Overshot the Carrying Capacity

@overshot

Opinionated cartoons and views on how we are doing, backed with evidence. Happy to learn more. Unfortunately my limited talent to draw isn't matching ideas in my head. I seem to be using this account for commentary. Pls assume I'm mortified by any typos.

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Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jul 11

More Climate Solutions

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jul 11

Something like this image. E.g. instead of taking something like flow-rate of the river, just record weather flow-rate was above/below some threshold. Inspired by "Binary climate data visuals amplify perceived impact of climate change. Grace Liu1" rachit-dubey.github.io/images/binar...

Two graphs, illustrating how a "binary conditions graph" can be more impactful.

The graph on the left has lake temperature 1940-202, with data points all over the place, although temperatures are trending up.

The graph on the right just records whether the lake froze that year. So you see clearly that used to freeze often, but now much less often.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jul 8

Syria expected to experience temperatures around the 50C mark at the end of next week 🥵 Source: climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outl...

Map of the middle east, showing that Syria will have max temperatures around 50C at the end of next week (E.g. around 14th July), and much of Syria will be over 40C.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jul 1

"AI ... as they can not understand anything" I thought I'd recreate something I saw on YouTube. Asking co-pilot: "Should I walk or drive to the carwash" There are many benefits to walking!

Question to Copilot: should I walk or drive to the carwash

Copilot said:
It depends on a few quick factors—here’s an easy way to decide:

Walk if:
It’s very close (a few minutes away)
You’re not in a rush.
You want a bit of exercise/fresh air.
You’ll just be dropping the car off or picking it up later.

Drive if:
It’s farther away or along busy roads.
You’re planning to wait while it’s cleaned.
The weather isn’t great (rain, cold, etc.).
You’ve got stuff to carry or errands to run after.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jun 11

Latest version of this graphic, no longer has the trend line. Lol. Wouldn't want anyone to be side tracked by the fact that many of the trend lines (3-year average, loess-15-year, ten year linear best fit, 40 year quadratic best fit) for this data show us over 1.5C www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A graphic from the BBC website, showing global warming from 1970 to 2026.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jun 5

Yeah! 2026 shaping up to be quite something too. Similarly, removing years 2015-2025 for the global SST graph (60S - 60N) shows quite the gap.

Global sea surface temperature graph from climate reanalyzer.

Shows the sea surface temperature, with one line per year. The x-axis is January to December. The y-axis is the sea surface temperature.

The lines represent 1981 to 2026, but without 2015-2025.

The 2026 line is way above the others.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jun 5

A quick and dirty effort to show a stable axis, to show the upward motion more clearly.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jun 2

BBC is showing a global warming graph with the trend over 1.5C. They are careful to state "trend line is indicative only". Lol www.bbc.co.uk/news/resourc... Data: ERA5, baseline: Pre-Industrial.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· May 20

Fast delivery ! Lets see how things have progressed since Bill's: Hot House Earth, An inhabitants guide, from 2022.

Cover image of Bill McGuire's book "The Fate of the World" which has just been released.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· May 20

From the Guardian article. Expect the highest recorded temperatures to keep trending upwards in the UK.

Graph showing hottest recorded temperature of each year in the UK, from 1900 until 2025. Currently the highest is 40C in 2022. Two additional data points are plotted, showing that the record go up to 42.8C in 2050 and 47.6C by 2100 ... Assuming a higher emissions scenario.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· May 18

I look forward to seeing this graph painting a similar picture. Source: ourworldindata.org/profile/ener...

Graph showing India's Primary Energy Consumption by source, from 1965 up until 2024 (inclusive). It shows Coal stable between 50-60%, Oil stable between 25-35%, although possibly in a long slow decline from the year 2000. Wind and solar are climbing, but both have reached around 5%.
Yes, Primary Energy includes a lot of wasted energy, and therefore electricity counts for more of the useful energy, but for now, those fossil fuels are still being burnt.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· May 13

It is impressive on the electricity front, but from a primary energy perspective, oil and gas are still significant in the 2024 data, and that is before the fossil fuel exports are considered.

Graph from "world in data", showing Norway's (primary) energy consumption by source. Oil and gas are dropping, but were still over 25% of the energy in 2024. Hydro is way out on the lead at ~65%.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· May 12

The forecast just keeps getting more extreme. Pakistan is going to be insanely warm next week. 50C max temperatures? Northern India will also be in the high 40s.

Map of India and Pakistan, showing that Pakistan will have Max temperatures close to 50C next week, maybe higher? Insane.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· May 8

The heat just keeps going ... Pakistan, India, and North Africa Source: climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outl...

A map showing the forecast maximum heat anomalies for surface temperatures in North Africa, the Middle East, and Eastwards to include India.

This is the 7-10 day forecast through to mid May 2026.

Pakistan, India and Libya have max temperatures well into the mid 40s Celcius.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Apr 22

Got to celebrate the progress we are making

Taking the "Global Warming Since the First Earth Day" map (1970 - 2025) posted by Gavin Schmidt. ... and overlaying the "This is Fine Meme" dog.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Apr 19

"Ministry for the Future" comes to mind here, which has a scenario of 35ºC Wet Bulb temperature and widespread power outages in India. The upper 40's ºC can get 35ºC Wet Bulb temperatures with low humidity. Source: climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outl... (7-10 day forecast on 19th April)

Map of South and Central Asia, showing the 7-10 day forecast for the "Maximum 2m Temperature".

