Macro Mike
@middaymacro
Mainly focused on markets, policy, and the economy. Macro Strategist
Used Cars and Trucks prices have had roller coaster ride since the pandemic began. November's jump shows the volatility (and payback now) should continue.
Pretty predictable move and the opposite of why future expectations for business PMIs have been rising (given respondents are more republican leaning)
Predictably, the future expectations index was weaker entirely due to a huge drop in Democrat-leaning respondents. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of price expectations by party affiliation.
"Although high grocery bills may have contributed to the Democrats’ losses in the US election on Nov. 5, Americans can be grateful that the cost of their upcoming Thanksgiving dinner is, in fact, declining. Prices for the holiday’s traditional staples have fallen for a second year." - GZero
October's import/export price report showed greater price pressures than expected. Import prices: ⬆️ 0.3% MoM, ⬆️ 0.8% YoY - Excluding petroleum products, import prices rose 0.2% MoM
Retail sales rose 0.4% in Oct, slightly bettterr than expected. However, the control group was weaker than expected, falling 0.1% MoM.
Selloff in rates on PPI seems overdone even with PCE estimates rising to 0.3% MoM for Oct. Intermediate demand for services was weak due to negative trade prices. Rises in transportation and warehousing likely unsustainable and due to front running expected dockworker strikes and election.