Volewica

@nigel-purchase

Lapsed neo-liberal, economist, former fund manager, fantasy & SF author, loves Ancient Greek, indifferent clarinettist & sax player. #Xitter exile. Deeply worried about #ClimateChange. Mastodon: **No** DMs, please

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Ist das dein Profil?Übernimm es — dann gehört dir nigel-purchase.dirty.social.Profil übernehmen

Volewica@nigel-purchase· 28d

@albomp.bsky.social

Volewica@nigel-purchase· 29d

SpaceX plunges towards issue price. [Chart from Trading Economics]

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jul 7

This is expressed relative to the 1991 -2020 average, which was already up from pre-industrial levels. Here's what *air* temperature looks like from 1850. (from my blog post: volewica.blogspot.com/2026/03/glob...)

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jul 6

Yeah, they remove *components* which have big rises or big falls. But, since I am analysing 50 economies and hundreds of time series, I don't have the time for that sort of detail! This is what xtrm adjustment looks like with S&P Global's Oz manufacturing PMI (overlap = identical value)

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jul 3

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 29

Picture of Farage smiling cynically, with headline "90% of Reform-supporting comments on social media are bots.

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 29

I calculate it slightly differently—YoY % change in the unadjusted index, and YoY % change in the smoothed (13-term Henderson curve) unadjusted index, and also get a peak. Of course, the index is distorted by the on-off electricity subsidies, but the Trump effect has been quite small.

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 25

Good instincts. Good advice. Are you going to listen, Dems?

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 15

Captain Cankles' birthday

GazzaFromGrongGrong

Guardian Pick

It’s Donnie’s birthday, eh FD?
The narcissist supreme,
the strutting, venal Daddy’s boy,
is eighty, it would seem,
a gaseous rage-tweeting blimp,
a bulging bag of bile,
an anti-science charlatan,
a venal crocodile
who wants to be an autocrat,
an orange Putin clone
surrounded by his acolytes,
a king upon his throne.

And now he celebrates the day
he happened to be born
by staging vicious knock-down fights
upon the White House lawn,
a symbol of his government,
depravity run wild,
a hotbed of incompetence,
democracy defiled
as Donnie devastates the world,
yet still avoids a cell,
so as a gift I’ve organised
a special place in Hell.

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 14

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 13

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 12

@albomp.bsky.social More recession pointers.

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 12

@albomp.bsky.social Heading for recession

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 10

volewica.blogspot.com/2019/06/why-...

I've talked about this before, here, and here and here. Neo-liberalism clearly isn't delivering for 90% of the population. It's only logical therefore, if you are a voter, to consider voting for someone who might deliver for you. And the danger for our democracy is that people who have lost hope might vote (and have voted) for the Right. Populists such as Trump make big claims about what they'll do for "ordinary" people, but don't deliver. And to prop up their vote, the Right constructs scapegoats to explain why their policies aren't making working people better off: Mexicans, Jews, immigrants, "Leftists", Blacks, gays ......

Until left-wing parties reconnect to their base, i.e., the poor and the working class, with policies which raise the living standards of ordinary people, the rise of populist right-wing parties will be hard to fight. Neo-liberalism has failed, and it's time for a re-think. We certainly won't be getting any new ideas from the Right, because they are still too enamoured of tired dogmas and failed philosophies. So it is up to the Centre and the Left to re-calibrate, not by moving right and continuing to support the discredited notion of trickle-down capitalism, but by attempting to shift the Overton window so that new, effective policies which stimulate growth along with equality and a good environment come to seem logical and obvious. Right now, neo-liberalism is the default position. And that won't do, anymore.

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Jun 8

Volewica@nigel-purchase· May 28

From Jeff Tiedrich President Rottinghands McCankles declares himself to be in perfect health

Volewica@nigel-purchase· May 24

Volewica@nigel-purchase· May 19

The Iran War is starting to affect economies. Trump is incapable of securing peace. It is only going to get worse.

Volewica@nigel-purchase· May 10

Volewica@nigel-purchase· May 8

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Apr 27

We're heading for a DEEEEP recession. "Lowest reading since 1983". We are looking at an economic catastrophe. And Trump has no idea how to get peace. [From Trading Economics]

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Apr 20

A thing of beauty is a joy forever.

Volewica@nigel-purchase· Apr 14

From a comment in the Guardian Yes, to everything.