Kingston Reif
@kingstonareif
Senior International/Defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. Former DASD for Threat Reduction and Arms Control + Arms Control Association. Wisconsin sports fanatic. Personal account.
“The biggest problem there would be if there are conventional gaps that could be exploited, and then a kind of brinkmanship approach by the opponent to put us in a very just a very unfavorable position.”
"So we're going to be there, but we're going to have a strategy and force posture that is rationally tied to that interest is very important. But in specific cases, you know, non-existential."
"In fact, to the contrary, we are, I would say, very, very attuned to how the other side will perceive, could potentially perceive both force developments and postures, rhetoric, but also you know employment capabilities and options."
"..is to make sure that we have credible, rational nuclear options that a President..adopting the simple principle of being a normal human being with common sense would actually implement. And..that is..what we're doing in the nuclear strategy review"
QUESTION: Would you be comfortable with Saudi Arabia enriching and reprocessing uranium? SECRETARY RUBIO: I’ll let the agreement speak for itself. www.state.gov/releases/off...
"SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, I’m not going to opine directly on that [Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation] agreement...[T]he U.S. is not going to reach any agreement with any country in the world that leads to the risk of proliferation." www.state.gov/releases/off...
"A key provision of the new accord would have American companies build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a joint U.S.-Saudi study determines such a step would be warranted." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
"The Navy and Army are collectively planning to invest over $50 billion to deliver CPS capability, but the Navy is largely making investment decisions on a program-by-program basis, rather than doing so from a portfolio-wide perspective." www.gao.gov/products/gao...
It appears the ground-launched long-range strike missile systems Typhon (Tomahawk+SM-6) and Dark Eagle (aka the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon) will not be going to Germany as part of the Army’s multi domain task force after all. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Notable from the Navy's FY27 shipbuilding request: advanced procurement funding for a 13th + 14th Columbia class SSBN. Current program of record is for 12 boats. "The addition of SSBN838 and SSBN839 is tentative pending the Navy SSBN Force Structure study." www.secnav.navy.mil/fmc/fmb/Docu...
Down from 8.7% in FY26. Due to the enormous proposed FY27 defense topline. This breaks the trend of growth in the share of defense spending consumed by nuclear weapons. Per POTUS' statement in January the initial planning for a nominally flat defense budget would have seen nukes consume ~10%.
DIA Director: "Iran retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs that can threaten U.S. and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure." armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...
The full NNSA weapons activities request has been released: www.energy.gov/cfo/articles.... A snap shot of NNSA's five year/outyear defense spending plans over time. The FY27 FYSNP has the FY28-31 budgets growing at a 2% nominal rate annually.
The $27.44 billion FY27 request for NNSA weapons activities is $3.18 billion (or 13%) more than the FY26 enacted level and $6.1 billion (or 29%) more than the FY25 projection for FY27. There wasnt a FY26 FYNSP, but as of FY25 weapons wasn't slated to exceed $27 billion til FY34.
Is there any evidence that China accelerated its expansion because Biden extended New START? Is there any evidence that had Biden not extended New START and immediately moved to upload China would have thrown up its hands and stopped its expansion? www.nationalreview.com/corner/ameri...
👀 "Chinese officials probably fear [Golden Dome] will reduce Washington’s threshold for initiating military action against Beijing in a crisis, which is likely driving China to focus on using...arms control..., particularly on its space-based elements." www.intelligence.senate.gov/2026/03/17/o...