Lew

@lewsos

Chopper of water, carrier of wood, reader of the fucking article

1.838 Folgt2.713 Follower7.494 Posts

Ist das dein Profil?Übernimm es — dann gehört dir lewsos.dirty.social.Profil übernehmen

Lew@lewsos· 26d

There's been a bunch of economic confidence research showing that, and it's in the chart Though this does not measure the economy directly, we know very well in general that the economy is a prime mover for right/wrong direction

Right/wrong direction chart showing a recent uptick in "right direction" and corresponding fall in "wrong direction"

Lew@lewsos· 26d

The faintness of praise is there in the plain text! No cynicism required. But it is still a fact that this govt, which many people thought would self-combust, has not done so, and that is a kind of achievement by Luxo

On the other hand New Zealand First seems to be reaping rewards from National with its third consecutive increase in this poll, and its strongest result in the Reid Research series in nine years.

Despite National rolling out policy that even Labour can't find fault with, such as its compulsory KiwiSaver and baby boost policy or its household solar panel loans, it can't get traction in the polls.

Voters are even starting to feel less gloomy about the economic outlook, but National is just stuck in the mud.

There's a point where Luxon might need to consider whether he's the problem.

History would suggest he's got until eight weeks out from an election to do that and his party could still have electoral success.

That is tight, and various overhang machinations could further complicate the calculation, especially if Te Pati Māori won more than three electorates.

The biggest problem in such a narrow election win for Luxon would be the state of his Cabinet post-coalition talks.

A bigger New Zealand First and Act would significantly reduce the ministerial portfolios and policy wins for National.

Put simply ministers in this term of government could be resigned to select committee chairs if they're lucky, backbenchers if they're not, and if they're really unlucky they won't be in parliament at all.

That's at least three reasons for the National Party MPs not sunning themselves overseas this week to be mulling how best to save themselves.

Over in camp Labour there's reason to celebrate with it holding its position of the largest party in this poll with 34 percentage points, but no obvious path to power.

Lew@lewsos· 26d

What indeed

Poast from @top.org.nz that asks "Why is New Zealand's economy flatlining?

What can we do about it?

Then:

Video not found.
Retry

Lew@lewsos· 28d

O yeah it's NZF or nothing. But there's a nonzero chance it ain't nothing thespinoff.co.nz/politics/08-...

Chris Trotter was off his rocker

A wistful Chris Trotter, union-man-turned-free-speech-man, gave a rousing but outré mid-morning speech, which managed to hit all the populist talking points within 30 minutes. He warned of threats to free speech – as seen in the recent arrest of Graham Linehan, punished “for the crime of upsetting people online” (the court was told Linehan had “relentlessly” posted abusive comments about a teenage transgender campaigner) – as well as a “conspiracy of magicians who can transform into men and women with a puff of a pronouns”, and the benefits of Trumpism and New Zealand First, which maybe aren’t so different: they both value nostalgic times, and they’re both “daggers in the heart” of neoliberalism.

But not all coalition partners are made equal, Trotter warned. For example, there’s housing minister Chris Bishop, who is “determined to stack future generations of New Zealanders 15 storeys high, in the sort of affordable housing made famous by the East Germans”. Or workplace minister Brooke van Velden, otherwise known as “Herr” and apparently inspired by General Pinochet (whose coup killed thousands of communists, so this might be a compliment). And who could forget deputy prime minister David Seymour, who is “perfecting the art of making progressives choke on their breakfast news”.

But we all know NZ First are the best at trolling the left, Trotter declared. There were highs, there were lows, there was a lot of quoting English poet Ebenezer Elliott at the end of it. God save the people.

