Jan Null, CCM
@ggweather
SF Bay Area meteorologist for five decades, first as an NWS forecaster and then as founder of Golden Gate Weather Services. Serious amateur photographer.
The Full Moon getting slightly photobombed by a plane rising out of SFO. And this was after it was too foggy in Half Moon Bay, and I headed south to San Gregorio to find a break in the clouds. 7/29/2026
Clear skies? √ No moon? √ Let's head to Pigeon Point at10:30 pm for the Milky Way! √ 7/14/2026
Over the past month, the weekly RONI 3.4 has been tracking right along with 1997, the warmest of the other strong/very strong El Niños at this point in the season.
Sunday sunset color at Pigeon Point Light Station State Historic Park. 7/12/2026
It was too foggy along the coast so I popped over to Crystal Springs Reservoir for tonight's Full Strawberry Moon. 6/29/2026
An updated and more detailed climatology of California Precipitation during Strong and Very Strong El Niño events can be found at www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2026/... . The climatology for all El Niño events has also been updated and improved at www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2026/...
Lots of fun atmospherics with multiple stratified layers to refract tonight's setting sun in some unique ways. 6/10/2026
I am a meteorologist & founder of NoHeatstroke.org, with informaton related to Pediatric Vehicular Heatstroke; and owned by two Vizslas. I recently developed an infographic related to kids in hot cars, and thought it important to adapt it for the pet community.
Ending the week on a colorful note, as a band of high (altocumulus) clouds helped brighten the Friday sunset over Half Moon Bay. 6/5/2026
I've developed a new vehicle heating infographic. Please share and maybe save a life!. More at www.noheatstroke.org
Sunday night Full Moon over the Coast Range east of Half Moon Bay. 5/31/2026
Most of northern and central California remain within about 10% of normal, while much of the south state is well above normal, mostly on the basis of heavy rains in Nov and Dec.
Tonight's Full Moon rising over the Santa Cruz Mountains, and silhouetting the stark remnents of the 2020 CZU Fire. Shot for Pigeon Point. 5/30/2026
When planning and the fog cooperate! Shot from near Gazos State Beach, about 2 miles south of Pigeon Point. 5/30/2026
For an excellent perspective into what goes into understanding ENSO data and producing ENSO forecasts, take the time to watch: "Navigating Uncertainty in Operational El Niño and La Niña Predictions" by Michelle L'Heureux - NOAA CPC. See www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PZY...
7:05 pm. Flow around an area of low pressure aloft over north-central Oregon is triggering some thunderstorms down the Sacramento and the northern San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills.
A tiny (2.7%) sliver of the waxing crescent moon over Half Moon Bay. 5/17/2026
The first clear skies and moonless night in over a month got me up for this 4:30 am shot of our magical MIlky Way at Pigeon Point Lighthouse. 5/16/2026
One of tonight's Jeopardy categories was "WARNING WORTHY WEATHER". Good luck.
Thankfully, the term "Super" is nowhere to be seen, but rather "Very Strong" for a RONI of > 2.0°C. They also note "Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely."
The May CPC ENSO Outlook has just been posted, with signs continuing to point toward at least a strong El Niño next fall and winter. Note that the term "Super" is nowhere to be seen, but rather "Very Strong" for a RONI of > 2.0°C.
Some context to consider about the latest ECMWF Niño3.4 forecast. Looking at the past 9-years of May forecasts, there appears to be a strong warm bias. They are also based old 981-2010 climatology and the old ONI and not the newer RONI. Caveat emptor.
The Peregine Falcon chicks must have been taking a nap, while mom and dad were keeping an eye on thinks near the nesting area. Devil's Slide, 5/6/2026.