Owen Michael

@owenwmichael

Welsh and European. Biromantic Asexual. @UKLabour, @unisontheunion, and @thefabians. Data person and all round geek. He/him/o

2.811 Folgt2.645 Follower10.786 Posts

Bluesky

Ist das dein Profil?Übernimm es — dann gehört dir owenwmichael.dirty.social.Profil übernehmen

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Jun 25

Current law (Representation of the People Act 1983) www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1983/2...

111 Prohibition of paid canvassers.
If a person is, either before, during or after an election, engaged or employed for payment or promise of payment as a canvasser for the purpose of promoting or procuring a candidate’s election—
(a)the person so engaging or employing him, and

(b)the person so engaged or employed,

shall be guilty of illegal employment.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Apr 17

As others have said, dozens of us! (Though I'm not /from/ the North West, I just live here)

White men aged 25-34 from the North West, who rent a home in a town, are in work and have an undergraduate degree. There are about 11,500 Britons like this

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Apr 17

Huh, I suddenly feel like less of an oddball (I kept going back and forth on whether to put city or town but it doesn't make that much difference)

Chance of voting for a party
Line chart with national averages for:
Male
25-34
White
North West
Undergraduate
In work
Town
Renting
2026 prediction: Reform 16% Green 25% Labour 32%
2024 estimate: Reform 10% Green 15% Labour 52%

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Mar 13

"I'll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs...."

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Mar 11

Anyway this is the best description I have ever seen of why I am where I am on the Union

A second condition, which Professor Dicey declares to be absolutely essential to the founding of a Federal system is the existence of a very peculiar state of sentiment amongst the inhabitants of the countries which it is proposed to unite. They must desire union, and must not desire unity. If there be no desire to unite there is clearly no basis for Federalism. If, on the other hand, there be a desire for unity, the wish will naturally find its satisfaction, not under a Federal but under an "unitarian", i.e. a centralized Constitution. The phase of sentiment, in short, which forms a necessary condition for the formation of a Federal State is that the people should wish to form for many purposes a single nation, yet should not wish to surrender the individual existence of each man' State or Canton

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Mar 6

Huh, Oklahoma has rules for really quick by-elections by US standards (.... that won't apply this time) ballotpedia.org/Filling_vaca...

The special election must be announced within 30 days after the vacancy occurs. Within 10 days of this announcement, a three-day filing period must occur. Within 20 days of the close of the candidate filing period, a special primary must take place. A primary runoff, if required, must take place within 20 days of the special primary. The special general election must take place within 20 days of the special primary runoff. If the vacancy occurs during an even-numbered year, it must be filled at the regular primary and general elections.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Feb 26

The relentless propaganda surrounding decline of denomination voting is an insult to our intelligence
Allister Heath
The Telegraph

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Feb 21

Finally did my 25th #ParkRun after debacle here at Christmas. This time I instead accidentally did an /extra/ loop - took me 35m 17s overall, according to Strava this was the first time I did 5k in under 30 minutes but not sure I would have if not trying to make up for lost time on the actual course

Strava activity map
Parkrun Y Promenad, Llandrillo-yn-Rhos
Distance: 5.86 km
Pace: 5:59/km
Time: 35m 4s

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Nov 22

Great to hear from @unison.org.uk general secretary Christina McAnea at #ulgbt25, talking about how the Labour government is not meeting our expectations, but good work is still being done such as on Employment Rights and Renters' Rights - but not being publicised.

Christina on screen with subtitles saying "and live free from prejudice, discrimination and intolerance. Working together we can achieve great things"

"Between the own goals, mishaps and il-avised briefings there are some good things going on. But voters could be forgiven for not hearing about them"

"But we must focus our campaigning on changing the law. I know the Supreme Court judgement"

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Nov 12

The editor would also be the guy who had a book with this paragraph published in April 2022

In January 2022 as Russia stationed troops at the Ukrainian border in a bid to halt NATO’s eastward expansion, Starmer used a Telegraph op-ed to applaud the Tories’ tough line on the “Russian threat”, and encouraged the government to cut off Russian access to the global financial system.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Oct 15

Also reminded me of this , which I'm not sure I'd summarise in its totality as "libertarian", even if the faction in question seems to have

In May 1986 the Scottish Federation of Conservative Students, under its chairman Simon Morgan, launched its Conservative Manifesto for Scotland which included such libertarian ideas as the legalisation of incest between consenting adults, the legalisation of euthanasia, mandatory castration of those found guilty of rape and other sexual offences, commercial surrogate motherhood as well as urging that the "pagan and disrespectful practice" of registry office weddings be banned, "leaving the Church as the only body capable of celebrating marriage". The manifesto added that the incidence of sex crimes would be reduced by the decriminalisation of prostitution, creating an open market. Peter Fraser, Solicitor-General for Scotland condemned the document as "loopy libertarianism" and even the national FCS repudiated the manifesto a "a sick joke", with Harry Phibbs, in his capacity as member of the FCS national committee, denying any knowledge of the document.
https://etheses.bham.ac.uk/id/eprint/518/1/Lamb03PhD_A1a.pdfKEwivvf6WmaaQAxXAXUEAHX_ZArgQFnoFCIMBEAE&usg=AOvVaw3v26pGjxPgaQP5V3VSnBq-