India and Pakistan are covered in white/grey colours representing widespread areas in the mid 40's ºC.

Charts like that on this webpage (https://arielschecklist.com/wbgt-chart/) show that with 46ºC even at only 15% humidity, that can translate to web bulb temperatures of 35ºC which is the human limit used in the book: The Ministry for the Future.

The book includes a power outage preventing air conditioning from working, and the conditions last for longer. Still ... not great, and more global heating is in the pipeline.

Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=asia-lea2&ndays=d7-10 (7-10 day forecast on 19th April)

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Apr 2

"Passing 1.5C" We passed another milestone in April 2026. The Loess-15-year-window trend line has reached 1.5C We're not officially over 1.5C, but we are ticking off 1.5C short-term milestones, and getting faster (GHG, OHC, EEI, Ice, GMST).

A man on an Eiffel Tower Rocket, passing minor milestones for Global Mean Surface Temperature anomaly (1st day over 1.5C, 1st month over 1.5C, 1st year over 1.5C, and now the loess-15-year window trend line has reached 1.5C), and saying "We haven't passed 1.5C".
This graphic uses Copernicus ERA5 data.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Mar 25

James Kane did indeed die (2020) before Climate Change could affect his life. His view point (other things like growth are more important) are still dominant even though we have well and truly entered into the age of consequences.

Image from NASA's "Climate Legacies" app, showing the climate stripes (global warming), for different emissions scenarios ... as well as what climate people born in different generations will experience.
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/webapps/climate-legacies/

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Feb 26

Maybe zooming out helps? Nope.

Graph showing global CO2 emissions from 1850 (~4bn tonnes) until 2025 (~42bn tonnes). Also shows vstious curves for the reduction in CO2 needed to "stay below 1.5C" if we stayed reductions at different points in the past. Pretty much need a time machine and total human collapse at this point.
Graph from "our world in data".

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Jan 7

Polarised reviews, regarding how well it was received.

Bar Chart showing the reviews (1=bad, 10=good) for the Documentary "Bright Green Lies", as posted on IMBD film review website.

35.3% gave 10/10, and 21.4% gave 1/10
Quite the split in reviews.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Dec 4

Sorted

Cartoon by @inkcinct.com.au - which I apologise for messing with.

A Koala's body is shaking and it is looking sad, clinging to a tree stump, surrounded by other tree stumps.

Two suited people are looking at the koala, and one says: "This young koala has a mental health problem"

I have crossed out "has" to say "This young koala does not have a mental health problem", and labeled the man "Wes Streeting".

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Nov 29

If. Lol.

Cartoon with one person holding up a sign saying "the end is thursday", whereas a more seasoned doomsayer had a sign saying "the end is near", with a thought bubble: "amateur."

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Nov 14

That chart design seems perfectly clear. I think that approach could catch on.

Spoof chart of Mauna Loa CO2 readings in ppm
It messes around with the axis, to give an incorrect impression that CO2 ppm is level / downwards.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Oct 23

The blue sky areas around the Mediterranean seem to map well with the areas at risk of desertification.

Map showing the countries around the Mediterranean, highlighting areas that are already desert, or at risk of desertification. 2013.

https://www.grida.no/resources/8333
credit (in this case Emmanuelle Bournay and Matthias Beilstein, Zoï Environment Network)

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Oct 13

The next few years will be interesting, to see if the global consumption (not just electricity) actually goes down, and at what rate. Record levels in 2024.

Graph from "World in Data", showing the "Coal consumption by region" (Middle east, S&C America, Africa, CIS, Europe, N America, Asia Pacific) as a stacked plot.
X axis: 1965 to 2024
Y axis: 0 TWh to 50,000 TWh
Overall, globally, coal consumption has been going up and was at record levels in 2024. It has flattened considerably since 2010, with regional declines, but still up overall.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Oct 1

"Due to the lapse in federal government funding, NASA is not updating this website. We sincerely regret this inconvenience." Website: worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov Sad times. What an amazing website this has been. Daily satellite views of the Arctic and Antarctic.

A screenshot of the website https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/
which has a new notification:
"Due to the lapse in federal government funding, NASA is not updating this website. We sincerely regret this inconvenience."

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Aug 24

And a huge amount of very thin ice. Source: polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-a... And lots of high anomaly sea surface temperatures. Source: climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-we...

Sea ice volume for the Arctic. Lots of ice with under 1.2m thickness.

Sea surface temperature anomaly for the Arctic. Large areas with over 8C above normal.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Aug 21

Uk's "first past the post" elections have even bigger extremes, for votes per seat. Notables: * 33.7% gets 411 seats * 14.3% gets 5 seats * 6.4% gets 4 seats * 0.7% gets 7 seats Source: researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...

Table showing UK 2024 election results. Each row is a political party, and shows national totals for: votes, vote share, seats, candidates.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Aug 19

Premise 4, from Derrick Jensen's Endgame

Premise Four: Civilization is based on a clearly defined and widely accepted yet often unarticulated hierarchy. Violence done by those higher on the hierarchy to those lower is nearly always invisible, that is, unnoticed. When it is noticed, it is fully rationalized. Violence done by those lower on the hierarchy to those higher is unthinkable, and when it does occur is regarded with shock, horror, and the fetishization of the victims.

Overshot the Carrying Capacity@overshot· Aug 12

My BlueSky timelines for "Climate Change" and "US Fascism" come together.