tilt R: 0
Pure Tossup: 2
Tilt/Lean/Likely D: 0
Safe D: 14
Uncontested D: 9

31 seats at least lean Republican, 23 at least lean Democratic, and 2 are pure tossups. Of 56 total seats, 23 are needed to pass laws. My rating for the chamber is Safe Republican majority.

Table categorizing each non-safe seat. The text color denotes the incumbent party, and italics indicate a retiring incumbent. All information in this table is in the main tweet or the previous table.

Eli@elium2· Jun 26

U.S. House. Every seat is safe for the incumbent party. If things get really bad for Republicans, a couple of these might move to Likely, but it's just very hard for Democrats to pick off any seats on this map.

Republicans have 9 safe seats, all currently held by them: CDs 1, 3, 7-12, and 14. Republican incumbents in CDs 1, 10, and 11 are retiring or seeking higher office. Democrats have 5 safe seats, all currently held by them: CDs 2, 4, 5, 6, and 13. In CD 13, former incumbent David Scott is deceased, with a July special election for his successor.

Eli@elium2· Jun 26

My initial 2026 Georgia ratings are out! First, here are my statewide ratings at the moment. Dems favored for Senate, LG, and PSC D3; GOP favored for Agriculture and Insurance; all others are tossups, three (including Gov) tilting towards Dems, one to Rs, and two pure tossups. #gapol

U.S. Senate: Likely Democratic
Governor: Tilt Dem
Lieutenant Governor: Lean Dem
Sec. of State: Tilt Dem
Attorney General: Pure Tossup
Comm'r of Agriculture: Lean Republican
Comm'r of Insurance: Likely R
State School Superintendent: Tilt Rep
Comm'r of Labor: Pure Tossup
Public Service Commission 3: Lean Dem
PSC 5: Tilt Dem

The chart also provides the incumbent for each seat and the party nominees for the seat.

Eli@elium2· Jun 22

incredible

Image from a White House Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) memo claiming disability rights enforcement under the Olmstead decision has been overbroad. I have highlighted an error where the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division, commonly abbreviated CRD (Charlie-Romeo-Delta), is instead mistakenly abbreviated “CRT” (Charlie-Romeo-Tango).

Eli@elium2· Jun 18

Only legal ad I could find for Gwinnett ran in yesterday's Post, which might be considered *during* the session, affecting the permissible timeline for the bill. (I have removed the news article text out of respect for the publication's paywall.)

Image of page A3 of the Wednesday, June 17 edition of the Gwinnett Daily Post. Includes two news articles, an ad, and three legal notices, including the following: “Notice of Intention to Introduce Legal Legislation: Notice is given that there will be introduced at the 2026 special session of the General Assembly of Georgia a bill to provide a homestead exemption from Gwinnett County ad valorem property taxes; and for other purposes.”

Eli@elium2· Jun 17

The next lieutenant governor of Georgia!

A photo of me with Josh McLaurin. Taken May 19.

Eli@elium2· Jun 17

Far-right candidate David McKalip is leading for school board in Bartow County. Very bad. Seems like just early vote so far.

School Board District 3 (Republican)
Deanna Berry 347 (37.55%)
David McKalip 577 (62.45%)
⅓ precincts reporting

Eli@elium2· Jun 16

Always good to know what former governor Brian Kemp is thinking

AI summary from DuckDuckGo: “Tim Fleming has been endorsed by prominent Republican figures, including former Governor Brian Kemp. He is recognized for his efforts in promoting election integrity and has a strong conservative background.” [Links to Fleming's website and WABE are provided, along with a disclaimer.]

Eli@elium2· Jun 16

Georgia official results website still has not fixed the map feature, where all candidates receive the same color on the map

Screenshot showing the color key for the U.S. Senate primary runoff.

Eli@elium2· Jun 10

Putnam County Republicans asked a straightforward data center question: “Would you be in favor of Data Centers (supporting artificial intelligence) being located in Putnam County?” 68% of Republican primary voters said no. results.sos.ga.gov/results/publ...

