Michael Plank
@michaelplanknz
Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Canterbury, NZ. Fellow @royalsocietynz.bsky.social. Math modelling in biology and epidemiology. Bicycles make the world a better place. He/him
Flu season was late to get going this year, but it's here now (and not too late to get a flu jab) www.phfscience.nz/digital-libr...
Spot on commentary by @marcdaalder.bsky.social This especially - I made some of these points (less eloquently) in comments for @smcnz.bsky.social yesterday
Well it had to happen eventually: H5N1 avian influenza has finally made it to NZ www.rnz.co.nz/news/environ... Good surveillance will be key to limiting its impact. A reminder of MPI advice:
On the destruction of New Zealand science peterkdearden.substack.com/p/on-the-des...
Spot on in this nice editorial by David Murdoch and Sarah Jefferies - infectious diseases will continue to surprise us - we need to be ready Expecting the unexpected: the next outbreak will not necessarily look like the last nzmj.org.nz/journal/vol-...
This has got worse, clearly, but to be honest it seems crackers that this has been US policy for the last 20 years: U.S. researchers face new restrictions on publishing with foreign collaborators | Science | AAAS www.science.org/content/arti...
Nice preprint by Ellen Brooks-Pollock and Leon Danon looking at the effect of sample size in social contact surveys on epidemic metrics doi.org/10.64898/202...
You might be interested in this by the excellent @siouxsiew.bsky.social and @xtotl.bsky.social (not for vaccines but similar idea)
There's some amazing work here - an incredible breadth of projects from drug discovery & clinical trials, to avian influenza surveillance, TB control, and community-led initiatives for drinking water safety. Very proud to have contributed in a small way to this www.teniwha.com/news/ebook
I think data is normalized by flow and population esr-cri.shinyapps.io/wastewater/#...
Auckland went from a strict lockdown in Sep to being largely open by Dec. So why did cases peak in Nov and come down to ~50 per day by end of Dec? Well, the % fully vaccinated rose from around 30% in Sep to almost 90% by the end of the year.
What cutting cycleways would really save ratepayers Answer: 3/5ths of naff all as these excellent graphs show www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/3607...
Appalled at the move to disallow voter registration on election day & in the 12 days prior (which >15% of the electorate did last time). No matter what your political allegiances are, erecting barriers to voting is discriminatory and anti-democratic. www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
My jaw hit the floor when I read this. Apparently there are more deaths when immigration is high because they take all the houses?
Feels very ThisIsFine.gif but I'm going to try and do a few more of these Twilight on the Gamack Range, winter 2015
And this is a pretty damning indictment of rich western countries, particularly those sitting on large vaccine stockpiles
Covid levels have been historically low in NZ for the past 12 months but the signs are a new wave may be starting: noticeable increase in wastewater in last couple of weeks, variant with a moderate growth advantage (NB.1.8.1), uptick in cases.