Finbarr Bermingham
@fbermingham
Chief Europe Correspondent at the South China Morning Post. Tracking the shifting tectonic plates of global trade and geopolitics. All posts should be heard in a Fermanagh accent.
Point 380 in the work programme of the new Lithuanian government: "We will normalise diplomatic relations with China to the level of diplomatic representation that exists in other EU member states" (From earlier this month, catching up after time off)
EU trade enforcer (now the point person on China trade policy) Denis Redonnet is briefing on EU-China relations in EP this morning He confirmed my report on plan for China to make "direct purchase commitments, in particular where trade is taking place via government procurement"
We have Chinese trade data this morning for first half of 2026: China's EU exports +16.8% / EU imports +8.7% / surplus with EU +23.7% China's German exports +19% / German imports +1.8% / surplus with Germany +80.8% An 80% (+$10bn) widening in German trade deficit in 6 months
European Parliament voted by a landslide (542 for, 37 against, 79 abstentions) to bolster EU ties with East Asia "Growing influence of authoritarian governance models in the region requires closer cooperation with democratic partners such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan."
. @Aligarciaherrer on steel: "Pressure to replicate it for other sectors will be enormous...if overcapacity policy becomes a queue where loudest incumbents are served first, Europe will spend limited protective capital preserving 20 century industries while ceding those of 21st"
After ten years of writing Trump-adjacent stories, it is quite something to watch football journalists now seemingly encountering his ramblings for the first time...
UEFA: We express our disbelief at such an unprecedented, incomprehensible and unjustifiable decision. Infantino has *somehow* within the space of a few weeks conspired to make both UEFA and European club football look like bastions of integrity. Chapeau 🫡
Finished reading @chadpbown.com & @soumayakeynes.ft.com brilliant new book today, How to Win a Trade War Fully recommend it to those trying to make sense of this brave new world! Seems EU trade officials got through the book before me. "Concentration tax" = diversification instrument? 🤔
Support for EU preference in public procurement tenders: "In defined strategic sectors, we support the introduction of EU preference rules in public funding programmes."
Support for industrial accelerator act "in an adapted form" "To strengthen European demand and resilience in times of geopolitical instability, the Federal Government also supports the rapid adoption of the Industrial Accelerator Act in an adapted form."
Support for tech transfer on investments: "To safeguard economic sovereignty, we consider mandatory tech transfer requirements, on a case-by-case basis appropriate for investments from certain 3rd countries outside Europe in defined strategic sectors and critical infrastructure"
Clamp down on tariff circumvention: "Opportunities to circumvent these protective measures must be effectively prevented, and geo-economic disparities and imbalances must be tackled."
Important signals for EU-China policy in the German reform package: 💥support for safeguards / section 301 for Europe? "Robust protection against unfair competition, particularly through faster and *sector-wide* application of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures at EU level"
New EU anti-dumping probe opened into Chinese batteries. Not *those* batteries. The ones used in your TV remote control or smoke alarm: "non-rechargeable cylindrical alkaline manganese dioxide batteries" Complaint brought by Varta Consumer Batteries (via Joanna Sopinska)
Xi Jinping's speech marking the 105th anniversary of the CCP used words meaning "struggle" or "struggle against" 18 times (via @niubi). sinocism.notion.site...
Despite yesterday's nice words, EU just doubled tariff on above-quota steel imports to 50%, in new quota + tariff regime to replace safeguards, amid a glut of supply largely from China Also tomorrow: €3 handling fee for small parcels comes in, again due to Chinese surge
Now on Reiche - will actually use Mofcom's account of her comments first, since yesterday's German readout was so different from Merz comments Reiche: "German government and business community highly value cooperation with China."
Beijing has overnight published readouts of Wang-Sefcovic and Wang-Reiche meetings First Sefcovic: "Wang Wentao also raised China's concerns regarding the EU's inverter financing ban, the draft amendments to the Cybersecurity Act, and the Industrial Accelerator Act."
Meeting will resume after Sefcovic press conference - a rare joint statement has been agreed - see pic On the first point, rebalancing: Sefcovic says a joint monitoring mechanism of trade flows has been established. Sefcovic: "We'll work with the same agreed numbers"
NEW Sefcovic confirms EU & China launch a new trade & investment consultation platform with 4 prongs 1. Trade and investment rebalancing 2. Export controls 3. Intellectual property rights 4. WTO reform Sefcovic going to Beijing in Autumn, says October deadline for progress
US ambassador Bill White had Belgian police remove 2 journalists after they approached him at a party in a public space commemorating 250 years of the US What would be the reaction if this was China's envoy using Belgian police to eject reporters over an uncomfortable question?
Finally, official commentary from Xinhua calls for "cooling the heat in China-EU trade" - perhaps cc stablemates at GT, Guancha, CCTV "As Europe swelters under severe heatwaves, Chinese-made air conditioners are flying off the shelves, bringing consumers much-needed relief..."
Global Times: the EU holding talks while maintaining plans show it lacks sincerity "EU has shown a distinct lack of sincerity in negotiations, bracing for conflict amid ongoing talks while plotting a barrage of protectionist moves many fear could trigger immediate trade war"
[note: I would take the Guancha post with a pinch of salt, since it thinks the EU's EV tariffs were voted on this month, confusing it I think with the announcement of the Commission's findings in June 2024...]
Hawkish Guancha to Europe: know your place "In an era of escalating global industrial competition & geopolitical risks, Europe continues to position itself as traditional power, failing to acknowledge its declining relative standing in global political & economic landscape"
That point actually seems to be a rare instance of one in which the EU would broadly agree: as I reported this morning, there is no expectation of a major breakthrough. But at the same time, a recognition that dialogue must have a purpose...
Brussels Tea House, state media-linked Substack: Beijing is "deliberately lowering expectations... it won’t accept will not accept 'dialogue for dialogue’s sake' absent substantive concessions" "Risk of tit-for-tat escalation is now higher than at any point since EV dispute"
From CCTV-linked blog Yuyuantantian - annoyed its own premonitions of an EV deal have not materialised? "There have been signs of easing tensions: technical negotiations on EVs have been basically completed & broad consensus has been reached on the price undertaking"