Ted Knutson
@mixedknuts
Founder, StatsBomb, Variance Incorporated. @thetransferflow Daily Rumours newsletter Frmr: Brentford FC, Pinnacle, SB
Juve also look like they have locked up a deal for Randal Kolo Muani (again). At the rumoured €45M obligation to buy, this might be the dumbest deal they have done in a while. (And there are plenty of dumb Juve deals to choose from!)
Kerim Alajbegovic moves from Leverkusen to Juventus (33-40m). Very promising wide left forward. On the one hand, he clearly needs to be taught about finding better shooting locations. On the other hand, there's decent sample to say he's probably a good finisher from range.
Had to limit replies on the other site, but if you send me angry replies here, I'll just nuke you. Thought Cox was right in that Tuchel got ALL the media blame, but the players were spinning before the subs. And England were fucking knackered.
Antonio Silva was my favourite young CB from two summers ago. Bournemouth are apparently my spiritual recruitment club now.
Here are the shot maps and xG for Haaland over the last four seasons in the Premier League. He's still awesome and a good finisher - just not breaking the models in half. Better GK and better defenders made life considerably harder for the viking.
So Nate Silver said, "I don't really think an xG model is going to be suitable for handling Haaland" on the other site and I realised I hadn't looked at Haaland's finishing in ages. When he was a kid, he was OFF THE CHARTS in xG overperformance. But what about the Premier League? (1/x)
When it comes to progressing through World Cup knockouts, I highly recommend not missing your penalties.
On the other hand, Portugal REALLY struggled against DR Congo. They need to find some tactical adjustments or they'll bow out early. You cannot try to appease Homelando forever and get away with it.
It's one match, but that was the most competent and relentless I can remember England being at a major tournament against a decent opponent. I thought they were fairly valued before, but definitely upgraded them on outrights after this.
We're going to find out if the world can bully one of the current best strikers into working harder off the ball. (Because EEVERYONE works harder than Kylian Mbappe.) At this point I am dubious, but it is a VERY fun social football experiment.
Ederson, Atalanta. 2025-26 and 24-25. Two very different head coaches and different roles. A good addition to the Manchester United midfield?
This is what we at @thetransferflow.bsky.social said about Arsenal's transfer business in the summer. Looks like Win Now Mode helped them... win now!
Trendlines are a useful way to interrogate season-long performance. They mostly enable us to ask questions. What questions would you ask about Liverpool and Arne Slot right now? [Doing Variance Betting analysis, per usual.]
On the Hull xG discourse, this is the Championship Expected Goals difference from StatsBomb. Oxford were RELEGATED on a better inclusive xG. [See also: why was your Championship betting so painful this season, unlike most years?]
Every other place I have lived, May is the best month. Then you get England...
Speaking of pristine shot maps (and perhaps most importantly for tonight... Viktor Gyokeres is 3rd in Statsbomb xG after this weekend. He's around what was projected preseason per 90 - it's just all the other CFs are DOWN.
Someone guessed it, so now I can reveal... Second place is BETO from Everton. [At least through this weekend.] Just LOOK at that shot map! Thierno Barry is tied for 5th too.
Erling Haaland is obviously number one in expected goals per 90 in the Premier League, but as of right now... Which player is number 2?
Ferran Torres was a staple of the transfer rumour mill for years, almost completely as a wide forward. I don't think ANYONE expected him to lead* La Liga in xG as a striker at age 26. *I Goodman'd the first posting of this.