Alex Garlick
@garlicksauce
UVM prof. Author of "Pre-Existing Conditions: How Lobbying Makes American Health Care More Expensive." I research lobbying, legislatures and health policy. www.alexgarlick.com
I didn't see much in that poll that Trump is dragging Scott down too much. (more people approve him for opposing Trump than vice-versa) His support is still largely based on taxes/financial topics while the state still has a liberal legislature.
no surprise, but education is the #1 issue for those who disapprove of Scott following his school consolidation efforts.
In advance of this fall's gubernatorial election in Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott is not looking as invincible as in years past according to UNH poll.
Crosstabs have an indication of how this is breaking. Janoo appears to be drawing better with progressives/socialists (and non-Kamala '24 voters!) which could be a tangible voting bloc in a low turnout primary. Richards does better with normie Dems.
UNH poll shows tight race for VT Democratic gubernatorial primary. Median voter reports not knowing enough about both top-2 candidates (Janoo/Richards) just a few weeks before the primary. Slight preference for Janoo, but Richards does better head to head. Noisy either way
This could work for journal submissions too. I reviewed a paper the other day I highly suspect to be AI slop and would like to update my priors on the authors. This shouldn't only fall on editors.
FYI this overleaf feature is not ready for prime time. It misses column breaks and hallucinates data
You couldn't make up a better avatar of the 119th Congress than a Congressman who misses all floor votes but still trades stocks.
Some of the strongest evidence I've seen for term limits in the US Senate.
My working theory on Trump's popularity etc. is that Pam Bondi hexed the second Trump administration with her "all that matters is the dow is at 50 thousand" line on Feb. 11.
Vermont, I'm giving a talk at Middlebury this afternoon (first time back as an academic!). Come on by!
I had a student in class ask about the War Powers Act, but I said it was the War Powers Resolution (and doubted myself for a second). Double checking, the WaPo is not helping on this issue.
This quote from @statnews.com's Bob Herman is 1) the thesis of my book, so thanks(?) for that Chuck. 2) Crazy that Schumer talks like this while leading the charge on "affordability" in the upcoming elections.
Every turn in this story on the ICE raid in Burlington is shocking, but ICE being out of line with the other federal agencies needs to be highlighted. This isn't "sanctuary city" policies, this is a rogue agency.
I'm building a list of talented ABDs in case any of my colleagues are considering retirement. It's a contingency around here you just have to be prepared for.
Each of these Playbook paragraphs is more alarming than the one before it (and Politico has made it clear they will grovel for access) 1) Trump's coalition is now the far right Reigious Zionism party. 2) Trump himself is leading this charge in the WH. 3) Nobody takes the words of POTUS seriously.
Trump is dedicated to the "perpetually breaking news cycle", and compared to how Biden handled the press I think it's a relatively successful tactic.
I'm willing to bet every US president since the 1970s was presented with a plan for bombing Iran, and we're seeing why they all avoided that choice very quickly.
I care deeply about WPR/AUMF process, but this is the far more important angle for Congress.
Not what I would use the revenue for, but I admire that Moreno is willing to vote on, you know, the power of the purse.
I think the first Trump admin's bumbling nature gave Trump more of a floor, as many of his less popular ideas were never enacted. Not so much this time around.
Who could've seen this response coming? Oh yeah, anyone that's read my book.
Biden trying to ban tiktok in an election year wasn’t the only reason Democrats blew the 2024 election, but if put it in the top 10.