Lew@lewsos· 28d

Here's one I prepared earlier on this topic

Tweet from me

Lew
@LewSOS
It's like the electability/governing dynamic that powers democratic politics: the skillset required to get elected is vastly different from the skillset required to govern well. Being able to write 600 good words and having something good to say also do not always intersect.
8:58 PM · Sep 21, 2021
·TweetDeck

Lew@lewsos· 28d

We are four months away from potentially being governed by my pinned tweet

My pinned tweet:
Lew
@LewSOS
People who for employment must write a certain number of words about a topic of their own choosing every week tend towards speciousness
11:33 AM · Mar 2, 2017
·TweetDeck

Lew@lewsos· Jul 7

What indeed

Blueski poast from @top.org.nz that reads
"What does Opportunity actually stand for?"

then:

Video not found
Retry

Lew@lewsos· Jul 6

Seems like The Post has done the crucial job of a capital city daily: reporting well-sourced coverage of a nascent government decision so foolish that, in the cold light of day, the minister has been obliged to deny that it was ever going ahead www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...

Education Minister Erica Stanford says she is not pursuing restrictions on Virtual Private Networks as part of her under-16 social media ban, soon after ACT said this would be a red line for it.

The Post reported on Tuesday morning that the Government was pursuing some kind of restriction on VPNs as part of its work on an under-16 social media ban, after being told by multiple sources with knowledge of the work that this was the case.

It had put this to Stanford’s office on Monday morning and not received any denial.

But on Tuesday morning, soon after ACT leader David Seymour made clear that ACT would never support such a move, Stanford’s office emailed The Post to say it was “not looking at restricting or banning VPNs”.

Lew@lewsos· Jun 30

I guess we're about to find out if the Free Speech Union is magnanimous enough to raise money for a millionaire religious extremist to fight a court case in favour of his right to call upon his cult members to purge non-Christian NZers and burn their places of worship down

QT of my post from
Dane Giraud ✡️
@Dane_Giraud
If Tamaki's comments crossed the line into incitement, charge him. But gun confiscations should be connected to risk not speech. No one - including the Police - believes Brian was about to misuse his firearms #FreeSpeech
Quote
Lew
@LewSOS
·
2h
Correct procedure

When an cult leader with a history of inciting his cult members to illegal action starts to escalate into overtly violent extremist rhetoric, he is presumptively no longer fit & proper

And the unlicenced firearm is just a cherry on top

https://rnz.co.nz/news/crime-and-justice/642777/destiny-church-s-brian-tamaki-says-his-guns-have-been-seized-by-police
11:57 AM · Jun 30, 2026
·Twitter Web App

Lew@lewsos· Jun 29

Anyway here is the Arms Act criteria. Seems pretty clear

24AFit and proper person to possess firearm or airgun
(1)

For the purposes of this Act, a member of the Police may find a person is not a fit and proper person to be in possession of a firearm or an airgun if the member of the Police is satisfied that 1 or more of the following circumstances exist:
(a)
the person is charged with or has been convicted of an offence in New Zealand or overseas that is punishable by a term of imprisonment (including, but not limited to, an offence involving violence, drugs, or alcohol):
(b)
the person is charged with or has been convicted of an offence under this Act:
(c)
the person is charged with or has been convicted of an offence against—
(i)
section 231A of the Crimes Act 1961; or
(ii)
the Game Animal Council Act 2013; or
(iii)
the Wildlife Act 1953; or
(iv)
the Wild Animal Control Act 1977:
(ca)
the person has, or has had at any time, a firearms prohibition order made against them:
(d)
the person has, or has had at any time, a temporary protection order made against them under—
(i)
section 79 of the Family Violence Act 2018; or
(ii)
section 14 of the Domestic Violence Act 1995:
(e)
the person has inflicted, or is inflicting, family violence against another person and that other person has grounds under the Family Violence Act 2018 to apply for a protection order in respect of that violence:
(f)
the person has, or has had at any time, a restraining order made against them under the Harassment Act 1997:
(g)
the person has engaged in any conduct involving non-compliance with any requirements of—
(i)
this Act; or
(ii)
any regulations made under this Act; or
(iii)
any conditions to which a permit, licence, or endorsement previously issued to the person under this Act was subject:
(h)
the person shows, or has recently shown, symptoms of a mental or physical illness or injury that may adversely affect their ability to safely possess firearms:
(i)
the person abuses alcohol, or is dependent on alcohol, to an extent that affects detrimenta…

