Owen
@oweninvan
The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men gang aft agley, an' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain, for promis'd joy! Vancouver, BC
the total unabsorbed condo inventory is <3 months of total new apartment supply. It makes sense that condo investors increasingly don't want to compete directly with purpose-built rental, this does NOT imply that studios & 1BRs have been "overbuilt" relative to anything else. 3/3
Detached houses are just a much smaller share of the new home market today, they will probably never reach a record high inventory again. Apartment starts (includes both rental and condos) are running ~22k/year, meaning... 2/3
I keep hearing people say knowingly that the silly developers just overbuilt studios & 1BRs that people don't want. This seems to ignore that new row home & duplex (semi-detached) unsold inventories in Metro Van have also hit a record high. 1/3
OTOH, this accompanying chart is a very weird argument. Why would you use market cap and not revenues or profits for "value creation"? 2/3
A skilled prompt engineer was able to change this to houses. TEAM is welcome to use this corrected image instead.
This is Metro Van (including Surrey) and Edmonton. I guess they're about average for the Metro while Edmonton is kicking ass.
Housing starts in Surrey have dropped significantly since 2023, but they are celebrating "achieving" their targets over the last 2.5 years. Congrats to them, I guess, for getting the Feds to give them $100M for doing nothing. CC @bivnews.bsky.social @gregorrobertson.bsky.social
Constraining supply to sell houses for ever higher ransoms might make many people a lot wealthier, but it’s not the investment we need for a more productive economy. thehub.ca/2026/04/20/a...
2008 was certainly a lot meaner increase for Brent than 2026, or anything since 1990.
...is just operating spending, which we expect to get more efficient with higher population density. I can think of how development services could be made a lot more efficient in Vancouver. But it & housing can go up so much because it is a small part of operating spending. 2/3
I don't buy this. I think the next Fed (& maybe ECB?) hike will be like a cut for us. Doesn't feel like the economy is depressed enough to not have inflationary pressure from that [says my gut].
It's very sad that Iran has had so many smart, ambitious people leaving for decades. It seems like they have done really well on education & would be having Poland's experience if not for the revolution having other priorities.
Forcing a population drop before swinging back to >300k/year growth is just as bad an idea as the sudden surge in temporary migration. Why not gradually approach the target on net rather than swing wildly in both directions over the course of 3-4 years? www.cbc.ca/news/busi...
Since it's topical: this is the only detailed cost comparison I could easily find for Site C. I'm a little skeptical of LCOE, but the study includes an hourly forecast for different emissions scenarios too. Any thoughts/criticisms out there? www.sciencedirect.co...
It's hard to believe a 2027 forecast, given that we are going to continue building ~2% more housing units, that we will see 0% pop growth, & that condo prices will stabilize. But, there are certainly lots of people that want to move out on their own (10,000s)... Also, 1/2
CMHC estimates that the number of Metro Vancouver households will increase by 1.4%, despite a 0.4% drop in population. This is driven by more young adults, cheaper rents, & (slightly by) rising incomes. I wonder if the population part will even come true www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/...
I'm a little skeptical, but this group claims that AI investment hasn't contributed to US GDP at all, because of a bigger increase in hardware imports. I don't think this accounts for US inputs to the hardware? Nor building the buildings for the hardware? research.berenberg.c...
Whoa, I did not realize it was *this* bad. I wonder what qualifies as a spinoff. www.experimental-his...
Work from home may be bad for single people's mental health. www.science.org/doi/...
Considering the Villages plan options start at only 1.6 FSR for 50'-wide lots, it certainly seems like not a lot is going to be built anytime soon. Half the city is going to have zoning that notionally allows apartments but is calibrated specifically so that multiplexes & duplexes get built instead.
San Jose's failed Villages plan sounds oddly similar to Vancouver's upcoming Villages plan. Foreshadowly similar. housingmatters.urban.org/how-upzoning...
The quote sounds too good to be true because it's off by a factor of 8.5 million. Still worth doing though!
The problem with bluesky is that there are lots of scolds. But scolds don't invite much response so they don't waste much of your time. The problem w/ X is that you're bombarded with promoted engagement bait, & if you take it, they will try to trap you in obtuse argumentation.