Jan Stropek
@honzastropek
War in Ukraine and related geopolitics
AFU breaks OPSEC and shows first successes on the offensive to Velika Novosilka. From what I see, we are witnessing about three weeks old status!
It seems to affect the weekly ratio, counting complete zero for russian strikes on "zero MLRS" days...
How many of the 2524 old M26 rocket engines will be used to launch GLSDB instead of the not very reliable and unguided DPICM warhead? I'd say this is the real intention beyond this purchase😉
Hi Ragnar, when I see this, what exactly do the 2 days missing ru-strikes mean? Is it lack of data? The separate statistics of individual strike categories seem to not show such data loss. Does it affect the weekly/monthly statistics? Given the current state of the front, it has high importance :-)
No good news for russia today... OFZ 29028 PLACEMENT AUCTION DECLARED VOID
Oh, now I found this picture, should be a 3 day summary from FIRMS and it's quite telling to this topic:
Nevertheless, don't underestimate the storage tanks, they are an unostentatious but important part of the current russian fuel crisis:
What's hidden behind the huge russian fuel crisis, when russia is lacking only about 20% of gasoline and is still producing adequate amount of diesel to cover domestic consumption? It's this boring topic again, the logistic.
This is some 12 days old state from AlexVB - there are some more out of order by now, at least the two in Ufa
Volgograd, Titan-Barricade facility producing launchers for balistic missiles inclusive Oreshnik and Iskander-M. What's striking is that there can't be heard any early warning and completely zero air defense seem to work. At least 3 Flamingos hit the target.
Once these get really out of control, even CBR with Nabiulina won't be able to regain control anymore.
Zelensky just gave Lukashenko one week to remove russian repeaters placed on Belarussian border infrastructure. These devices are helping to guide fire on Ukraine and killing Ukrainians. If they are not removed by Belarus, Ukraine will remove them (by force).
I agree almost completely, but not with the last two paragraphs. Such an expectation does ignore the acceleration of negative trends in russian army and most importantly in the russian economy.
This I wrote some 18 months ago, in the fall 2024, when situation for Ukraine was not easy ... - now we are exactly in the state, when the situation of russia begins to deteriorate rapidly ... who would expect such a turn of events?😉
No it's not - AfD can possibly win, but the elections not going to happen during this war - which in turn will affect the election. The collapse of russian economy is already happening and brutally accelerating - and it's already affecting the outcome of the war for much longer that you may think.
RU economy profited from massive spending in 2023 a 2024. On this example I try to show how fast is the collapse progressing. And the economy has much more problems than just the budget. Btw. budget cuts is one of the reasons of the current ukrainian drone advantage.
I had partially similar idea to this topic already on December 20th, 2024. The trends in their economy were already there. I just let the fantasy work a bit more, the situation changed, the risk of escalation is still there, probably even bigger. But the scenarios probably need a slight update:
There is a clear trend in those budget crisis and the result will be either total collapse of russian finances or some form of nationalisation of deposits also known as "state bankruptcy". Enjoy, I definitely will.
Every time I write about russian economy, people come and tell me, that I'm wrong and that they see no remarkable progress in this direction. On this example I try to show how fast is the collapse progressing. And it's still just part of the problem...
Na počítači mi přestal fungovat Messenger ... tak to posílám v tomto formátu. Ty máš k dispozici VPN?