Lew@lewsos· Jun 28

The physical message "I will be there with you because I am one of you" is new in a politics normally defined by rarefied elite separation The nearest high-profile comparable example I can call to mind is this. Putin's a monster but at least seems to understand the value of being seen to stand tall

Vladimir Putin standing to attention in the pouring rain at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow on 22 June 2017, the anniversary of the Nazi invasion of the USSR

Lew@lewsos· Jun 26

I regret to inform that the woke-chud tech-ludd hope-doom Davos-Dubai political compass is good britmonkey.com/2020s-politi...

Your results
77% woke 23% chud
47% techbro 53%luddite
64% hopepilled 36% doomer
94% Davos 6% Dubai

Your closest match: Sanna Marin

Lew@lewsos· Jun 23

I regret to inform that while these poll results do not mean "TOP is definitely happening" they do mean "TOP is not definitely not happening"

Party vote infographic from https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/06/23/poll-big-two-parties-at-30-year-low-opportunity-nears-5-threshold/

LAB 32%
NAT 29%
GRN 13%
NZF 11%
ACT 6%
OPP 4.6%
TPM 1.8%

Lew@lewsos· Jun 19

State of it Call for higher pension rates as cost-of-living increases hit retirees www.rnz.co.nz/news/busines...

David Verry, a budget adviser with North Harbour Budgeting Services, said it was "virtually impossible" to live on NZ Super alone.

"My wife and I are retirees with a bit of extra income from rental properties, but not nearly enough to cover our spending. We are using our KiwiSaver and other superannuation funds to bridge the gap. Costs keep going up across the board - rates, groceries, power, petrol, etc. We got our annual review of our health insurance - major medical for our children, my wife and me, yesterday … a 30 percent increase in the premium. This will take our health insurance to $30,000 per year - we will move to self-insurance and rely on our savings for the future as this is ridiculous.

"There are a lot of retirees with no debts but requiring accommodation supplements and support for ongoing medical costs."

Lew@lewsos· Jun 16

Here is the same metric for Sep 2020 (peak Ardern): Labour ahead in a genuine contest Yes, the right has framing & reputational advantages, and benefits from conventional wisdom/cognitive inertia But it is not destiny and swings in high-salience metrics like this change govts

Slide from the Ipsos Issues Monitor Sep 2020 https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-09/11th_ipsos_new_zealand_issues_monitor_sept_2020.pdf

#1 ISSUE – THE ECONOMY

The Labour Party is seen as the
political party most capable of
managing the number 1 issue of
the economy.
Historically, National party had an
upper hand. However, the
importance of this issue surged
due to the COVID-19 pandemic and
perceptions of The Labour Party’s
ability to manage this #1 issue also
increased significantly at that time.

Feb '18 Jul '18 Oct '18 Mar '19 Apr '19 Jul '19 Nov '19 Mar' 20 May '20 Jul '20 Sept ' 20
New Zealand
First 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2%
Green Party 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2%
ACT 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Lew@lewsos· Jun 16

And look, it's not like National is streets ahead here -- it currently tracks closely to opinion poll support. So this is a winnable policy and discourse space for Labour if they choose to contest it in serious and defensible ways. And if they win it, they could win it all. I wish they would

Slide from the Ipsos Issues Monitor for May 2026 https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-05/25-001841%2032nd%20Ipsos%20Issues%20monitor%20May%202026%20FINAL%20250526.pdf

#3 issue – The economy

Q: What would you say are the three most important issues facing New Zealand today? /
Please select the political party that you believe is most capable of managing each of the
following issues…
 indicates significant increase, /  indicates significant decrease compared to the
previous wave
Base: May ‘26 – Total sample (n=1,001)
 
17
Issue National Party LabourParty Don’t know None
Concern for the economy continues to remain
stable this wave.
National’s perceived ability in managing the issue
continues its upward trend beginning in October
2025. Conversely, Labour’s perceived capability has
dropped for the second wave in a row.
After being neck-and-neck in February, National
now has a 5-point lead on this issue.
The Green Party has seen a significant increase in
perceived ability to manage the economy this
wave.

