I've worked my model back to the Talbot Mills internal that got released and it's extremely revealing of why Labour is not adjusting course: TM is giving them a completely different picture of the election where they are clearly winning and don't need to adjust anything. They're in a total bubble.

Worth noting that TOP is not returning as in control of who governs every time they're over threshold. Because all other parties have incumbents in electorates, even though ACT is in range to sometimes be under threshold, TOP is the only party at risk of not being counted:

In addition to this, here is a short time series of the bloc model share over the last four polls so we can see what things are looking like- given one of these is the RM I am currently inclined to believe polling is very close: (I will run both older and newer polls through this over time)

Here is the single-poll results from that most recent poll, which reflect how close it is. Note RNZ reported both that it was close (correct) and that it gave a win to the three-party right wing coalition, (in my view, incorrect) when in fact that is the third most likely outcome in my sim:

Let's start with this week's recent RNZ-Reid Research poll from the 14th. Here is the data we got from the pollster themselves, nothing new here but I include it as a reminder of the party vote share:

It's also that unemployment is a bad metric for participation in the economy. We should be looking at underutilization which includes people who want to increase their hours, and people who are not looking for a job but would like to get one. The red line below is the trend under this Govt.

Certainly a senior management figure- the sort of person who in the business world would literally have "regional manager" or similar in their job title, but not a *national* one. Had a look into what police say on rank, his is the second highest rank possible in the Criminal Investigation Branch:

Looks a bit like this:

alternative batch, I investigated the hung parliament and this time it's real, not a result of me needing to tweak when TOP qualifies as holding the balance of power like the first time they started showing up

ah, here we are, you're right it is SUPER vague:

Here is a hypothetical $1b reallocation. We now have something worth talking about whether it's a priority within the budget as a whole. But if you can't see it on a chart, it's not worth discussing how much it costs. End of.

I am begging for just one story where the cost of this policy is reported relative to the 2026 total budget. Try and find the fare subsidy on this graph, I'll wait.

Omg, I thought they had stopped stocking these, which are 20% cheaper or so for twice the volume, but in fact they are shelving them to be less visible so you buy more expensive options. So consumer hostile. 🤢

I also swear by this brand for their specialty cleaners. A good specialty cleaner is the only branded thing I'll buy anymore 😂

Bit of a circular problem, that. I think the big hurdle is largely getting people enrolled, the variance isn't particularly stark among enrolled voters:

Me getting an insurance quote: this statistic looks suspicious... Sure enough, they marketed a tautology to me and they still didn't get 100% on it, lol 😅 This feels pretty deceptive.

interesting, I'm pretty happy with this given I have anomalous colourblindness:

worth mentioning for those "it's the only language they'll need!" folks, they should teach their kids another language for their English skills if nothing else:

Box-shaped, lol. Teach me to kitchen post. This is what they were for:

I tried the chef-esque method of cutting Capsicums as if they're Box stayed rather than round, and it's so easy it feels like cheating lol

It continues

also relevant:

Reminds me of this guy 😁 pretty awesome. 😊

Still moving haha

This headline is perfect:

Looks like it:

If you're curious 🙃