Nick Korte
@nickkorte
Content is focused on: NFL contract analysis, especially toward the Denver Broncos Over The Cap contributor Being the Compensatory Picks Guy™
Jonathan Taylor's new contract wasn't added in the database yet when I issued the first tweet, but he ranks four spots below Saquon Barkley, as follows:
I'm happy to see all players get paid, including running backs. But the recent RB extensions still pale in comparison to their predecessors. None of the active contracts by APY make the top 25 on record when adjusted for the salary cap at signing.
Cordell Volson does have up to $1M in playtime incentives, at $200k each for each 10% increment from 50% to 90%. If he earns all of those, Noah Fant would leap up into the top 32, and push out the Ravens' 7th round 2027 compensatory to be the first to miss the cut, as follows:
I've gone ahead and made a temporary exception to the code to reflect where the Giants' 4th round 2027 compensatory pick would rank right now. Right in between the Packers' picks--although the Malik Willis 4th is likely to move up the list.
If Austin Schlottmann plays at least 90% of the snaps, in addition to a playtime boost in the compensatory formula, he would earn $800,000 in playtime incentives. This is what the Giants' cancellation chart would look like if that happened:
Austin Schlottman as the starting center for the Titans is what the Giants and their fans want to see, as a full season of snaps likely seals a 4th round compensatory pick for Wan'Dale Robinson leaving--also to Nashville.
Vita Vea is due $18M in 2026. By APY, 18 interior defensive linemen are earning at least that amount or more.
Also, while I'm biased, I really hope that Chris Harris Jr. gets at least a little Hall of Fame consideration down the road. He was dominant at his peak in defending the rise of the slot receiver. This play in the 2015 AFC Championship Gave always gives me good chills.
I always love commentary about the 2011 rookie class, be sure to give this one a read. I always marvel at the top half of the 1st round. Unless you took a QB not named Cam Newton, you were likely getting at least a very good player.
Not surprising to see the Broncos where they are on the chart, although there will be a regular caveat as to whether or not they maximally prorate option bonuses--if not, that would draw them away from the left side of this scatterplot.
Regarding the Broncos' OL, they have a few young players waiting in the wings in Alex Palczewski & Frank Crum under contract for 2 more seasons, and drafted Kage Casey for a yet to be determined OL position. It's fine if they draft more OL in 2027, but I would not see as urgent.
The top half of the 2021 NFL Draft is reminiscent of the top half of 2011. 12 excelling players, only 1 QB as such, and 3 other QBs were not.
Article 6, Section 1 of the CBA, with the highlighting mine: https://overthecap.com/collective-bargaining-agreement/article/6/section/1 A very smart and elegant way to effectively put a one season suspension on Brendan Sorsby for at least the NFL's own purpose.
Finally, I'd add that the state of the Broncos roster In early March of 2024 was pretty good. The players in green were or would become Pro Bowlers, & the players in blue have been at least solid starters. Do the Dolphins or Cardinals have that kind of roster? I don't know…
Here is a list of rounds where each team is ineligible to place an offer in the 2026 Supplemental Draft:
Now that OTC has full details on the new Patrick Mahomes contract, I thought that I would visualize the annual cash flow with a divider between his previous and new contract. His APY on the previous one ended up being $47.6375M. The APY on his new contract is a shade over $63M.
Excellent. The Paton/Payton team will stay together in Denver through the duration of the current CBA.
The Bengals could have restructured as much as $19.228M in cap dollars from his $25.25M base salary. They decide to go with a little more than half of that amount today.
As I look through stretches of schedule difficulty, this section for the Chargers strikes me as a Yikes. Good for them they open with the Cardinals and Raiders...
Steelers paying out some hefty money to their EDGEs: •TJ Watt: $41M APY •Nick Herbig: $25M APY •Alex Highsmith: $17M APY Watt is due $32M in 2026 (fully guaranteed), and Highsmith is due $14.5M (not guaranteed).
I suppose I'll add this perspective too: even with a $10M raise, his APY comes in at $26.5M, which just makes the cut for 4th place, and still well below the three leaders at his position. https://overthecap.com/position/cornerback
With Broncos OTAs starting tomorrow, I took a look at how the 2026 season plays out means for 2027 roster decisions. There are plenty of pending unrestricted free agents to consider—including Marvin Mims, Riley Moss, JaQuan McMillian, Brandon Jones, Ben Powers. And as for this:
So the only 1st round pick the Rams didn't trade away over a 9 year span gets traded anyway after just 2 seasons...
Here's a little puckish fun as we enter June during a slow time in the NFL: The AFC West race since 2010:
And survey says... No one can reasonably dissent from giving the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt to bounce back. But after that? Moar Cowboys, and moar NFC East as 4 of the next 5 teams that overachieved in this metric.
Let's just say I'm quite glad that the Colts did not draw the Broncos this season, because there would have been some...layups to include in this schedule release otherwise.
The Broncos have currently gone the longest without beating the Rams than any other opponent. The last time they beat them was in 2002. And now they get to try to end that drought on Sunday Night Football.
Great to see Tim Patrick still grinding. I'm sure that Darren Mougey knows of his dedication to the game from their time together in Denver.
As I always do at this time of year, I evaluate the prescription of what I'd like to see the Broncos do in my road map versus what they actually did. This was the most important thing to do, and it happened right about when I felt it would.
Two games announced now, and both have the Cowboys against an NFC East opponent. At least this is a long standing Thanksgiving tradition for Dallas.