Sep '23 Feb '24 May '24 Aug '24 Oct '24 Feb '25 May '25 Aug '25 Oct '25 Feb '26 May '26
New Zealand First 4% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6%
Green Party 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7%
ACT 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4%
Te Pāti Māori 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Other 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Issue 24% 25% 27% 29% 28% 30% 32% 30% 32% 33% 33%
National Party 41% 47% 40% 42% 40% 36% 35% 32% 29% 32% 33%
La

Lew@lewsos· Jun 15

Chippy's long-lost cousin

Ron Howard as Richie from Happy Days

He's in his early 20s with red hair and a boyish grin

Lew@lewsos· Jun 15

WGAF that Labour can't or won't do sane maths? Voters. Voters GAF that Labour can't or won't do sane maths. It is the only area where they underperform National, and they seem not to think shaking the narrative that they are economically incompetent is a priority www.ipsos.com/sites/defaul...

Slide from Ipsos Issues Monitor for May 2026 https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-05/25-001841%2032nd%20Ipsos%20Issues%20monitor%20May%202026%20FINAL%20250526.pdf

Political party most capable of managing Top 5 issues
Issue Political party most capable of managing issue
1 Inflation / cost of living Labour
2 Healthcare / hospitals Labour
3 The economy National
4 Petrol prices / Fuel Labour
5 Housing / Price of housing Labour
Labour is seen as the party most capable of managing 4 of the top 5 issues facing New Zealanders including inflation / cost of living, healthcare /
hospitals, housing / price of housing and the fast-rising issue of petrol prices / fuel.
After being seen as equally capable in February 2026, National is now solely perceived as being most capable of managing issues related to the
economy, with a 5ppt difference over Labour.

Lew@lewsos· Jun 12

I'm a petal from an iron rose My kung fu is the iron robe I put you in an iron grave I came up in an ocean with iron waves Back-pedalling You haters let go of my metal wing Clap with this metal thing IGC is my iron family My kids are rough they eat iron candy My girl is tough she wears iron panties

Lew@lewsos· Jun 11

You hate to see it, but it's hard to argue that 1.3 million people can save $1200 annually for Labour's specified cost of $65m Late as it is, I welcome the shift from the govt seeking to drag fiscal maths back into the domain of empirics from the domain of discourse where Steven Joyce left it

Very long tweet from Simeon Brown

Simeon Brown
@SimeonBrownMP
True to form for the Labour Party, the maths behind its very first election-year policy simply doesn’t add up.

Labour is asking New Zealanders to trust them again, but the numbers in their own policy are already falling to pieces.

If Labour can’t get their numbers right on what the policy will cost, they certainly can’t be trusted on their claims about how it will be paid for. We’ve all seen this from Labour before, and history tells us it’ll end up being funded by more taxes and more borrowing.

Labour claims its fare cap policy will:

➡️ Cost $65 million per year.

➡️ Save the average person more than $1,200 per year.

➡️ Benefit around 1.36 million New Zealanders who use public transport every year.

These three claims cannot all be true.

If 1.36 million people are each saving more than $1,200 a year, the cost of delivering those savings would exceed $1.6 billion annually - not $65 million.

On the other hand, if Labour’s $65 million cost estimate is correct, then spread across 1.36 million public transport users, the average benefit is less than a dollar a week.

This is classic Labour. The headline sounds great. The maths falls apart the moment you look at it.

Because Labour’s numbers do not stack up, one of four things must be true:

➡️ The cost has been dramatically understated.

➡️ The claimed savings have been dramatically overstated.

