Neil Lewis, Jr.

@neillewisjr

Behavioral Scientist & Science Communicator. Nancy and Peter Meinig Family Investigator in the Life Sciences and Associate Professor of Communication, Medicine, and Public Policy at Cornell University. More here: neillewisjr.com Personal account

1.251 Folgt30.315 Follower3.376 Posts

Bluesky

Ist das dein Profil?Übernimm es — dann gehört dir neillewisjr.dirty.social.Profil übernehmen

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· 23d

Ok it's back up now. Went down for a few minutes and was showing this. Maybe too many people trying to visit the site at the same time?

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· 23d

They took down the website, but I managed to get a screenshot before they did.

State Department Worldwide Caution security alert.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· 24d

There was a really fascinating paper on this a few years ago: "One-Hit Wonders versus Hit Makers: Sustaining Success in Creative Industries" journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

Creative industries produce many one-hit wonders who struggle to repeat their initial success and fewer hit makers who sustain success over time. To develop theory on the role of creativity in driving sustained market success, I propose a path dependence theory of creators’ careers that considers creators’ whole portfolios of products over time and how their early portfolios shape their later capacity to sustain success. The main idea is that a creator’s path to sustained success depends on the creativity in their portfolio at the time of their initial hit—relatively creative portfolios give creators more options for leveraging their past portfolios while adapting to market changes, increasing their odds of additional hits. I tested the proposed theory using an archival study of the U.S. music industry from 1959–2010, including data on over 3 million songs by 69,050 artists, and the results largely support the hypotheses. Artists who reached their initial hits with relatively creative (novel or varied) portfolios were more likely to generate additional hits, but a novel portfolio was less likely to yield an initial hit than was a typical portfolio. These findings suggest that new creators face a tradeoff between their likelihood of initial versus sustained success, such that building a relatively creative early portfolio is a risky bet that can make or break a creator’s career.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Jun 28

*checks in on results*

Axios: U.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes and meet this week, U.S. official says.

CNBC: Stock futures rise along with oil prices as traders weigh U.S. attacks on Iran over the weekend: Live updates

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Jun 26

I opened a recent paper with this quote, and have been trying to keep it in mind to get through these times. Every time I read NYC news lately it gives me a boost and reminds me of this sentiment.

When Martin Luther King Jr. said “I have a dream,” he was not playing; he was serious. When he imagined it, envisioned it, created it in his own mind it began to be, and we must dream it too to give it the heft and stretch and longevity it deserves. Don't let anybody, anybody convince you this is the way the world is and therefore must be.

—Toni Morrison, The Source of Self-Regard

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Jun 15

I'm just gonna leave this here.

Mayor Mamdani streamed the Knicks game on 130 LinkNYC kiosks across the city.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Jun 12

The winters are rough, but the summers...🤩

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Jun 12

Anyway.... www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/o...

Tehran pushed back on Trump’s claim, with Iranian state-affiliated outlet Fars reporting on Telegram that Tehran had not approved any draft text for an initial memorandum of understanding with Washington.

In a subsequent post, Fars portrayed Trump’s announcement as a step back from his earlier military threats, saying he had failed to present any new elements beyond a proposal Iran had already submitted.

“The reality is that up until now, not only has Iran not given a final response, but it is the US that has returned to its previous demand,” Fars reported in a translated post. “Of course, it seems that given that the US has accepted the text proposed by Iran, there is a possibility of re-examining this text,” according to Fars.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Jun 11

Specifically:

Passage from How Democracies Die on the consequences of authoritarians capturing the parts of government that are meant to be the "referees" in society.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Jun 11

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Jun 11

He says this once a week at this point, yet somehow the market has the same reaction every time, despite it never happening 🤷🏿‍♂️ www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/s...

CNBC: Dow surges 900 points after Trump says U.S. will soon sign deal with Iran, oil falls.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· May 29

"I know the data looks bad, but we've gotta maintain our optimism, guys. LFG!" A pep talk on Wall Street, probably.

CNBC Article "Exxon warns oil inventories will hit dangerously low levels in weeks, forcing prices to shoot higher."

CNBC article: "Oil drops 20% from 2026 peak on optimism over U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks"

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· May 21

Liz shares so much wisdom about communicating science (particularly in these fraught times) and managing the risks associated with doing so. If you are also trying to make sense of the current times and figure out how to meet this moment, I recommend listening to this episode ⤵️

Futures Forum podcast featuring Liz Neeley (and hosted by Jamila Michener and Neil Lewis Jr)

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· May 15

He just released his own statement. This section was...interesting. statements.cornell.edu/2026/2026051...