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Oct 2

As Yom Kippur ends, sending my support to all those grieving and/or frightened after today's horrific attack in Manchester

To everyone in Britain's Jewish Community: You are not alone. We will not let hate or those who spread it win. We stand with you.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Sep 30

Standing room only at the Trans Solidarity Rally earlier #Lab25

@nadiawhittome.bsky.social speaking in front of two @labour4transrights.bsky.social flags

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Sep 8

As a contemporary indeed noted

All contemporary writers share to some extent the contemporary outlook—even those, like myself, who seem most opposed to it. Nothing strikes me more when I read the controversies of past ages than the fact that both sides were usually assuming without question a good deal which we should now absolutely deny. They thought that they were as completely opposed as two sides could be, but in fact they were all the time secretly united—united with each other and against earlier and later ages—by a great mass of common assumptions.

We may be sure that the characteristic blindness of the twentieth century—the blindness about which posterity will ask, “But how could they have thought that?”—lies where we have never suspected it, and concerns something about which there is untroubled agreement between Hitler and President Roosevelt or between Mr. H. G. Wells and Karl Barth. None of us can fully escape this blindness, but we shall certainly increase it, and weaken our guard against it, if we read only modern books.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Aug 6

We had a beautiful picture of [MacDonald] in our passage. Dad’s idol. My dad’s idol. I came home from school, sitting there waiting for him to come in, and there was such a commotion. We’d heard him come in with his key and there was such a commotion ... There’s dad in the passage, he’s got the frame round his neck ... and he’s standing like this: ‘You bloody traitor, you bloody –’ tearing the picture up into little pieces ... And afterwards he came in and mum said: ‘What’s all that about, about him being a traitor and all that?’ So he said to me: ‘You saw what I did?’ ‘Yeah.’ So he said, ‘Well, I think he’s killed the Labour Party.’

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Aug 4

I tried this with the pirate game (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate_...) It (more or less) gets it right up to three pirates and then breaks down

Me: Suppose five rational pirates are trying to divide a loot of 100 pieces of eight according to a strict set of rules.
They have a hierarchy where each has a unique rank.
The highest ranking proposes a distribution, and they all vote yes and no, with the highest ranking having the casting vote.
If there are more Noes than Yeses, the highest ranking is thrown overboard, and they start again with the next in line, otherwise the distribution is accepted.
All the pirates want to maximise their number of pieces of eight and to not be thrown overboard. Other things being equal, they would rather see another pirate thrown overboard than not.
How are the pieces of eight distributed?

ChatGPT said:
This is a classic game theory puzzle involving rational actors. Let’s label the five pirates by rank:

Pirate A (rank 5, highest)

Pirate B (rank 4)

Pirate C (rank 3)

Pirate D (rank 2)

Pirate E (rank 1, lowest)

The pirates are extremely rational and have the following priorities, in order:

Survive (not be thrown overboard).

Maximize the number of coins.

If indifferent, prefer throwing someone else overboard for the fun of it.

Let’s solve it backwards, considering what happens in smaller groups and using induction.

1 Pirate (E):
Pirate E keeps all 100 coins. No one to oppose.

2 Pirates (D, E):
D proposes a split. If E doesn't like it, D is thrown overboard and E gets all 100.

E knows this. So D offers nothing to E (since E prefers D to die) and keeps 100 for himself.

E votes No, D votes Yes, it's a tie, and D survives with casting vote. So:

D: 100

E: 0

3 Pirates (C, D, E):
C needs 1 vote in addition to his own to survive.

He knows:

If C is thrown overboard, then D will get 100, E will get 0.

C wants to buy someone off.

C offers 1 coin to E (who would otherwise get 0).

D gets nothing (would prefer C to die, because in the next round, he gets everything).

So:

C: 99

D: 0

E: 1

C + E vote Yes, D votes No ⇒ proposal accepted.

4 Pirates (B, C, D, E):
B needs 2 votes in addition to his own to survive.

If B dies, from above:

C: 99

D: 0

E: 1

So B must offer bribes better than what pirates would get if B dies.

E is already getting 1 ⇒ B can offer E 1 to keep him.

D is getting 0 ⇒ B can offer 1 to D.

C is getting 99 ⇒ B won’t bribe C.

So:

B: 98

C: 0

D: 1

E: 1

B, D, and E vote Yes ⇒ proposal accepted.

5 Pirates (A, B, C, D, E):
A needs 3 votes in total to survive.

If A dies:

From above:

B: 98

C: 0

D: 1

E: 1

So A must bribe those who would get 0 otherwise: C and E.

D gets 1 ⇒ needs 2 to switch.

A offers:

C: 1

E: 2 (better than 1)

A keeps 97.

Votes:

A, C, E vote Yes ⇒ accepted.

✅ Final Distribution:
A (highest): 97

B: 0

C: 1

D: 0

E: 2

Each pirate acts in pure self-interest, assuming all others do as well.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Jul 26

Now thinking of this exchange (from a Torchwood fanfic of all things)

“I’m going to find a bi pride flag and drape myself in it. And then go paint my face pink, purple and blue until someone gets the bloody point.”

