Jason J

@kc5knd

NWS Meteorologist/Master Instructor. Probabilistic forecasting, severe wx, radar, ML/AI, a little bit of this n that!

137 Folgt205 Follower279 Posts

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Jason J@kc5knd· 4d

Interesting watching #ElkFire nr Lake City & how it’s moving in terrain w/ light winds/different fuel densities. Vegetation thins out on slopes of valley wall; heavier timber loads NW of city could produce spotting from embers. Love going fishing at Lake San Christobal & Alpine Loop is a Jeep to-do

Watch Duty map showing the Elk Fire making a run to the southwest. Luckily the slopes around the city don’t have much vegetation limiting the potential a little bit for the fire to get into the city itself. Just Will have to watch for spotting/flying embers into the city.

Satellite view of the terrain and vegetation around Lake City, CO

Jason J@kc5knd· 9d

Just to repeat what everyone else east of the Front Range in Colorado is saying; it was hot today. 105°F felt every bit as hot as back in TX. The 64° this morning was ok except for ozone and particulates trapped near the ground. #cowx

105° high at my casa is hot, just like everyone else in and around Denver is saying…

Jason J@kc5knd· 25d

HT to NWS GRB MIC @kscharf.bsky.social who is providing IDSS with local governmental partners for #airventure #OSH26. Arrivals have started! This is one of the most well orchestrated air traffic control operations for the number of aircraft arriving #adsb

ADSB data for aircraft heading to Oshkosh for the 2026 EAA Airventure

Jason J@kc5knd· 26d

The cycle continues; droughts end in floods. Family across Hill Country & several have said they have never seen it rain so hard with so little lightning. Tipping gauges struggle to keep up; 1 shows around 5” in 7 days while different gauge 1 mi W has almost 10” near one set of family #txwx #flood

Lower Colorado River Authority rain map showing totals from 2 to 17 inches across their forecast domain. Likely underestimates because tipping rain gauges struggle to keep up in heavy rainfall.

Mason, TX airport Remote Automated Weather Station showing almost 10 inches of accumulation over the past7 days; around 6 inches greater than the closest LCRA gauge

Llano (not pronounced yawn-oh but Lan-oh with a hard L) river near Mason, place where I spent many a summer swimming and fishing. Hydrograph showing the flashy nature of the river and a peak into minor flood stage. Lower than many other rivers in the area but still significant.

Jason J@kc5knd· Jul 10

When you ask for tasters & the server comes back with “The bartender pours ‘heavy’” 😳. This after trying a flight ranging from 4 to 9% ABV! Red Rock Brewery in SLC has some good brews, definitely a nice way to wrap up TDY in support of World Cup operations by “The Bureau”!

Asked for tasters of a couple of Red Rock Brewery beers and end up with two additional flights glasses (a tripel and Russian imperial stout)

Jason J@kc5knd· Jul 1

It’s never good when you see pyrocumulus look this way above the #AspenAcresFire. Indicative of intense heat and locally driven meteorological conditions being driven by the fire itself. #cowx

Pyrocumulus, or a cloud produced by the heat of a wildfire, from the Aspen Acres Fire in Colorado taken by an FAA camera.

Jason J@kc5knd· Jul 1

Google is gonna get someone stuck or killed. With 550 closed N of Ouray, it now says Imogene Pass (pucker factor 10 at spots even in my Rubicon) is quickest way to get to Telluride vs 550-62-145 route. 17 is open for limited traffic and gets folks around the closure so 😬 #cowx #goldmountainfire

Google Maps is now routing traffic from Ouray to Telluride across Imogene Pass, a difficult trail even for base 4x4s (and not recommended for most AWD vehicles)! That will not end well…

Jason J@kc5knd· Jun 29

Looking down to the #AspenAcres fire from the FAA camera outside of Cañon City. Looks a lot like the #Marshall fire with the mountain wave being picked up by the smoke. Unfortunately going to see more of this over the coming week(s) with #wildfires. #cowx

