with Henderson in goal England has the edge. #WorldCup #WC2026 #ARGENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

related to the penalties: I have looked into penalties extensively and written up two blog post on it (see maxoosterwegel.com) and have made Bayesian skill estimates available for 300k players (penaltystats.maxoosterwegel.com incl so simulator!) and yes Messi is actually below average probably

Penalty stats

(sorry forgot Norway their gks)

And Rice is right, England has very good penalty takers! (Also a very bad one with Ollie Watkins) #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

My model even suggest that England's chances of winning a shootout vs. Norway jump by 10 percentage points if Henderson is in goal instead of Pickford. #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

Tuchel would never do it because England has won 3 shootouts with Pickford and I imagine the media backlash would be huge if they lose (and pks are still a game of chance), but Henderson has been the better penalty stopper in his career by far. #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

he likely is their best penalty stopper by far so i can see the logic beyond the coach just sticking with what he knows

Penalty taking skills quite similar between Belgium and Spain #WorldCup #WC2026 #ESPBEL #FIFAWorldCup

And bonus: all of the penalties Mbappe took in his career. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

My model believes a shootout between Morocco and France would be a literal coin toss! #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

Bounou and Maignan penalties faced maps. Both among the very best at both reading the taker's intention, and saving the penalty. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

France - Morocco penalty taking and stopping skills. Two of the very best penalty stoppers with Maignan and Bounou. Both teams consist of very average penalty takers on the other hand. If they get to a shootout, we may see multiple saves. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

and here are the other estimated skills for both teams. Camilo Vargas is really excellent at stopping penalties! Columbia their penalty takers seem to be (sub)par. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

and their shots faced maps for completeness sake

If we get to a shootout, Switzerland would do well to sub Keller on for Kobel. My model estimates a 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. And according to a new model of mine, this could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

here you go!

he was indeed really good at taking penalties! (not the very best though, Harry Kane is better per my model for example)

Messi and penalties: likely even below average over this career. He's been especially bad at deceiving the keeper, ranking in the bottom decile in sending the goalkeeper the wrong way. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #EGYARG

Penalty takers for both teams. Tielemans has not always been a sure bet for penalties surprisingly enough! US squad has not taken many penalties #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

Courtois is a surprisingly average penalty stopper compared to the other great goalkeepers at this World Cup. Model suggests Lammens would probably do about as well, maybe even better. #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

Which Matt defends the net for a US-Belgium penalty shootout? The US has rotated both, but my model backs Matt Turner. Data gives him a 77% probability of being the superior career penalty stopper (other pk statistics below) #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

thanks for the mention! will read later today. in the meantime here's some additional figures from my tooling that complement my previous post (Beach his shot map included despite no placement data for completeness sake)

My model puts an 84% chance on Henderson being a better penalty stopper than Pickford over their careers so far. #ENGMEX #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup

Penalty taking / stopping skill for England and Mexico. Some of the very best penalty in football play tonight with Jiménez, Kane and Toney. Henderson has likely been the better penalty stopper than Pickford during his career. Will Tuchel dare to put Henderson on? #ENGMEX #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup

i can't believe i'm posting this, but penalty taking and stopping skills for Argentina and Cape Verde #ARGCVP #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCup2026

both Australia and Egypt should consider a goalkeeper substitution as the better penalty stoppers are on the bench #AUSEGY #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCup2026

To illustrate just how great Bounou’s save was: the shot had a 99% goal probability based on location. But knowing Summerville seems to have a habit of shooting to the left, Bounou gambled on a small step to his right #NEDMAR

if The Netherlands vs Morocco ends in penalties, here's the skill estimates from my model. the Dutch strikers are awful and Bounou is excellent. let's hope we can avoid penalties (by winning in regular or extra time)

and a small fix to this post, because the scraper accidentally picked up some non-professional games (U21 level etc., also filtered some second tier non-European leagues) - conclusions largely the same