Interestingly, while smoking rates were plateauing in the years preceding the tax cut, and ticked up again shortly afterwards, they otherwise continued their long downwards trend across the 1990s.

These figures are from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. No prizes for guessing what year taxes started to increase again.

The screenshots are from a Canadian government commissioned report from KPMG published in 1999 (not funded by a tobacco company). Seizures fell 82% in the four years following the tax cut, and declined even further in subsequent years, until taxes were increased again.

Suggestions that cutting tobacco tax cannot reduce the illicit market are wrong. In 1994, the Canadian government slashed their tobacco excise by over 50% (and boosted enforcement) and successfully suppressed the illicit market. Subsequent studies found the tax cut did the heavy lifting. 🧵

Whoa. According to newly released figures from the ABS, in Dec 2025 a staggering 80% of tobacco sold in Australia was illicit! Perhaps it's time for policymakers to listen to someone other than the tobacco control prohibitionists who got us into this mess? #auspol www.abs.gov.au/articles/hou...

Interesting to see this new study on taxation and harm from the IMF. The authors note Australia's "misaligned" approach to tobacco taxation. They also point to the success of New Zealand's approach, noting the (much) less harmful effects of vaping 👇 www.imf.org/en/publicati...

Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia? Want to share your views on the tobacco black market? Join us for a confidential interview. See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.

Not sure it's all that great a mystery why so many teens greatly overestimate how many of their peers actually vape.

This shift has triggered a fiscal crisis. As more consumers turn to illicit nicotine, federal tax revenues have plummeted. The Government’s own budget papers revealed a $5 billion shortfall in tobacco excise revenue in the most recent financial year alone. 📉

Illicit vapes are now the second-largest illicit drug market in Australia after cannabis. Recent declines in smoking are likely due in part to vaping. But this benefit is offset by risks of unregulated products, including nicotine levels far higher than legal limits.

Improve access to less harmful nicotine alternatives, such as vapes and nicotine pouches. They've proven far more effective in reducing smoking faster and more efficiently than anything we're doing here.