Not much to update since my Sunday post. A stronger system would likely veer northward, while a weaker one would follow a Caribbean path. This second scenario is what is needed to see more ☔️ from Sunday into Monday in PR & DR. (graphics courtesy of @michaelrlowry.bsky.social and NHC)

This week's total solar eclipse is a big deal in Spain. It also crosses Greenland. A partial eclipse will be visible from parts of Canada & U.S. northeastern states. This is unnoticeable for anyone outside unless you use certified eclipse glasses or make a pinhole projection. (@rtphokie.bsky.social)

Easterly waves have been weak this year, exacerbating the Carib drought. A stronger disturbance is expected in about a week; NHC assigns it a medium chance for development. If it develops into a storm, it veers off before reaching the area; if it remains a wave or depression then good 🌧️ in PR & DR.

Water temperatures are warmer than normal (no surprise in this era), but there’ll be very limited windows in which hostile conditions aren’t present. Colorado State continues to forecast below-normal 2026 Atlantic #hurricane season: 9 named storms (including Arthur and Bertha), 4 hurricanes🌀 #ElNiño

A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to impact the Moon at ~5,400 mph on Wed Aug 5 ~2:35 AM EDT. The impact itself will be at the upper left limb (edge) of the Moon, near the Einstein Crater, and is not expected be visible to the naked eye, nor small telescopes (via @rtphokie.bsky.social)

Super Typhoon Dolphin in the Northwest Pacific is the fifth Category 5 cyclone so far in 2026, following Horacio, Sinlaku, Bavi, and Genevieve. More from @climateconnections.bsky.social: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/hist...

Venus is unmissable low in the west after sunset, shining in Leo. Catch it within the first hour or so after sundown before it sets. (via @rtphokie.bsky.social)

Tropical Depression 2, newly formed in the Gulf of Mexico, faces many challenges to be able to consolidate into a hurricane. On paper, then, it makes sense that NHC keeps it from reaching such strength. But I'll remind everyone that Gulf waters are the hottest on record. Because ... well, you know!

With a 5 instead of 3 pm EDT start for the 3rd place consolation #WorldCup match in #Miami today, the heat index will be 101 °F instead of 102°. The wet bulb temperature will be 79, above the 77 °F dangerous humid heat threshold. I would expect a pace like in the Minions viral video (HI 🟨 T 🟥 Td 🟩).

Before, during, and after a disaster, the wealthy 🎩 always fare best while those living paycheck to paycheck suffer economically, physically and mentally for years. Here is a pretty revolting example: www.prnewswire.com/news-release...

Recent Belgian Heatwave Declared Deadliest on Record: “the situation during the peak weekend was so severe that excess mortality surpassed even the worst weekend of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between June 22nd and June 27th, a staggering 1,747 excess deaths were recorded.” #Belgium #heatwave #europe

Worth reposting from Phil Klotzbach’s X feed: “CSU reduces forecast for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and now calls for well below-normal activity: 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes & 1 major hurricane. High likelihood of strong El Niño and associated increase in vertical wind shear the primary factor”

“This is the Britain of 2026 as yet another #heatwave grips the nation. According to the UK Health Security Agency, an estimated 10,781 heat-associated deaths in England were recorded as ‘a direct consequence of heatwaves’ between 2020 & 2024.” Daily Mirror: www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...

Tuesday's forecast is worse than Monday's. For those that are Celsius-challenged, 42 °C = 108 °F. But this isn't a desert, and the humidity will make it feel much hotter. Truly life-threatening stuff in France and many parts of Europe right now. #France  #Heatwave #HotEurope

In 2014, Évelyne Dhéliat’s from TF1, me, and a dozen other weather presenters from around the world were commissioned by @wmo-global.bsky.social to do the weather how we thought it would be in 2050. Turns out we were way too optimistic. Here’s the actual forecast for tomorrow’s highs in France.

Imagine how much faster we'd get here if not for Trump. ourworldindata.org/data-insight...

Tropical Storm Arthur formed today (Wednesday 17 June). In an average year, the first named Atlantic storm forms by 20 June. Hardly a windstorm expected. But watch out for up to a foot of rain. #Arthur #tropics #HurricaneSeason2026

The "shake map" from USGS shows that the magnitude 6.1 earthquake 10 kilometers deep in the Yucatan Channel was felt from Mexico to Florida. There is no tsunami threat.

“Whether it’s fish or insurance: #science matters. And if we dismantle science, it ends up costing all of us in the long run.” Another visit with @katiephang.bsky.social on her widely watched @meidastouch.com platforms, marking the onset of hurricane season. See it here: youtu.be/W1Hri6Edbew?...

Watch Venus draw closer to Jupiter in the evening sky throughout this weekend. By Tuesday they will be separated by about the width of your outstretched pinky. Best views will be about 45 minutes after sunset. (via @rtphokie.bsky.social)

Today at #FTEM2026 in #Orlando, Maureen McCann and I led a discussion on weather warnings, their evolution, and communication in an era of multiplying extreme events. We shared best practices in building trust with your audience.

This was my first TV appearance as hurricane specialist this year, my 5th already on @nbcmiami.com after retiring as chief meteorologist in early 2022. I’ll be here again to guide South Florida audiences through any and all tropical threats in 2026. Thank you always for your trust in me.

I’ll be on TV today launching my 5th year as @nbcmiami.com hurricane specialist. But also look for me on the @wclivestream.bsky.social this evening at 8 ET with a talk about the Great Miami Hurricane’s 100th anniversary. Use this link to subscribe to the YouTube channel: wclivestream.com/watch

My favorite part of being a trustee is greeting and congratulating graduating students, especially those in the small but mighty atmospheric sciences cohort. Not even a soggy and cold Saturday in Ithaca NY can dampen spirits. Go Big Red! #cornell

NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook for the Atlantic aggressively points to below normal activity given the growing confidence for a very powerful El Niño. It is crucially important to remember that climate change is supercharging tropical cyclones that DO form, with higher propensity for Cat 4 & 5.

Nerdy fun celestial event tonight (Sat). The Moon will slide in front of bright star Regulus creating a "lunar occultation" visible from *eastern* PA, MD, VA, NJ, NC, FL. Because the Moon has no atmosphere it won't dim but instead "wink out". No telescope or binoculars are needed.

Today at Cornell University’s Earth & Atmospheric Sciences department we launched the John Morales Award, which will support undergraduate students experiential learning and engagement. Travel support to @ametsoc.org meetings will be a big component, funded by an endowment gift from my wife and me.

One good way to spend Earth Day 🌎 is continuing to serve on the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability advisory council. We work towards reducing climate risk, accelerating the energy transition, increasing food security, and advancing health. What are you thinking of on Earth Day? 🌱 🌳

I don't doubt the Colorado State U forecast for total number of Atlantic storms in 2026, but I worry that more than just 2 will be major hurricanes. A greater proportion of tropical cyclones are reaching Category 4 & 5 intensity in this new era in which ocean heat content is deeper and warmer. 🌀

Takeaways: NHC track forecasts were good again in 2025, now led by AI modeling’s best guidance followed by consensus models. American (GFS) global modeling now about the worst on the planet. Intensity forecasts were not good amidst overall improvements in recent decades. nhc.noaa.gov/verification...