Another big trade data discrepancy, this time in Senegal. Their trade data implies the trade deficit has narrowed nearly 90%, from nearly $7bn in mid-2024 to $0.7bn. But the rest of the world is reporting data suggesting Senegal has a $9bn trade deficit

Pretty amazing to see YoY Murban oil price rises of nearly 120% two months ago, and 49% YoY two weeks ago, become just +18% this morning .. and 12% for Brent.

The Malawi fuel price here is what happens when a country runs out of strategic fuel reserves, and is already on the brink of default so can’t afford to subsidise

My new surprise looking at Africa's GDP figures: the biggest 10 countries account for 2/3 of GDP while the bottom half account for just 10% (the smallest 15 countries only 1.8%) Romania is bigger than any economy in Africa The continent as a whole is a little smaller than France (which is 7th)

I do meet a lot of Nigerians in London, but did not realise the UK is responsible for 2/3 of global "inward personal transfers" to Nigeria, at $12bn of $19bn in total in 2023

Foreigners in Japan On the right, the typical controls for a Japanese toilet On the left, a translation polystyrene sticker helpfully provided by the Airbnb host Also on the left, the deep imprints of desperate, frantic foreigners pressing Flush into the translation

I'm less worried about oil going to $100-150/bbl than I am about fuel shortages Countries whose "strategic reserves" barely exist, at 2-4 weeks or less, are usually low income and vulnerable A big SPR release by OECD countries won't easily resolve this (wrong place/wrong type of oil)

I'm less worried about oil going to $100-150/bbl than I am about fuel shortages Countries whose "strategic reserves" barely exist, at 3-4 weeks or less, are usually low income and vulnerable A big SPR release by OECD countries won't easily resolve this (wrong place/type)

Agreed. The one extra point I'd make from the Time Travelling Economist thesis, is that old countries have high savings and low interest rates, so can back innovation, while young countries (mostly in Africa) have low savings and pay high rates, as you'd expect in countries with a teenage median age

Having read How Africa Works, my thread on the other place shows where I agree and disagree with his interesting book But perhaps it's best summed up by this chart The Time Travelling Economist explains why Morocco is industrialising and many in SSA aren't (yet) How Africa Works does not

Commodities are not the solution for east Africa. Populations are mostly too big to make a nation rich, even if they export critical minerals, rare earths, copper or cobalt. When population size was smaller, high commodity prices were more helpful. But still any gain is preferable

Africa's trade take off will come with industrialisation, as happened in Asia. In 1950, China and Korea exported $13 and $15 per person, per year. In 2024, $2,510 and $13,212 Even with the EAC, 2024 east Africa is sub-$300 (next post) (Claude in Excel will be blamed for errors :-))

There are no bears left on gold forecasts. They've all given up. The median forecast for Dec-2026 is now 30% above the extreme record gold price in 2025, which is the highest we've ever seen This despite world peace for 39 of the top 40 economies and globally low inflation Odd

South Africa is getting its mojo back Total vehicle sales the highest since the boom year of 2007 (SA had 49m population then vs 64m now). This is good news even though SA is no longer Africa's biggest producer Morocco (see The Time Travelling Economist for why) has taken first place

What a great year for Frontier markets and Africa in particular Nigeria stock market up 67% in $ Egypt 55% Kenya 51% Morocco 45% And all of them except Morocco are still cheap in p/e terms. US under Trump left far behind, up just 18%. (Latam numbers might change in next few hours)

Another graphic will get attention but as the text explains, is misleading. It excludes new Chinese lending in 2022-24 and bilateral borrowing in 2024. So net inflows/outflows (principal and interest) represented by the X in each year, were probably not negative in 2024

A simple message from a newly released book You usually lose money owning Nigerian domestic bonds You usually make money owning Tanzanian domestic bonds It's a coin-toss (50/50) if you buy Egyptian domestic bonds Regularly negative real rates is how Egypt and Nigeria have avoided default

Again, people trying to explain a symptom (Africa's low credit ratings) and often missing the structural cause. Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s. See The Time Travelling Economist www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I don't get all the fuss about UK growth or the budget. Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget. UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts

Looks like China may have learnt a valuable lesson in its foreign lending practices. There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it. Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)

Human capital index shows why Kenya will be next to industrialise in SSA after Mauritius The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist. Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s. In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”. Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist. Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s. In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”. Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...

China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US

Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever

Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive

I quibble with just one line. He provides good evidence on the first argument ..but in this piece offers no evidence that tax cuts and deregulation would have been more successful Curiously he makes a better argument in justifying Trump calling for interest rate cuts

Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes... He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024

Bernanke, 2008