4/4 Current spending is growing at a fast pace up 7.8% so far this year. Sizeable overruns are likely. These are most evident in health. At the end of July, current health spending was overrunning by €0.4 billion.

3/4 Corporation tax receipts continue to rise. July saw the first large tranche of top-up payments related to BEPS Pillar II reforms.

2/4 Underlying tax revenue continues to grow strongly. Both income tax and VAT are growing faster than Budget 2026 forecasts. Policy changes introduced earlier this year have reduced other taxes collected.

11/12 The planned pace of net spending growth in Ireland is faster than the sustainable growth rate of the economy and the fastest in the EU. If this plan is followed, it will continue to leave the public finances highly reliant on risky corporation tax receipts.

9/12 Gross voted spending is forecast to rise by €7 billion next year. As a result, the Summer Economic Statement suggests that spending (net of tax measures) will grow by over 6% in 2027. This follows on from strong growth in previous years.

7/12 Further overruns are now likely. The Council estimates current spending will likely be a further €0.85 billion above the Government’s estimate for 2026, mainly driven by healthcare.

3/12 The vast majority of next year’s spending increase is for current spending. The Government plans to increase current spending by €5.9 billion and capital spending by €1.2 billion. Out of every €6 in spending increases, €5 is for current spending, while €1 is for capital.

Ireland faces a clear choice on climate policy, invest now or pay more later. Dr Killian Carroll explains some of our recent research. Read the full paper on our website: www.fiscalcouncil.ie/the-hidden-c...

4/5 Current spending is growing at a fast pace up 6.8% so far this year. Sizeable overruns are becoming apparent in health. At the end of June, current health spending was overrunning by €0.4 billion.

3/5 Corporation tax receipts continue to rise. Almost €7.5 billion in receipts were collected in the month of June, up €0.1 billion on the same month last year.

2/5 Underlying tax revenue is rising at a faster pace than Budget 2026 forecast. Both income tax and VAT are growing at a faster rate than forecast, policy changes have lowered the tax take from other taxes.

4/6 A credible climate strategy could limit the impact on Ireland’s budget balance to around 1% of GNI*, equivalent to €4 billion today. By contrast, wider inaction and no plan to replace revenues could leave the public finances facing costs two to four times larger by 2050.

1/6 The Council is today releasing a new working paper: The hidden costs of inaction—why a failed climate transition will prove costly.

3/6 When we add corporation tax, the scale of the State’s growing reliance becomes even clearer. Almost €3 in every €10 collected by the State in tax and PRSI receipts came from foreign-owned firms operating in these three sectors in 2024. That’s almost double the 2017 share.

2/6 We focus on the three sectors that pay the most corporation tax: manufacturing, tech, and financial services. Foreign-owned firms in these three sectors paid over €13 billion in payroll taxes and VAT in 2024—more than the Government spent on housing and transport combined.

Ireland's biggest corporation taxpayers also pay lots of income tax, PRSI, & VAT. Have you ever wondered how much? Brian Cronin, author of our latest blog, answers this question. 🔗 Read the blog on our website lnkd.in/exGYra7X & Substack: lnkd.in/eRczv3fh

Today the Fiscal Council releases its latest Fiscal Assessment Report. Niall Conroy, Acting Chief Economist, talks through some of the main findings. You can read the full report at www.fiscalcouncil.ie

9/10 Spending overruns have become a persistent feature of budget policy in Ireland. Since Budget 2024, they have driven nearly 30% (€6.8 billion) of spending increases. Further overruns are already emerging this year, including in health and education.

8/10 The Government has set up new savings funds in recent years to set aside risky corporation tax receipts. Because the Government plans to run modest surpluses, it will need to borrow to fund some of the contributions to its savings funds.

7/10 Out of every €6 it collects in corporation tax, the Government plans on saving €1. The other €5 will be spent. This leaves the public finances less prepared for known and predictable future pressures, such as an ageing population and climate change.

6/10 As a result of fast spending (net of tax policy changes) growth, surpluses are expected to decline in the coming years.

4/10 Ireland's medium-term plan also has the fastest net spending growth in the EU. Ireland is one of the few countries where net spending growth is expected to be faster than the growth of the economy. This plan is not an appropriate guide for budgetary policy.

3/10 Over 2025-2030, spending (net of tax policy changes) is planned to increase by 6.5% per year. This is faster than the sustainable growth rate of the economy (around 5%).

2/10 The Irish economy is still performing well. Employment has reached record-high levels. Real income per person is now 20% higher than in 2019.

1/10 The Fiscal Council’s latest report warns that the Government remains highly reliant on corporation tax and that spending is growing faster than the sustainable growth rate of the economy.

4/4 Current spending is growing fast, up 7.4%, ahead of Budget 2026 forecasts of growth of 6.3%. Health spending is growing particularly fast, up 8.6%, compared to a Budget 2026 forecast of just 4.8%.

3/4 Corporation tax receipts were also strong in May, up 9.7% on last year. Over the last 12 months, corporate tax receipts of €33.5 billion were collected.

2/4 Tax receipts (excluding corporation tax) are up 5.5%, faster than Budget 2026 forecast. VAT receipts (up 7.1%) and income tax receipts (up 7.5%) are both ahead of Budget 2026 forecasts.

4/7 Part of this reflects bad budgeting. In each year from 2023 to 2025, the budget for hospitals was set below the previous year’s actual level of spending. For example, the 2024 budget for acute hospitals was set €0.6 billion below what was actually spent in 2023.

3/7 Hospital spending is the largest area of HSE spending. Over the past three years, hospital spending has overrun by an average of €1.2 billion a year.