Mark Parrington
@mparrington
ECMWF senior scientist working on monitoring global #wildfire emissions, #airquality, atmospheric chemistry & #scicomm for the #CopernicusAtmosphere Monitoring Service @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
Snapshots of dust (left) & biomass burning (right) aerosol optical depth to highlight their estimated contribution the AOD forecast shown above valid for 15z on 23 July
Complex picture for aerosols across the western Mediterranean in the coming days with #SaharanDust + smoke from #wildfires in Spain, France, Italy & Algeria. #CopernicusAtmosphere global AOD forecast 23 July 00z atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
#CopernicusAtmosphere cumulative fire emissions data at regional scale shows NWT continuing to follow extreme years of 2023 & 2014 with 2026 already becoming the most extreme year in terms of emissions for Ontario.
Updated analysis of 2026 Canada #wildfire emissions for 1-18 July showing > average estimated emissions with continuing large-scale fires in Northwest Territories & Ontario. #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS data based on MODIS (+VIIRS in map)🛰️ active fire obs @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
#CopernicusAtmosphere aerosol depth forecast from 18 July 00z showing continuing transport of wildfire smoke across North America & Atlantic (+Saharan dust in W Mediterranean) for coming days atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
Smoke from Canadian #wildfires affecting Great Lakes/NE US in recent days predicted to continue out to the N Atlantic in the #CopernicusAtmosphere aerosol optical depth forecast from 16 July 00z atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
Total estimated wildfire emissions from NWT are currently similar to 2023 (&2014) so far with half of the summer still to come. Although at much smaller scale in terms of emissions, fires in southern regions of Nunavut are already at the highest level for the territory in the 24-year GFAS dataset.
Analysis of 2026 Canada #wildfire emissions up to 9 July with the #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS dataset shows more typical onset and magnitude following the previous three extreme years. Fires have been burning across the country from NWT to Newfoundland. @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
Global total estimated biomass burning emissions between 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2026 have also been the lowest in the 24 years of the #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS dataset. However, there have been some significant fires around the world. Read more atmosphere.copernicus.eu/lowest-globa.... 3/3
Despite the increased Northern Hemisphere fires June global emissions were the lowest in the 24 years of the #CopernicusAtmosphere Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) v1.2 dataset, based on Terra and Aqua MODIS🛰️active fire obs, following continuing decline in tropical African biomass burning. 2/3
Global #wildfires #openburning intensity & emissions for June 2026 in #CopernicusAtmosphere Monitoring Service GFAS data confluence.ecmwf.int/spaces/CKB/p.... Large wildfires developed across Siberia, Canada & SW US plus seasonal tropical fires @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int 1/3
Another view of the predicted smoke transport from the Portugal #wildfires in the #CopernicusAtmosphere biomass burning aerosol optical depth forecast from 4 July, noting also traces of smoke from large fires in Catalunya/NE Spain.
Portugal #wildfires & predicted surface #airquality impacts with enhanced ground-level PM2.5 concentrations for the Iberian Peninsula in the #CopernicusAtmosphere global 5-day forecast from 4 July @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
The charts below show the rapid increase in daily total estimated wildfire emissions for Canada🇨🇦, with the most intense fires currently in NWT & Manitoba but increasing in other provinces. #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS data based on MODIS+VIIRS🛰️ active fire obs.
Rapid increase in #wildfires across Canada in recent days resulting in vast amounts of smoke with plumes transported to the Arctic & across the North Atlantic in the #CopernicusAtmosphere AOD 30 June 00 UTC forecast atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
A clear increase, > 2003-2025 mean, in estimated fire emissions through June from Krasnoyarsk Krai, central Siberia, in the #CopernicusAtmosphere Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) data based on MODIS 🛰️ fire obs. GFAS v1.2 & v1.4.2 available from ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam...
Long-range transport of smoke from Siberia #wildfires to the Arctic Ocean in the #CopernicusAtmosphere aerosol optical depth forecast from 23 June 00UTC ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam.... Noting also some smoke from fires in Northwest Territories🇨🇦 @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
#Saharandust and high ground-level concentrations of PM10 reaching the Caribbean in recent days expected to continue for the first few days of June in #CopernicusAtmosphere 5-day forecasts from 31 May 00 UTC atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
A large plume of #SaharanDust crossing the North Atlantic towards the Caribbean in the last few days of May in the #CopernicusAtmosphere aerosol optical depth forecast initialized 27 May, 00 UTC. Latest charts atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
#CopernicusAtmosphere dust aerosol optical depth forecast from 19 May shows #SaharanDust transport across Canary Is, Iberian Peninsula, W France & UK, with potentially hazy sunsets in the coming days. Latest charts atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
Published today in Remote Sensing MDPI: Long-Term Wildfire Emissions and Smoke-Plume Dynamics in Greece, Kourantos et al. 2026 www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/18...
April has already been a busy month for #SaharanDust and the #CopernicusECWMF dust aerosol optical depth forecast initialized on 10 April at 00 UTC showing more large-scale eastward transport across the Mediterranean region in the coming days. Latest charts atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa...
Copernicus Image of the Day for 31 March showing transboundary haze over the Mekong Region observed by Sentinel-3 satellites on 29 March www.copernicus.eu/en/media/ima... (Credit: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-3 imagery)
#CopernicusAtmosphere PM2.5 forecasts for March 2026 indicated transboundary haze & degraded #airquality across the Upper ASEAN region, despite seasonal biomass burning generally being below average, with several days of daily mean concentrations > @who.int daily exposure guideline of 15μg/m3.
#CopernicusAtmosphere aerosol optical depth forecast initialized at 00 UTC on 30 March showing good prediction of the large-scale haboob which swept across NW Africa on the 30th and reaching Canary Islands on 31st. Data access ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... #SaharanDust #airquality
First 24 hours of 30 March 00 UTC #CopernicusAtmosphere aerosol optical depth forecast showing predicted large-scale #SaharanDust transport across NW Africa, as shown in satellite observations. Full chart atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
#CopernicusAtmosphere dust aerosol optical depth forecast shows a massive #SaharanDust plume crossing NW Africa, W Mediterranean + parts of Europe over the first few days of March. View the latest charts at atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int
The point-based charts (shown below for Lisbon & Porto🇵🇹) show how PM10 concentrations are forecast to develop over the coming days (+the spread of the 11 regional air quality forecasts in the regional ensemble) for any given location in Europe atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa...
The forecast of ground-level PM10 concentrations indicates the #SaharanDust impacts for the Iberian Peninsula in the wider context in relation to #airpollution from human activities in E Europe & Italy's Po Valley #CopernicusAtmosphere #airquality
#CopernicusAtmosphere European regional ensemble dust forecast from 24 Feb shows some surface impacts of #SaharanDust for NW Africa, Portugal & Spain for the next couple of days related to recent #Calima. Latest charts atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int