The UN sees major risks ahead for food security. El Niño droughts in India, Australia and southern Africa often shrink yields for staple grains + oilseeds. Too much rain can hurt wheat crops in Brazil, and so on /6

But food is the first place most people will feel the effects. Peru supplies 20% of the world's fishmeal for raising livestock + farmed fish...but warming oceans have put the harvest on hold. Cue higher input prices for protein /5

Supply chains are a major factor here. El Niño threatens to dry out the Panama Canal as armed conflict crimps other shipping routes. Something similar happened during the last Niño outbreak in 2023-24. The pileup likely added 2.3pp to G20 inflation on imported goods /4

El Niño started in June and will likely stretch into 2027. The worry is that its intense heat + erratic rains will compound months of higher oil import costs from the war. Parts of Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa are most at risk /3

The fast-growing "Super El Niño" is looking like a potential macroeconomic shock for parts of the Global South. Add in geopolitical conflict and...the timing isn't great. New story out from @bloomberg.com 🧵

Trump's new pick to lead FEMA is a familiar name: Cameron Hamilton. He's the former acting chief who got pushed out last year after telling Congress he didn't think FEMA should be abolished. Instead? He'd favored downsizing it "pretty radically," he later told me and @zhirji.bsky.social 🧵