“And if some little girl comes up to you and says ‘that’s a nice mermaid Cosplay miss?”

“Then I’m throwing myself into the bloody bay.”

“Wouldn’t dissuade the mermaid comment—well until you drown.”

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Jul 20

Remembering this a friend said on the LP merging into the DPP in 2019

When I asked ██████████████, a scholar of Japanese politics, about Ozawa, ███████ explained to me that Ozawa was possibly the single most hated man in Japan, that he has basically managed to betray everyone at some point, was as shameless an opportunist as one could get when it comes to policy, corrupt in the way only an old disciple of Tanaka Kakuei could be corrupt, and that he was now isolated, deeply distrusted, and his party basically consisted of the remains of his old koenkai up in Iwate.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Jul 3

I was rather amused when I came across this from Lord Auckland in the Hansard complaining about the new thing of political bubbles in, er, 1960

There is an old French saying, "Chacun à son goût", and far be it from me to criticise people who take an interest in the affairs of their favourite football team. But it seems to me to be rather unreasonable to cast on the Press the whole of the blame for the fact that people are not more conversant with foreign affairs. Of course various newspapers have various political biases. If you read the Daily Herald, you get the Labour Party's point of view. I read Reynold's News. I often disagree with it, but I find it, in its way, a stimulating paper. I greatly miss one of their most famous correspondents by the name of Yaffle. I used to read him quite regularly. I believe that a lot of the trouble to-day is that people are politically intolerant. Because they are Conservative, they must read the Daily Mail or they must read the Daily Telegraph, and they must not read the Daily Herald. People who are Socialists say, "Oh, the Daily Mail is a wicked Tory paper", just as Tories say that the Daily Herald is a wicked Socialist paper. There is far too much of that attitude about. I do not think one can blame the Press for that—certainly not entirely.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Jun 15

Great for @unisontheunion.bsky.social to hear from @nicklowles.bsky.social of @hopenothate.org.uk on Reform UK at #ulgc25

Lowles on screen for UNISON Local Government Conference talking about needing as an antiracism organisation to sometimes come in talking about other issues

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· May 17

Anyway my top 10

Poland 12
Estonia 10
Latvia 8
Armenia 7
Switzerland 6
Germany 5
Luxembourg 4
Sweden 3
Israel 2
Iceland 1

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Mar 23

www.markpack.org.uk/107255/polit...

_DON'T LET YOURSELF BE TRICKED_
A disgraceful plot is being perpetrated in an attempt to mislead Conservatives in Bexley.
A man called James Robert Lambert has changed his name by deed poll to EDWARD HEATH and has had himself nominated as a candidate against the *REAL* Edward Heath, leader of the Conservative Party.
Further, he has the effrontery to describe himself as "Conservative" although he had no official connection what-soever with the Conservative Party
*/Take care when you vote*/
There will be two HEATH names on the ballot paper, but the *REAL* Edward Heath will be shown as
*HEATH
EDWARD RICHARD GEORGE
Leader of the Conservative Part*
(Shown ballot paper style)
and will be the *_bottom_* name on the list
Heed this warning (white on blue background, reversing previous)

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Feb 16

I think this is one of the best articulations I've seen of this point, which for whatever reason people seem particularly desperate to ignore lately

As Midge Decter famously said, at a certain point you have to join the side that you are on. It’s a good maxim for political analysis, either of yourself or of others. Man cannot live on caveats alone: you are what you do and say and you support who you profess support for.

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Jan 18

Hmm, interesting. I guess somewhere I know something about the political system and what changes seem feasible and where they seem to have space to bed in would interest most but I don't have major links to any non-UK countries so seems kinda arrogant to say "I should run South Africa" or wherever?

NGL: You get to be head of government of any country that isn't the UK. Which one do you choose?

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Jan 18

Alright, nothing's gone too badly wrong, had some good times and sorted a few things out

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Jan 18

A lot but @alunephraim.bsky.social, @goldwagnathan.bsky.social, @fakegreekgrill.bsky.social, @lines.snail.skin @ralucahippie.bsky.social, @cjterry.bsky.social @nathanwylabour.bsky.social and @mconcagh.bsky.social sprung to mind first

NGL:Which Bsky accounts do you follow that you think are underrated?

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Dec 14

Anyway I helped run what I thought was a fairly basic aspec awareness workshop two weeks ago and now I'm thinking of this meme

XKCD 2501: How could anyone consider themselves a well-rounded adult without a basic understanding of silicate geochemistry? Silicates are everywhere! It's hard to throw a rock without throwing one!

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Dec 4

I still love this description of the CERES-Rocard faction fight by Hanley

At times it was reminiscent of the later stages of the fight between two heavyweights, with the punches becoming cruder and more wayward, under the eyes of a referee (Mitterand) who favoured first one contestant, then the other, before walking off with the prize money

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Nov 30

Great for @youngunison.bsky.social to hear from Becky Gittins MP about her experiences as a young trade unionist at #uymc24

Owen Michael@owenwmichael· Nov 28