“10. Would you be in favor of Data Centers (supporting artificial intelligence) being located in Putnam County?”
The options “Yes” and “No” are listed below, and the voter has bubbled in “No”. This is an image from an actual Georgia ballot.

Party Question 10 – Republican
Yes 31.9% (1,438 votes)
No 68.1% (3,073 votes)

Eli@elium2· Jun 9

Thank you, AI, I did not realize this

I have Googled “Fulton jail Sojourner Grimmett”. Below, Google's AI overview states, “Sojourner Marable Grimmett is not an inmate, but rather a candidate running for the Fulton County Board of Commissioners (District 5). Her platform emphasizes public safety and improving county infrastructure. [Links to Ballotpedia and three other sites] She is on the ballot for the Democratic primary runoff scheduled for June 16, 2026. [Link to Ballotpedia]”
An image of the Fulton County jail displays next to the AI overview.

Eli@elium2· Jun 3

Crawford County Republican Party advisory question on data centers…and the results from the voters.

9. “The Crawford County Planning & Zoning Board is developing regulations and safeguards for data centers. If these protections are in place and data centers are not a burden to the community, would you support allowing a data center in Crawford County?”
[The numeral heading is nearly illegible in the scanned ballot.]

Party Question 9 – Republican
Yes 33.24% (612 votes)
No 66.76% (1,229 votes)

Eli@elium2· May 29

I…don't think the law provides for special elections to have a different qualifying fee? Arguably it should, but it doesn't.

O.C.G.A. § 21-2-131, subsection (a). § 21-2-131 is entitled “Fixing and publishing of qualification fees; manner of payment; distribution of fees paid.”

Subsection (a), paragraph (1) reads as follows.
“(a) Qualification fees for party and public offices shall be fixed and published as follows:
(1)
(A) The governing authority of any county or municipality, not later than February 1 of any year in which a general primary, nonpartisan election, or general election is to be held, and at least 35 days prior to the special primary or election in the case of a special primary or special election, shall fix and publish a qualifying fee for each county or municipal office to be filled in the upcoming primary or election. Except as otherwise provided in subparagraph (B) of this paragraph, such fee shall be 3 percent of the total gross salary of the office paid in the preceding calendar year including all supplements authorized by law if a salaried office.
(B) For [county constitutional offices and magistrates], the qualifying fee shall be 3 percent of the minimum salary specified in [the Official Code of Georgia], exclusive of supplements, cost-of-living increases, and longevity increases. For the office of members of the county governing authority, the qualifying fee shall be 3 percent of the base salary established by local Act of the General Assembly or by Code Section 36-5-25 as adjusted pursuant to Code Section 36-5-24, if applicable, exclusive of compensation supplements for training provided for in Code Section 36-5-27 and cost-of-living adjustments pursuant to Code Section 36-5-28. If not a salaried office, a reasonable fee shall be set by the governing authority of such county or municipality, such fee not to exceed 3 percent of the income derived from such county office by the person holding the office for the preceding year or more than $35.00 for a municipal office;”
Paragraphs (2) and (3) are not relevant but also appear in the screenshot.

Eli@elium2· May 29

Just noticed this, but Columbus set the qualifying fee for its special city council elections at $52.50, and the qualifying fee for the same offices' simultaneous general elections at $360.00. It seems they scaled the fee based on the remaining months in the term? 360*(7/48) is exactly 52.5.

Columbus City Council Resolution No. 005-26, C.A. 01-13-2026 (4).