Jason J@kc5knd· Jun 21

Glad I got my 15 mile outdoor bike ride in this morning; first part of this week is looking smoky due to the fires in Utah. Bummer because it's a lot more enjoyable being outdoors on the mtn bike than inside on the Peloton. #wildfire #smoke #COwx

Jason J@kc5knd· Jun 10

I wonder what kind of ride N636DK had at FL450 over those storms and what N3ST at FL480 will experience shortly. Especially since much bigger aircraft are noping around those storms... #adsb #avgeek

A D S B image of two private aircraft that were flying at or over 45,000 feet and passed over a line of intense thunderstorms. Wonder what that ride was like, especially since bigger commercial aircraft are going around the storms

Jason J@kc5knd· Jun 2

Interesting #Colorado reception from leave continues; waiting to see if the storms cometh over the mountains about the time I should leave work or not…let’s hope it is mostly rain and not hail #itsbrewing #storms #cowx

11:47 Radar and composite reflectivity image showing storms developing west of the Denver metro. Could bring hail with it!

Jason J@kc5knd· Jun 2

At least I made it stateside but I knew it was going to be a risk getting in late (& all for the “cheaper” option). At least the view of Mt Hood was nice coming in…

Image of the F A A National Airspace System status board showing ground stop in Denver due to storms

Jason J@kc5knd· May 30

Last day in Hội An. Soaking in small things you find on the beach (sand dollar was the size of a dime), tasty cinnamon roll & Cà Phê Sữa Đá, helping Kiddo2 build the 1966 Ford GT40 Lego Kit (dream car of mine). No dinner pics because I was eating all my new favorite foods from this #Vietnam trip!

Sand dollar that was the size of a dime but the macro lens on the iPhone 16 makes it look huuuge!

Cinnamon roll and Cà Phê Sữa Đá at Cozy near A Bang beach. So tasty

Head on view of the completed Lego 1966 Ford GT40 build. Only took 2.5 hours to complete

Jason J@kc5knd· May 26

Da Nang is about 24 km NW & has localized terrain around their site. Regardless, another hot one in store; already 97°F/36°C which is close to where dry adiabatic mixing on sounding gets us. ECMWF EPS gets to 102°F/39°C for the closest grid point. Humidity doesn’t help either; feels like 110° now 🥵

00Z Da Nang sounding showing another hot day in store.

Jason J@kc5knd· May 25

Found another couple of delicious places near old town Hoi An on a 100° day (according to dry adiabatic mixing on the 00Z Da Nang sounding). November Coffee to cool off then Cô Thu BBQ (think pork kabobs you wrap in leafy greens and rice noodle and then rice paper) for lunch. Will be going back!!

Cà phê sữa đá from November Coffee. Also good was the milk tea with brown sugar boba kiddo 2 had

Oops! Halfway through delicious Cô Thu BBQ that we found after a short walk from coffee

Cô Thu BBQ near Old Town Hội An. Will be going back!!!

Hot day in An Bang beach, easily 100° based on dry adiabatic mixing from the 00Z Da Nang sounding…

Jason J@kc5knd· May 21

Interesting article on @gizmodo.com on a battery backup, especially the paragraph on using NWS products to charge batteries depending on weather threats. Wish I had the $$ to get one of these systems to integrate with our Tesla solar (especially since Tesla is so much more $$$).

Jason J@kc5knd· May 18

Back in one of our favorite places; Hội An #Vietnam. A bit hotter & definitely more humid than home but once again bringing storm chances along with me…

Afternoon storms over mountains west of Da Nang

Cà phê sữa đá - iced Vietnamese coffee with sweetened condensed milk

Jason J@kc5knd· May 17

Well, didn’t have a rotating wall cloud and supercell getting undercut by outflow…in the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City #Vietnam on my bucket list… Timelapse looking WSW

Jason J@kc5knd· May 14

And the bright orb in the sky is still out for a while. Ugh…no ☀️🥵 #cowx

Jason J@kc5knd· Apr 28

TBSS to the extreme in the vertical cross section from storm just southeast of KTLX this morning. I miss the days of doing full 0-80° RHIs (bring these back with the Phased Array #Radar please!). Could only select 4 so you get dBZ, BV, SW, and CC for this selection…

Vertical cross section of base reflectivity from KTLX showing a Three Body Scatter Spike.