➡️ The number of people who will benefit is far lower than Labour claims.

➡️ Or some combination of all three.

Labour says it has undertaken extensive modelling to support this policy. If that’s true, then Chris Hipkins should front up with it.

Kiwis deserve to know who actually benefits, how much they benefit, and what this policy will really cost taxpayers.

This is straight from the Labour playbook of scamming Kiwis with a glossy headline that sounds nice but will never be delivered. We saw it with light rail, and we saw it with KiwiBuild.

Labour’s policies are riddled with holes. They can’t explain the Future Fund because of the Treaty, and they can’t explain where they will find the capacity to deliver the two million additional GP visits.

Again and again, Labour announces big promises and then expects taxpayers to pick up the bill when reality catches up.

And Kiwis know that Labour’s reality looks like more taxes, more borrowing, higher prices and rising interest rates.
11:42 AM · Jun 11, 2026
·Twitter Web App

Lew@lewsos· Jun 10

Government facing up to $5 billion bill over carbon credits, Treasury reveals www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

Tweet from me from 19 Nov 2025 that reads:

This is a shitpost, but the longer govts do nothing to allocate costs to emitters, the higher the residual liabilities rise

The play is to run out the clock. At some point, paying these liabilities from general taxation will be impossible and we will have no choice but to renege

Lew@lewsos· Jun 8

Without downloading new pics, What is it like to date or be married to you This is an actual DM from the discrod we use for family comms

Discrod post of me saying "Happy 0th anniversary!" with a snip of an automated discrod notification notifying me of my 0-year anniversary with D

who has put up with this exact kind of bullshit from me for thirty long years (will be thirty-one next week)

Lew@lewsos· Jun 5

I dunno about "rescue" but

Tweet from the Free Speech Union

🗣 Free Speech Union ✊
@NZFreeSpeech
A free press is not a luxury. In a healthy democracy it is essential. Without journalists free to scrutinise those in power, citizens cannot know what their government is doing in their name, and a government that cannot be watched cannot be held to account.

That is why the suggestion a newsroom could be censured or suspended from Parliament, after it reported on a Minister's taxpayer-funded accommodation allowance, should concern every New Zealander, not just the journalists involved.

A press that can be barred from Parliament whenever it discomforts those in power is no longer a watchdog. It is a guest, admitted on good behaviour. Reporting on how public money is spent is not overstepping. It is the press doing exactly what a democracy needs it to do.

Rules matter. If a filming rule was genuinely breached, deal with it properly: a clarification, a warning, a defined process. But the response must be proportionate. Barring a whole newsroom from the nation's legislature over a single disputed camera shot is not proportionate. It strikes at the public's ability to hold its government to account.

Clarify the rules. Take the threat of a ban off the table. A Parliament confident in itself does not shut the door on the watchdog.

Lew@lewsos· Jun 1

Resting Sith Face

Lew@lewsos· May 20

One of 697 examples! In this case from the Fisheries (Central Area Commercial Fishing) Regulations 1986

Snip from Fisheries (Central Area Commercial Fishing) Regulations 1986

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/secondary-legislation/pco-drafted/1986/217/en/latest/highlights/?highlight=male#DLM107901

14KSpecial provisions relating to male spiny rock lobster
(1)

Notwithstanding regulation 37 of the Fisheries (Commercial Fishing) Regulations 2001, but subject to regulation 41 of those regulations, any person authorised under a quota to take spiny rock lobster from quota management area CRA3 may take or be in possession of or sell to a licensed fish receiver an undersize male spiny rock lobster, if—
(a)
the spiny rock lobster is taken from quota management area CRA3 during the months of June, July, or August in any year; and
(b)
either—
(i)
the spiny rock lobster was, or (if on board a fishing vessel) is to be, landed at a point lying within quota management area CRA3; or
(ii)
the spiny rock lobster was, or (if on board a fishing vessel) is to be, landed at a point lying outside quota management area CRA3 with the prior approval of the chief executive of the Ministry of Fisheries, and in accordance with such conditions as the chief executive imposes; and
(c)
the spiny rock lobster is, or (if on board a fishing vessel) is to be, delivered and sold to a licensed fish receiver; and
(d)
the width of the tail of the spiny rock lobster is not less than 52 mm when measured in accordance with regulation 14L.
(2)

