Michael Pettis
@michaelpettis
Senior Fellow at Carnegie China. For speaking engagements, please write to chinfinpettis@yahoo.com
1/2 I just finished re-reading Paul Volcker and Toyoo Gyohten's book, published in 1992, on the management of the global financial system during three previous turbulent decades.
2/4 While many (including in the WTO) will argue that the recent surge in trade policy represents a rise in protectionism, and must be reversed, those of us who have read John Maynard Keynes, Joan Robinson, Michael Kalecki, Ragnar Nurkse, Marriner Eccles, and the history of...
For friends in Beijing, Tuesday night will feature two of the most interesting young bands to come out of the Sally Can't Dance scene.
I just finished rereading Roger Backhouse's excellent history of economic thought. Among other things it reminds us of how diminished economics has become in recent decades, and much economic understanding we have lost, especially on topics of trade, capital flows, welfare, and income distribution.
1/3 For my Chinese friends, CITIC Press, one of China’s largest and most prestigious commercial publishers, has just reissued the Chinese translation of Paul Volcker and Toyoo Gyohten's 1992 book, "Changing Fortunes", for which I was asked to write an introduction.
For my friends in Beijing, tonight's Sally Can't Dance series at Raw Material features one of my favorite new bands in China, Pleasure Posture, featuring three students from CAFA, the most famous art school in China. These guys are truly worth following.
1/8 I just finished reading Chris Miller's excellent book on the collapse of the Soviet Economy. Some people might think that the topic is interesting, but largely irrelevant to global economic conditions today. They would be mistaken. This is a very relevant book.
2/2 At the end of April total social financing amounted to RMB 456.89 trillion, an amount equal to 322% of trailing 4-quarter GDP. At the end of 2025, it was equal to 215% of GDP.
1/2 I just finished David McCullough's 600-page book on the building of the Panama Canal. There was much less economic history here than I would have preferred, but it is nonetheless a great story, even if towards the end there is a little too much trivia.
1/3 To my friends in Beijing, the Sally Can't Dance Tuesday shows have become, over the past nine months, one of the main focal points for experimental and improvised music in Beijing. Because of the holiday, we moved Tuesday's performance to Saturday.
3/6 It is important to understand why the trade issue will be so difficult to resolve. In my 2013 book I argued that global imbalances had become unsustainable, and if they weren't soon reduced, a resurgence of trade conflict was inevitable. In fact trade imbalances increased.
5/5 perhaps for the UK – another major country besides the US in which the financial sector dominates policymaking – no one else wants to pay the economic costs of the exorbitant privilege, which include an overvalued currency, surging debt, and deindustrialization. foreignpolicy.com/2011/09/07/a...
2/5 Or, as Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber wrote in another book, “A country does not ‘choose’ its banking system: rather it gets a banking system that is consistent with the institutions that govern its distribution of political power.”
I just finished reading Sorkin's "1929". It doesn't provide anything new in the way of analysis or explanation of the events of the late 1920s and early 1930s, but it is a lot of fun to read and provides a great deal of color on many well-known primary and secondary (and tertiary) figures.
I just finished reading Ken Rogoff's latest book. Although I have different views on a number of topics, the book nonetheless has many good insights and some very helpful historical data.
1/2 For my friends living in Beijing, our Tuesday night series at Raw Material Space is playing a big role in supporting Chinese underground composers and experimental performers, and we've already had exciting young musicians whose work was...
I just finished William Hogeland's fascinating book on the struggles over finance and credit during the formative period of the US republic, during which radical, egalitarian movements were, for better or worse, defeated by financial elites. Alexander Hamilton comes across as especially brilliant.
3/12 This isn't new. A few of us have been arguing for 10-15 years that China's trade and investment imbalances and its soaring debt are all the result of a highly distorted distribution of income in which households directly and indirectly retain an astonishingly low share.
3/3 Kapoor still thinks that the US economy benefits from an "exorbitant privilege" (I disagree), but it seems that a rising number of analysts now recognize that neither the US nor the global economy benefits from the US role in absorbing global excess saving.
1/2 I just finished Quinn Slobodian's fascinating book on the parallel evolution of globalization and neoliberalism, with the former (according to the latter) requiring specific rules and institutions to "protect" global capitalism from democratic political pressures.
When you do most of your shopping at airports, that's a sign that you travel way too much, but a bookshop in Jakarta airport has one of the best selections of books on finance, economics and economic history I have seen in any airport. I think this is a picture of the bookshop I went to yesterday.
I just finished Chris Miller's very interesting book on the silicon chip industry. Among other things it makes very clear how important chip manufacturing is, and how government intervention and support has been the most important factor in developing national industries.
Caixin: "In a notable shift from the previous year’s objectives, SAFE explicitly committed to “effectively guaranteeing” foreign exchange access for all market players––a move seen as an effort to reassure businesses of currency liquidity amid global volatility." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-01-07/c...
For my friends in Beijing, this Tuesdays' performance will be especially interesting. Not only are Li Jianhong and Yang Haisong performing, but the show will start with a young new trio whose first performance three months ago blew us all away.
I just finished reading Philip Snow's very interesting book on the complicated history of one of the world's most important geo-political relationships.
For my friends in Beijing, this evening we're putting on an especially good show in our weekly series, with performance by Yan Yulong, Yan Jun and Zhang Shouwang, three of the best-known experimental musicians in China.
For my friends in Beijing, tonight two of my favorite Chinese musicians, Li Jianhong and Zhang Shouwang, will put on an improvised performance at Sally Can't Dance. I've never seen them put on less than a brilliant show when they perform together.
2/2 Here is Joyside performing in D22, one of our favorite bands.
1/2 A friend just sent me this picture I had to share. It is of when I had dinner, about 12 years ago with the New York Doll's David Johansen and Sylvain Sylvain and Joyside's Bian Yuan.