J
@nihilscio
"There's more to life than a little money, you know. Don't you know that? And here you are. And it's a beautiful day." he/him 🏳️🌈 from 🇺🇸 (MN->MI), speak fr🇫🇷 pt🇧🇷 es🇲🇽
Both winning and losing candidates have been extremely gracious to each other in almost* every primary race this year, whether the Sanders/Warren faction wins (Abdul, Peggy) or the more moderate faction wins (Crowley here). *there is one unfortunate high profile exception. best ignored imo.
FWIW: NYT's live model is currently showing an estimated final margin of Abdul + 2.6, fwiw. but a Stevens win well within margin of possibility
only 3% of the vote in Wayne county (includes Detroit) is in, but Abdul is currently leading in Wayne county 50-47
Just knocked 25 doors for Abdul El-Sayed. I had conversations with 10 voters, which is a way higher ratio than I remember in 2024! Some strong Abdul supporters, some leaning Stevens, lots undecided. I love conversations at the doors. I’ll canvas for the Dem nominee this fall, whoever it is.
Emerson is out this morning: El-Sayed 54 Stevens 39 High quality pollster. Even just a simple average of the most recent 5 now gives Abdul +9. And that’s giving equal weight to the oldest poll of the bunch which now looks like an outlier. There’s always still uncertainty, especially in primaries!
When you average the 4 most recent polls together, including this one released today, you get Abdul +8. In a primary with sparse polling, I wouldn't be surprised at an outcome anywhere from Stevens +12 to Abdul +28. If you're in MI and you care about this race, VOTE and get your friends to vote.
I feel seen by this piece. I got emotional reading it because it's the first bit of writing I've seen from anyone on the subject that actually connects with my experience of this race. Thank you, @rtraister.bsky.social.
Receipts for AES tying himself to Platner. After Mills dropped out, his campaign praised Platner and said “Abdul is that candidate here in Michigan” And asked supporters to split their donations to Platner and Abdul. I cite this only to say: don’t permanently write off all ex Platner supporters.
The NYT/Siena poll is a serious, high-quality poll. Their senate numbers out today are better for Republicans than current polling averages in all states. That's bad news. If voters make the choices in November that this poll thinks they're on track to make, they'll be further empowering Trump.
Kinda surprised I ended up so far from the center on either axis. I guess I would sum up my position like this: I think what LLMs are currently doing is already concerningly close to what human minds do — and the consequences of this are really unpredictable and we should therefore slow down / stop
Idk which answers made me more Carney than Mamdani, but I like Carney just fine, so sure.
Opinion among Democratic voters has shifted dramatically in a pro-Palestine direction. One thing happening in tonight's primaries is that voters are choosing candidates who better align with their view on this important foreign policy issue.
With several atrocious new polls for president today, the NYT polling *average* for Trump approval now reads 38% approve 58% disapprove That is an all time high disapproval and an all time low approval in this average
“From those reckonings, small, beloved communities can be born, and grow. And perhaps one day, those communities may become the germ of a mass movement for freedom that astonishes the world, as Black and white South Africans did decades ago.” — Peter Beinart, 14 Oct, 2023 This hope lives.
Asking out of genuine legal ignorance/humility: what is the significance of a blockade being "an act of war" at this stage? Surely killing the head of state was an act of war? Surely bombing schools and hospitals was an act of war? How could Iran not already consider the US to be at war with them?
I know lots of people don’t pay much attention to polls because the noise/uncertainty around them is frustrating when close margins matter (like in elections). But the 13 year trend here is not noise. And every poll is showing it. The politics of this issue in the US have radically changed.
This book definitely resolved a lot of contentious bluesky debates of 2024, *against* the defensive pro-Biden consensus of the site at the time It went largely ignored on here — understandably, bc more urgent & dire things are happening (the fascist won!) But it’s worth a read, if you haven’t
Trump in April 2020, on covid: "What happens is it's gonna go away. This is gonna go away." Trump tonight (April 2026), on the war he started with Iran: "the strait will open up naturally. It'll just open up naturally." h/t @chrislhayes.bsky.social
