Greg Porter
@gporterwx
Senior newsroom meteorologist @ S.F. Chronicle. Boston native ☘️ Ex Scotland resident 🏴. Lover of snowstorms, hurricanes and kitties 🐈⬛
For the record, only one cat 5 storm has been recorded near where #Genevive is located tonight. That was Hurricane Elida, back in 2002. 2002 popped up as one of the big "risky" years for Hawaii in our analysis. www.sfchronicle.com/weather/arti...
#Genevive is the proverbial canary in a coal mine. This storm is making a run a Category 5 status. Thankfully, it will die in a few days with no threat to land. But if there was ever a sign showing that the Pacific Ocean is loaded with heat, this is it.
France and Spain are having an absolutely horrific summer. These images are stark reminders of how we got here.
The islands do not need direct landfall to experience problematic conditions. And after historically wet winter and spring seasons, there is little room for more heavy rain events.
Forecasts show wind shear breaking down south of the islands, leaving a dangerous corridor of high sea surface temperatures for tropical storms and hurricanes to travel through. Fausto is on a similar track More storms are likely to follow.
Our analysis found that tropical storms repeatedly approached Hawaii from the south during summers before strong El Niño events. This year, forecast models show one of Hawaii's natural (wind shear) defenses weakening along that same route.
El Niño years have historically dominated tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific. The strongest example was 2015, when a super El Niño helped produce 16 named storms in the basin, still the modern record.
Keep an eye on hurricane #Fausto. Surprisingly high confidence in a storm track aimed directly at Hawaii early next week. Fausto will likely be a borderline tropical storm by that point, but will still pose a danger to the islands.
A Richmond microclimate day. A strong fetch from the bay kept temperatures in the 70s today. Just north of the Richmond Parkway, temps were in the low 90s.
Another colorful sunset tonight? Most likely! Story here and trying out a new graphic. Tell me what you think! www.sfchronicle.com/weather/arti...
It’s chilly in the east bay this morning 🥶 Thick clouds and temps right around 50 degrees in the Berkeley hills.
Just like that #Bavi is a Super Typhoon. The storm stays over water for now, but will start to threaten land early next week.
The Richmond fireworks are tonight. Clouds might be an issue. We will be right on the edge of a deep marine layer at 9 pm around Marina Bay. Fingers crossed!
With the latest Canadian model data now in, the autumn #ElNiño forecast keeps getting stronger. Across ~650 model runs, the average projection is now near +3°C by November on NOAA’s new Relative Oceanic Niño Index — well above the +2.0°C “very strong” threshold. That’s a remarkable signal.
Cool satellite over the Bay this morning! Trapped "lee waves" forming ripples that barely move. They form when onshore wind flows over the coastal hills and starts oscillating. They are held in place by a moist marine layer pinned under very dry air aloft.
Always good news when the @wsj.com editorial section starts getting nervous! That means we are doing something right!
Fog is back tomorrow morning. And it's likely going to cause some delays at #SFO. Under a half mile visibility at 6am Delays becoming much more common at SFO! www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/s...
A Bay Area weather oddity today. Near 90 in the interior East Bay. But much of the typically toast 101 corridor didn't get out of the 70s. Why? Marine air flooded through the Petaluma Gap and down the length of S.F. Bay, capping temps.
Did I just spend an hour creating a custom high resolution weather forecast for my son's birthday party tomorrow? Yes. Yes, I did.
Yes, it did rain last night! But minuscule amounts. 0.03 inches in downtown S.F. the most rain in June since 2022 (0.22 inches)
The source of the cooling appears to be coming from the ocean itself. Which sounds a bit mysterious, but its actually dangerous. That's a strong signal that the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation is weakening. That could have huge global climate impacts.
Today is my 43rd birthday. The last year and a half has easily been the hardest period of my life. But I’m grateful for finding my way back to my calling. I get to write about the weather for the SF Chronicle, and today I got a copy of the paper and showed it to my 4-year-old son.
4.) Fire weather conditions are still on. Late May rain helped ease concerns for a bit. But it was nowhere near enough to drastically alter the season. The NIFC expects an active summer for NoCal and certainly for OR and WA.
3.) Here comes El Niño The models have been advertising a strong El Niño and now, it's starting to show its teeth. Waters in the equatorial Pacific continue to warm. And the waters off the coast of Peru are already running 4 degrees above normal.