The second observation regards the questions and narratives that have emerged over the past two weeks. When I shared my experience with the community on May 1st, I did not believe, based on the information I had at the time, that my car had made any contact with anyone. Only when I saw the videos circulating later did I realize that a student had placed himself directly behind the car without my being aware of it as I backed up. Only the following afternoon did I understand that my experience would look very different in the selected video clips posted on social media and be framed in ways that I found genuinely shocking. In the moment, my goal was extricating myself from the situation safely without escalating it. In retrospect, I certainly should have remained in my car, locked it, and called the police.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· May 11

Timeline cleanse

Waterfall in bottom half, green trees and sunset in the top half

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· May 1

Happy Friday 🌷

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Apr 29

One of the most clarifying passages I've ever read on what "polarization" actually means in the U.S."

Excerpt from the book How Democracies Die.

"America's democratic norms, then, were born in a context of exclusion. As long as the political community was restricted largely to whites, Democrats and Republicans had much in common. Neither party was likely to view the other as an existential threat. The process of racial inclusion that began after World War II and culminated in the 1964 Civil Rights Act and 1965 Voting Rights Act would, at long last, fully democratization the United States. But it would also polarized it, posing the greatest challenge to established forms of mutual tolerating and forbearance since Reconstruction."

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Apr 23

Timeline cleanse

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Apr 23

AI is turbo-charging Brandolini's law

The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Apr 22

I always learn a lot from reading @victorerikray.bsky.social’s work. Because of that, @povertyscholar.bsky.social and I were thrilled to have him on Futures Forum to help us make sense of the current moment. You can listen to our conversation here: equitablefutures.cornell.edu/reading-the-...

Futures Forum podcast with Jamila Michener, Neil Lewis Jr, and Victor Ray

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Apr 11

3/3. As the award summary notes:

Today, you can enter “black hole collisions” into any Web browser and be dazzled by extraordinary images of deep space encounters. Who would have guessed that our everyday access to these spectacular pictures would have been made possible by the federally funded research that sought to explore this seemingly obscure astronomical knowledge?

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Apr 8

A paper I think about a lot these days. "People high in the motivation to express prejudice are relatively likely to resist pressure to support programs promoting intergroup contact and vote for political candidates who support oppressive policies." pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

Academic paper: The motivation to express prejudice.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Apr 2

Every time someone asks me about Black conservatives, I tap this sign. @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social academic.oup.com/poq/article-...

Academic paper: "The Curious Case of Black "Conservatives": Assessing the Validity of the Liberal-Conservative Scale Among Black Americans.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Mar 31

Anyway

“(Today’s market move) is not justified by the news,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist for B. Riley Financial. “This is the market telling you it was coiled up for any kind of good news.”

Markets could U-turn tomorrow. But, for now, traders are gearing up for another TACO.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Mar 31

Totally reasonable way to run an economy. www.cnn.com/2026/03/31/i...

“They’re waking up every morning, going to sleep every night, rubbing their hands together, thinking, ‘This is great. All I got to do is be on the right end of the giant roller coaster, and everything’s going to be fine,’” said Dan Alpert, managing partner of Westwood Capital.

In other words: Even if markets don’t believe a word of what Trump says, it’s better to make money by giving him the benefit of the doubt than to lose money while ignoring him. Traders aren’t just worried about a TACO – they’re trying to take advantage of the situation.

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Mar 21

Shame can be good sometimes. journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Academic article: "Shame Broadcasts Social Norms: The Positive Social Effects of Shame on Norm Acquisition and Nortmative Behavior."

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Mar 17

Something else that stood out to me in the report: Note that Greek-affiliated here means Fraternity and Sorority.

"Some key findings of the 2025 survey are:
● 35% of Cornell undergraduate women (23% in 2023) and 8% of men (9% in 2023) reported experiencing a sexual assault during their time at Cornell.
● 52% of Cornell undergraduate women who are Greek-affiliated reported experiencing a sexual assault, compared to 29% of those who are not Greek-affiliated.
● The most common location for a sexual assault to occur was at a residence hall (29%) followed by an off-campus residence (23%), and a fraternity chapter house (17%; the 2023 data indicated that 6% occurred in a fraternity annex).

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Mar 11

"What's going on?

I'm in this photo and I don't like it."

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Mar 5

I think some of the processes in here apply to this issue as well. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Academic paper: Why don't we learn from poor choices? The consistency of expectation, choice, and memory clouds the lessons of experience

Neil Lewis, Jr.@neillewisjr· Feb 22

This seems to meet the federal definitions of child abuse and neglect, no? www.hhs.gov/answers/prog...