Vertical cross section of base velocity from KTLX showing a Three Body Scatter Spike.

Vertical cross section of spectrum width from KTLX showing a Three Body Scatter Spike.

Vertical cross section of correlation coefficient from KTLX showing a Three Body Scatter Spike.

Jason J@kc5knd· Apr 26

When I was growing up, this was mostly ranches/rangeland. No telling how much urban sprawl over the last 20 years has put people in the path of this beast of a tornadic circulation. #txwx

Doppler Radar image of possible tornado west northwest of Fort Worth, TX at 10:04 CDT

Jason J@kc5knd· Apr 24

Well hello there #NASA 806, AKA NASA ER-2 cruising at 60kft & picked up in my #adsb receiver. Last time you were in my area was back in ‘97 or ‘98 for the #TRMM TExas-FLorida UNderflights (TEFLUN-A) project when I was an undergrad at A&M. Could listen to flight audio while running ADRAD; good times

NASA806, also known as the NASA ER-2 making an appearance on my ADSB tracker

Jason J@kc5knd· Apr 23

Another #windy day up the hill from work and those gusts are making it down to work campus. Know it’s strong when the wind whistles through the windows and spruce are swaying pretty good. #cowx

Weather observations from NCAR Mesa Lab with several gusts to around 70 MPH.

Jason J@kc5knd· Apr 14

Heckuva way to be welcomed back to KC to facilitate another NWS Foundations class. I’ve got a car but being sleep deprived from an early travel day is not the best way #stormchase (and no navigator). May be another close call for KEAX… #kswx #mowx

Jason J@kc5knd· Apr 4

My JK Unlimited Rubicon just hit 100K miles after 13 years. COVID work-from-home helped delay this; “The White Knight” has been on easy-med trails, lots of winter driving, & too many storm chases to remember. Wish I had a full mechanic’s garage to do 100K maintenance myself, it’s $$$ & lots of time

My Jeep “The White Knight” hit 100,000 miles after 13 years. COVID work from home helped delay this from happening sooner. Now to see how long the Jeep will hold together.

Jason J@kc5knd· Mar 30

Taking advantage of a light evening breeze after watering the spruce and plants that are starting to come out of dormancy. Probably won’t do this often if we continue to dry out. Or natural gas futures go through the roof (both equally possible)…

Enjoying the outdoor fire pit after watering the trees and plants that are starting to grow. Bright orange flames about a foot over the top of the lava rock base

Jason J@kc5knd· Mar 28

My fam has been holding out on me; they brought back spicy fried garlic chili oil from Da Lat, #Vietnam. Found it in spice rack when I got home. Spicy enough to give the scalp tingles and nose run but not obliterate taste buds. N America red peppers must be getting weaker when compared to this stuff

Sa Tế Tỏi Phi or spicy fried garlic chili oil from Da Lat Vietnam. Makes me believe red peppers in North America are getting bred to be less hot/spicy compared to the Asian counterparts

Jason J@kc5knd· Mar 26

Sunrise over KMCI after a successful first NWS Academy training course. 6 to 8 months in development led by amazing team leads, I hope our 51 students are ready to continue their NWS career w/ a solid understanding of probabilistic forecasting & IDSS. Now to iterate & make better for next round!

Sunrise over KMCI airport after a successful 2.5 weeks of the first NWS Academy cohort.

Jason J@kc5knd· Mar 22

Looking to see if I’ve got time for a morning run in KC before the front hits (nope) but did catch this interesting loop of undular bores. Can’t quite remember seeing such clear velocity signatures in the wave pattern either…

Jason J@kc5knd· Mar 11

Easiest. Chase. Ever. Walked out the hotel near the NWS Training Center and had a left mover come just south of us. 3” hail 2 miles south so it was a close call.