Ben Hanowell
@hanowell
Writing a hybrid memoir + narrative science nonfiction book about the statistical paradox of competing risks and how it applies to my near-death. Posts are my own thoughts. This is a personal account. MEDIO·TUTISSIMUS·IBIS CUSTOS·VIAE·MEDIAE
Writing treatment to inspire the opening of chapter 1 of the book. Meanwhile the prologue, intro, and two of the book’s interludes that sit between two of its three multi-chapter parts, have already been drafted.
In a DAG, courtesy of daggity.net. Greyed-out bubble is unmeasured. AI exposure is the treatment variable. Labor-market outcome is the outcome of interest. Red lines show pathways that bias the estimate of the AI treatment effect.
Real ones know this one. Trivia: Steven Tyler was in his mid-40s when this game, about resisting a dystopian state that bans "youth culture", was released.
My team fired this beautiful man. Can you believe that? I am now a Knicks fan as long as this man is the coach. Mike Brown: I am sorry my home town did you dirty. I didn’t like it then, I’m furious about it now.
I’m getting married tomorrow in this garden (not fully decorated yet) in the back of the house where her mother bore her, a house built before anyone alive today was born.
Getting married in two days. This is the cover of our wedding invitation.
Or we could read simply the kicker and the subhed at the top of the NYT.
Road trip skeeting from the passenger seat is the best kind of skeeting.
I am getting married soon, a year, a month, and 17 days after I died for 17 minutes. My sixteen-year-old daughter will be there to witness. And of course these two will be there. Life is profundity hiding within the mundane. No economy no matter how k-shaped, can take that from you. Stay weird.
I will take this time to beat my competing risk identification problem drum and note that the highlighted passage from the article below by @paulgp.com highlights an issue I have with AI benchmarks: They implicitly assume that tasks in the real world get completed instead of abandoned or repurposed.
Are companies seriously taking a bet that the labor market will never turn around? Because if you think the "ghosting" of the "Great Recession" period and the 2017 tech hiring boom were bad... well...
Ok so it’s worse than I feared. They do the upsampling thing that completely destroys all hope of recovering the base rate, all in the interest of building a binary prediction in low signal to noise context using an arbitrary cutoff that forces a utility function on end users they might not have.
I wonder what was so magical about this particular month. Ah. Must have been AI!
Why exactly would we be surprised by the correlation between AI usage and educational attainment?
Can someone answer me why in god’s name any mention is ever made ever about the S&P 500 or the Dow or whatever hitting a record high? That’s almost like saying “the population has been growing.” No $&@!.
DUDE! People who hire software developers and people who hire software developers knew that AI would change everything all the way back in April 2022!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT IS HOW TRANSFORMATIVE AI IS MANNNNNNNNNNNN ;-)
Add in the all-up rate and the post-2022 movement along with interest rates looks less extreme than it does for info and prof/biz.
Oops. (From @asteriskmag.bsky.social.) There are multiple comparisons being drawn here and even if there were only two error bars plotted, their overlap would not necessarily indicate non-significance at the indicated alpha level. Goodness gracious.