Geoffrey Propheter
@gpropheter
Associate professor at CUDenver. I study prop tax policy & admin, state & local public finance, land development, and sports facility economics. Punk music. Lots of basketball. George Carlin. Big Trouble in Little China, Clue, Bill&Ted. Sac Kings.
It's impossible to counteract this level of public finance ignorance. When you elect public officials that very obviously don't comprehend inconsistencies or contradictions in their fiscal logic, you should expect them to make expensive and wasteful decisions. www.ksat.com/news/local/2...
Stop asking for clawbacks if a team moves. It’s a wasted negotiation parameter. Instead, ask for clawbacks if the team doesn’t win, doesn’t sellout, doesn’t deliver ancillary on time, and if owners/team do something that hurt city/co public image. www.kptv.com/2026/07/18/c...
Done and done. Please journalists, don't ask me about economic impact. Ask me about AI-generated renderings. This is way more enjoyable.
There. My proposed Moda Center renovation renderings. And I'm not asking you to vote to give me money first.
My Bentley comment lacks context in the Bears story. I was responding to a question about credibility/reasonability of fiscal impact estimates by Indiana leg. Here are screenshots of my complete comment, including my fat-fingered typos. www.chicagotribune.com/2026/07/14/c...
As I pointed out to a journalist, under it's 1992 lease, OAC/Rip City had to surrender it's ownership in Moda by no later than 12/31/25 anyway. That the city bought it for $1 in 2024 means a few things but to me the most interesting is that the city overpaid (but did get ownership 1.5 years early).
This always reminds me of this gem of a headline. www.bridgedetroit.com/detroit-city...
The idea that the value of a ptax break is based ONLY on current land use reveals a deeply flawed understanding of land econ. By this logic, govt should own all property bc it would generate no taxes, hence no taxpayer cost, an f'ing bonkers and false claim. www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/comm...
More air tight lawmaker logic. The arena is city owned only bc the city bought it and some land in 2024 from the blazers, costing city taxpayers ~$2m/yr in ptaxes. Now the gov uses that policy choice to give hundreds of millions more in taxpayer resources to the team. www.koin.com/news/portlan...
Caputo’s in Brooklyn…you made the best olive loaf I’ve ever had, and you were a staple of my family’s life while we lived there. Sorry to see you go, and thank you for the memories.
There's enough info to get a ballpark ptax cost estimate of Royals Hallmark HQ stadium proper. Nom is $678 to $1,384 m --- real is $428 to $873 m (at 3%) over 30yrs. Here's a table showing the cost distributed by the public services affected by the proposed exemption.
While we all wait for Royals shenanigans, here's a window into how lawmakers make terrible fiscal and budgeting decisions. It doesn't matter if it's a rounding error. If you dismiss spending millions bc it's a small %, you can always justify taxing and spending more. www.wusf.org/sports/2026-...
I’m sure this has something to do with website building, but how does Armenian get plugged into KMBC’s article about Royals stadium? Curiously, Google says the same typo appeared in a Business Insider Africa article two days ago. Not sports related; just curious.
Fun fact: Oakland Coliseum consultant in 1963 projected $6.3/yr avg (in 2026$) if it got an MLB+NHL team. It got MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL (for a little bit), and still never hit the projection---the annual average through '95 before debt was -$400k (in 2026$). After '95, debt and subsidies explode.
Quote fixed. Just a reminder that when the Cowboys moved to Arlington, Irving's sales tax revenue increased (holding rates constant). fox4kc.com/sports/chief...
No reason for the author to exaggerate here. I collect the data on this. It’s more like a coin toss with direct democracy, but yeah, it’s all but certain the representative democracy route. www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootb...
NJ state Rs still had 30% of their lawmakers support the $300m for the arena, so the whole oligarchy argument falls flat. Maybe get your lawmakers in line first? Then again, KS and MO are full of Rs and they are jonesing to give billionaires loads of taxpayer $s. newjerseymonitor.com/2026/01/13/p...
Ouch. Current est of public resources to the Chiefs is $6.3b (nom) and $4.1b (real). I assume the $2.775b "cap" is all debt financed. Cost comes down if state uses cash. Cap is not what is owed to bond holders but what the state commits to project. $6.3b is rivaled by DC deal for the Commanders.
Want a nutshell summary of how bad this Kansas deal is for taxpayers? So bad that the state couldn't even get the team to comp food for its suite. Even after agreeing to give the team $2.775b.
"strong and thoughtful" subsidies = "expensive to taxpayers, hidden from plain view, and team-centered" signalcleveland.org/cleveland-pr...
So taxing hotels and other businesses in your city is fine but taxing the spurs via revenue sharing is not fine? The rationalizations lawmakers come up with to justify growing team owner wealth at everyone else’s expense never ceases to amaze.
Texas ISDs must itemize ballot measures for sports facility debt. TX ptax debt burden for ISD sports has increased ~x3 since 2006. Do voters behave the same towards pro facilities as high school facilities even tho debt tax security is diff? Here's Spurs vote vs NEISD facility votes. Generally, yes.
Every time I read something about the Bears' continued effort to get more taxpayer money (and frankly of every NFL team threatening to go somewhere), it reminds me of this 1995 gem from long-time Chicago writer Bernie Lincicome. www.thestadiumbusiness.com/2025/11/03/c...
Worth pointing out that the Texas legislature killed HB19 in the spring which would have made it very hard to issue non-voter approved debt for sports facilities. Seems relevant considering city and county taxpayers' increasing debt burdens in SA/Bexar. sanantonioreport.org/decoding-spu...
Sharon Kioko (U of Wash) presented a study of yield diffs btwn GO and rev bonds by sector. Lawmakers use rev bonds for stadiums even though they are more expensive than GO. Why are they more expensive? They don’t generate enough revenue consistently. Why do lawmakers use them? To avoid voters.
Fielded a few Qs about sports subsidy referenda and turnout. More turnout correlates with lower probability of success. Holding vote in Nov of pres election yrs has higher prob of success. Both not stat diff from zero though. Predicted approval rating in the graph based on n=85 since 1980.
This is a false but common interpretation of most states' post-Kelo ED laws. In CO, the Broncos can use ED through a metro district which it controls fully. Courts only need to see that lawmakers believed a project has some public benefit. www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...
This statement is false, and it repeats the falsehood in the cited article. It also trades on ambiguity of the meaning of private. If you limit to strictly private debt for brick and mortar at time of construction, hard rock stad, fedex field, BoA stad also count. www.independent.org/article/2025...
What the f is going on in public finance related journalism? I refuse to believe any “journalist” is this stupid. Econ dev official says tax incentives don’t take money from the govt. Literally that’s what any tax break is.
It's true; I said it. It's also true that I didn't think they'd use that sound bite. I don't recall saying it with the level of enthusiasm that would warrant an exclamation mark. It's tough being a sports policy wonk when there's nothing to be wonky about (yet). denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...