“A Resolution establishing qualifying fees for county offices of the Consolidated Government to be filled in the 2026 elections. The Council of Columbus, Georgia hereby resolves:
Section 1. Pursuant to O.C.G.A. § 21-2-131, the following qualifying fees for the 2026 elections for four-year terms for the following county offices are fixed as follows:
Office: Fee
Councilor: $360.00
Mayor: $1,950.00
School Board Member: $360.00
State Court Judge: $4,943.00

Section 2. Pursuant to O.C.G.A. § 21-2-131 [the same Code section previously cited], the qualifying fee for the 2026, special elections to fill the vacancies for Columbus Council Districts 1 and 9 for the remainder of the 2026 calendar year are fixed at $52.50.
Section 3. These qualifying fees shall be published in the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer by the Executive Director of the Board of Elections and Registration after signing of this Resolution and prior to February 1, 2026.”

Eli@elium2· May 29

This is how ancestrally Democratic counties work. Starr may well revert to being quite blue in November, but the primary turnout tells us nothing about whether or not it will.

Post by @TheDataNerd13 on Threads:
“The enthusiasm gap in Texas is hard to ignore. Take for example Starr County:
2024 Presidential
🔴 Donald Trump: 9,487 votes
🔵 Kamala Harris: 6,862 votes

2026 Senate Primary
🔵 Democrats: 6,707 votes
🔴 Republicans: 299 votes”

Eli@elium2· May 24

……………

Special Election

One Percent TSPLOST (Vote for One)

Shall a special 1 percent sales and use tax be imposed in the special district consisting of Peach County for a period of time not to exceed six years and for the raising of [sic] estimated amounty [sic] of $35,016,840 for transportation purposes?

Choices: Yes, No

General Obligation Debt (Vote for One)
[This is inexplicably a separate question]
If imposition of the tax is approved by the voters, such vote shall also constitute approval of the issuance of general obligation debt of Peach County in the principal amount of $18,200,000 for the above purpose.

Choices: Yes, No

Eli@elium2· May 23

seems legit (Nancy Boren is the election director)

Candidate information for Isaiah Hugley's mayoral campaign in Columbus. I have highlighted the email address, “NBoren at columbus GA dot org”.

Eli@elium2· May 22

For ease of reference

Tweets by me, May 29, 2020. The first reads “Killer Mike is now speaking at Mayor Bottoms’s press conference.” The second reads “‘Beat up prosecutors you don’t like at the voting booth,’ he says (slight paraphrase).” The second tweet attaches a photo of the conference on WSB (Channel 2). Killer Mike is wearing a black shirt that reads, in all caps, “Kill Your Masters”. The chyron reads “Protest in Street”. Killer Mike stands at the podium in front of Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Police Chief Erika Shields. A split screen displays the protest.

Eli@elium2· May 20

The Columbia County GOP had a similarly loaded opinion question about data centers. Voters said no to it as well.

11. “Should Columbia County favor data center development over additional residential development in the Appling and Harlem areas, given the potential for greater tax revenue and a lower long-term burden on public infrastructure and county?”

Party Question 11 – Republican
Yes 41.25% (8,043 votes)
No 58.75% (11,456 votes)

Eli@elium2· May 20

Glynn County GOP ballot question: “If bringing Data Centers to Glynn County would significantly lower your property taxes, would you be for data centers?” Results:

Yes 43.35% (4,065 votes)
No 56.65% (5,313 votes)

Eli@elium2· May 20

Using the best-fit line, for every 1% increase in Democratic ballot share, Rankin's share went up by 0.57%, but Jordan's share only went up by 0.34%. Scatterplots below (X axis is Dem share):

A scatterplot of each race, showing that while both candidates have a low vote share in redder counties, Rankin outperformed Jordan in bluer counties. Rankin's performance increased very linearly, but Jordan's is a little more scattered.

Eli@elium2· May 20

Clayton County early vote.

Miracle Rankin leads Charlie Bethel by 43%, but Jen Jordan trails Sarah Hawkins Warren by 0.5%.

Eli@elium2· May 14

multiple candidates for judge in the Atlanta area have this image on their website, which really inspires confidence

An obviously AI-generated image of an empty courtroom.

Eli@elium2· May 13

Usually Kemp reserves signing statements for discussing interpretation of the bill or its legality. And then there’s this. Uh, what?