Jim Paulsen
@jimwpaulsen
PhD economist by training. 40 years as a Chief Investment Strategist still following the economy & financial markets at
Investors are betting on an AI productivity boom. But "Booms" during the post-war era were when detrended real GDP, employment, & productivity were "all" rising. Today, detrended GDP/jobs is not conducive to a productivity boom. For all the details see paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The price of gold has already declined by about 25% from recent highs. However, if it eventually reconnects with the global money supply as it has in the past it may decline too as low as $2000. See my latest piece "Observations" for this and more @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Capital Investment has been a major support for the US stock market (chart 1). Particularly during its most recent AI run. However, recent restrictive economic policies now suggest investment spending is poised to disappoint in the coming months (chart 2). Ouch! paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Economic policy forces have been mostly "contractionary" in recent months and as the charts below demonstrate, "with a lag", these forces are likely to bring some PAIN to the stock market. For all the details see my latest missive "Policy Pain" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
In 2020-22 real GDP growth, inflation, and yields soared. However, both real economic growth & inflation have since returned to pre-pandemic norms, but the 10-year bond yield has not? Why? See my latest missive "Back to the Future for Bonds" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Recent extreme price action displayed by the SP500 Low Vol Index suggests investors have simultaneously become worried about both missing out (FOMO) and of not being out (NBO). What does this imply for future SP500 performance? See my latest post for free at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The stock market exhibits several bear market symptoms and now "policy pressures" are emerging. For example, the Yield Curve and Fiscal policy have been just as contractionary as they were prior to past bear markets. See my latest post "PRESSURE" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The "Capacity" left in this bull market is dwindling. "Both" S&P 500 Price and EPS are simultaneously more extremely above trendline than at any time since WWII. This suggests below average returns in the coming year. See my full report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
It took 15 years, but the relative price of S&P 500 Old Era stocks has finally broken above its downward trendline. Does this breakout signal a “change in leadership” from New Era to Old Era stocks? See this and more in my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Trading opens today with the S&P 500 Old Era stocks OUTPACING S&P 500 New Era stocks for the first time during the contemporary bull market over any trailing one-year period. Despite AI, is stock market leadership being relinquished by New Era stocks? Changes! PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com
Has the U.S. stock market had new leadership for the last eight months? The contemporary bull market can already be described as a story of two distinct bulls – New Era until last Fall and Broader Market Plays since. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
For all the excitement since the March 30th AI surge, New Era continues to lose its Mojo! See the charts below! New Era stocks no longer look like strong leaders, rather stocks relinquishing leadership. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
During this bull market, investors' risk aversion has faded from their portfolios. The relative performance of low/high beta stocks has declined to its lowest post-war quintile suggesting too much investor optimism - where major market tops occur. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Despite exciting innovations, US real GDP growth unfortunately appears poised to return to the "Demographic Dungeon" of sluggish activity in the coming years as labor force growth normalizes near post-war lows. See my full report on implications at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Investor bullishness is primarily tied to evidence of spectacular EPS momentum. However, EPS Mo has often peaked just before past bear markets or serious corrections. My latest note discusses a few cautionary tales about today's stock market. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The S&P 500 Stock Price Index relative to its post-WWII trendline has surged to one of its highest excess levels since WWII. In April 2025, it was at only 25% but now trades 60% above trendline, higher than anything but the dotcom era. See my latest post at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Recently, the unemployment rate has been rising, and the real wage rate has declined. That is, MISERY on MAIN has increased. As shown by the chart below, Misery on Main has often resulted in a period of Misery on Wall? For my latest thinking see: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
My latest report compares the current RR Frontier between new & old era S&P 500 stocks. Old era provides much greater diversification today and new era greater returns compared to the 1990's bull market suggesting a higher allocation toward old era stocks. See paulsenperspectives.substack.com
As demonstrated below, bond yields are established by a long-term, slow-moving average of past inflation rates. If CPI inflation averages less than 3.75% during the next 4 years, bond yields are poised to "trend lower" for the first time since 2019! See my latest: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Despite a better-than-expected jobs report last Friday, the YOY% gain in US jobs remains essentially ZERO. And, as shown below, recent economic policy tightening is poised to weaken US growth momentum. See my latest report for what this may imply for investors. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The recent new era stock market rally since March 30th is becoming riskier. Old era company profits are not rising, and the rally is being increasing led by riskier small cap and unprofitable tech companies. Sustainable? See my latest report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Did Billionaires sell their technology holdings “before” the recent AI-led surge in the stock market as suggested by the chart below? Will the ultra-rich soon be buying AI to catch-up or do Billionaires know something the rest of us don't? See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Bond yields are tied closely to the stock-bond correlation. Should the Iran conflict soon end, this correlation should turn more positive (reflecting less worry about inflation and more worry about recession) allowing Fed cuts & bond yields to decline. See my latest paulsenperspectives.substack.com
As peace nears, it may be good to recall the old adage "buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets". As the charts below demonstrate, every major oil price spike since 1970 has caused stock market turbulence "after" oil prices peak. See my free report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
New era stocks are simply following the new era economy. But challenges are building for new era stocks. New era growth has recently been extreme, and the lagged impact of economic policy has become negative for new era pursuits. See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
A concern about this bull market being led so heavily by new era plays is nobody understands what causes new era recessions. New era seems recession proof. However, new era must have a Kryptonite? See my latest report for a few candidates at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The new/old era S&P 500 correlation has recently collapsed suggesting that a period of new era sector stock price underperformance may be nearing. Investor bullishness is rising but the rally may not be sustainable. See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
The most important event for investors during the balance of 2026 may be a shift in the country's cultural mindset from fighting inflation toward restoring real economic growth. For all the details, see my latest post highlighted by the charts below @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Most seem confident the US Jobs market is stabilizing, but this chart certainly doesn't suggest all is well on Main Street! No wonder consumer confidence is at record low for May. Are Profits without jobs okay? Is it sustainable? paulsenperspectives.substack.com
My latest missive speaks to ongoing and not widely noticed tech stock challenges. Maybe they haven't regained leadership? A couple concerns shown below. Tech still hasn't regained Oct. relative highs and unprofitable tech is leading. For more concerns, see paulsenperspectives.substack.com