Notwithstanding regulation 37(2) of the Fisheries (Commercial Fishing) Regulations 2001, but subject to regulation 14M of these regulations, a licensed fish receiver may sell or possess or process a male spiny rock lobster, or male spiny rock lobster tail, taken in accordance with subclause (1) of this regulation.

Lew@lewsos· May 20

A tautology for oxymorons

Snip from the Legislation (Definitions of Woman and Man) Amendment Bill

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/bill/members/2026/296/en/latest/#

13AMeaning of woman or female

In any legislation, regardless of gender identity,—
(a)
woman means an adult human biological female; and
(b)
female means a human biological female.
13BMeaning of man or male

In any legislation, regardless of gender identity,—
(a)
man means an adult human biological male; and
(b)
male means a human biological male.

Lew@lewsos· May 20

Most decisions made by public servants, and explicitly those decisions relating to entitlements & liabilities, are definitionally management decisions based on delegated authority from the Crown via ministers and the departmental hierarchy Therefore

Ye Olde IBM slide that reads

A COMPUTER CAN NEVER BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE

THEREFORE A COMPUTER MUST NEVER MAKE A MANAGEMENT DECISION

Lew@lewsos· May 19

Anyway I been saying

Tweet thread from me from 2021 (with guest appearance from me old mate Larry (@laurief.bsky.social) who I didn't even know was On Here

Lew
@LewSOS
·
Dec 9, 2021
I am in a sector that is currently being replaced by AI (including within this business) and to be quite frank we have more work than we can possibly get on with and are aggressively hiring more actual humans to get on with it
Laurie Fleming
@LaurieFleming
·
Dec 9, 2021
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_One_(software) - I remember being ribbed about this at the time - friends telling me I was out of a job. I love that it’s obsolete…maybe because one of the partners was a Somerset type dealer, and the other a bankrupt former millionaire.
Lew
@LewSOS
·
Dec 9, 2021
Hah, that's deep cut for real. The best and most obvious reckon on it I have ever got was a dairy farmer running a farm with automated robomilkers. He said robo is a high-input system, the machines are expensive, and all the people you need to keep them working are expensive too
You reposted
Lew
@LewSOS
And while there sure are gains to be made in AI, what it does is increase demand for people who can handle the inputs and outputs of AI
12:44 PM · Dec 9, 2021
·TweetDeck

Lew@lewsos· May 19

A few journalists have previously OIA'd ministers' AI use -- Marc Daalder, one of the shrewdest OIA practitioners we have, included this sidebar about how they did it newsroom.co.nz/2026/03/06/h...

How Newsroom sought this information
We carefully worded our requests under the Official Information Act to ensure nearly any ministerial AI use would be covered. This included asking for logs from personal or non-official accounts where relevant, as ministers may not have official accounts for interacting with AI chatbots.

In the end, we submitted the following request to every ministerial office, including those of Parliamentary under-secretaries:

All of the [Minister]’s chat logs with generative AI tools, including but not limited to ChatGPT, Copilot, Claude, etc.
This includes the minister’s chat logs on personal or non-official accounts, where they were acting in an official capacity. Signs of acting in an official capacity could include information relating to social media posts, press releases or other public statements, or information relating to the policies or actions of the Government, of public service agencies or of Ministers.

Lew@lewsos· May 12

* Govt passes bad ambiguous law * People in take legal action in good faith * Courts rule in a way that is inconvenient for govt * Govt gives itself a do-over, killing existing rights and mooting live legal case by unreviewable fiat Libertarians: "best news we've had in a while"