Owen Winter
@owenwntr
Covering politics, elections and data at The Economist
Our Brazilian election poll tracker is live 🇧🇷 www.economist.com/interactive/... We show Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro by 41 to 33 in the first round
We estimate that Trump's approval is net negative among 2024 voters in forty states, including twenty that he won www.economist.com/interactive/...
Trump's second term is much less popular than his first, despite a better starting point
Restore's vote share in Greater Manchester is the highest for any far-right (right-of-Reform) party since 2010, when Nick Griffin won 15% in Barking
With today's poll from BMG, it looks like Labour's poll bounce under Burnham has been on average ~4.7 points. A 2 point bounce when Starmer resigned and a further 2.7 points when Burnham became PM
In a best PM matchup, Nigel Farage loses against every other party leader: Burnham +26 Badenoch +24 Davey +11 Polanski +2 yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
It became a truism in Trump's first term that his approval never really budged outside a narrow range. ~40% of Americans were locked in. That doesn't seem to be the case in his second term
From April. Wonder if any Greens have personally raised the idea that perhaps he should put the phone down
Man City started the world cup with the most players in the tournament (19). By the final, Atlético Madrid had the most (9) followed by Barcelona (8)
There's a temptation to think that Burnham's northern skew means he might win lots of voters from Reform. In fact it looks like the Greens are a more realistic target. He has +20 net favourability among Green supporters +41 (!!) among Lab/Green switchers
Do Andy B's northern creds win votes? Stack Data Strategy asked voting intention with and without listing him as PM. When Burnham is included, Labour's share rises by as much as 10pts in Manchester and other areas of the north www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Lula leads polls for the first round of Brazil's election by around. 8 points and for the second round by 4 points over Flavio Bolsonaro (the son of Jair Bolsonaro)
So far, Keir Starmer has the highest England win rate of any British Prime Minister (76%). Liz Truss has the lowest (0% of two games)
Find it interesting how little Wales features in Labour's leadership conversation, given this happened only two months ago
73% say Farage is sleazy. I was also genuinely surprised that more people think Polanski is sleazy than any of Burnham, Badenoch or Davey yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
The by-election itself is a deplorable attempt to have the residents of Reform's safest seat clear his name. But retreating to the sort of stunt that grabbed attention in the 2010s suggests Farage hasn't adapted well to Reform's new task: preparing for government. www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Why has Nigel Farage pulled the by-election stunt? Because it's easier than convincing voters Reform is a government-in-waiting. My take on what Clacton tells us about Reform: www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Not sure the other parties should stand candidates in Clacton. Labour didn't in 2008 to deny David Davis his stunt
Our Israel poll tracker is updated: Likud 24 seats (-1 since last month) Yashar 21 (+3) Together 16 (-3) Democrats 10 (=) Yb 9 (+1) Shas 9 (=) Jp 8 (=) Utj 8 (=) Joint List 5 (=) Rz 5 (=) Raam 5 (=) www.economist.com/interactive/...
this is fun! Is The Economist always wrong? www.economist.com/interactive/...
Latest polling causes Platner to drop to 62% chance of winning in Maine, according to our congressional forecast www.economist.com/interactive/...
The highest share of Democrats say America is "on the wrong track" since YouGov started asking in 2009 www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Including this lovely visual explainer on the origins of each of Israel's parties www.economist.com/interactive/...
Our tracker of Israeli election polls is live! Our polling average shows Netanyahu's governing coalition on around 54 seats, short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. www.economist.com/interactive/...
Since 1955 new prime ministers have had an average polling bounce of 3.8 percentage points. Can a charismatic former mayor unite his party’s base and win the next election? economist.com/britain/2026...