Paul Cerro
@paulcerro
CEO @cedargrovech 2x exits // CIO @cedargrovecm multi-strategy investment fund + equity research
In June, we released our IPO notes on Suja Life $SUJA. We highlighted that we decided to wait until after Q1'26 earnings to better understand the story going forward However, after the recent Q2'26 drop last week (~46%), we think the market overreacted... www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/suja-marke...
Additionally, GMV keeps growing (due to higher ticketed items), which commands a lower take rate, but contributes higher overall gross profit dollars $REAL
$KITS still adding to its cash balance with record FCF this quarter and no debt
The market is focusing too much on drug launches and is missing the forest for the trees. If our thesis holds, HIMS could be worth multiples of what it is today. See our full report at the link below, with the first four pages available for free. 🔗: www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-whoev...
In the future, you actually won't own anything. Just live off of everything borrowed $AAPL
Oh sick. Foreign tourists spend an average of $4,000 per trip to the US, and as more of them stayed away, international visitor spending in the US fell 4.6% last year.
A few weeks ago, we attended the @PlanetMicroCap conference in Vegas. While there, we were able to speak with the management teams of 12 companies. Some we already owned, others we were just getting to know. See our notes from these conversations below. www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/company-me...
Something we called out earlier in the year. Many participants would, unfortunately, be rolled off - 457k Arizonans (~196k children) Arizona ALONE has seen enrollment decline by nearly half since the rules changed and more and more residents are turning to food banks to get by.
Since @Jaguar released their incredibly botched and hideous new car design in late 2024, the company only sold ~2,800 cars in Europe in all of 2025. I repeat. ~2,800 in ALL of Europe. That's an 87% decline y/y from the ~22.6k it sold in 2024. Unbelievable decline.
Interesting how much progesterone has exploded in recent months, possibly putting a shortage on oral versions. Progesterone-containing HRT prescriptions for women aged 45 and older have more than tripled since January 2021, to about 12 women per 1,000 in May of 2026. $HIMS
I love investigating IPOs - there's so much short alpha to be had there. As a wise man once said, IPOs usually stand for "it's probably overvalued." We've profiled 11 IPOs, and our hit rate thus far has been pretty stellar. Take a look below if you're interested. www.cedargroveresearch.com/t/ipos
Living in NYC, all packages were obviously by carrier Moving to the suburbs, we have drones that are delivering packages and it's cool every single time $AMZN
This morning, we released our notes on the recent Suja Life $SUJA IPO - a US-based organic cold-pressed juices company Based on the S-1, it looks like a PE-sponsored IPO to reduce debt and payout insiders, while still maintaining voting control However.. www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ipo-notes-...
Yeah, $HIMS *needed* to make a deal with $NVO because without the pill, they were getting slaughtered by missing out. Launching the pill super late in March has shown a rebound in April
Pulled from another account on Twitter "Of Trump’s 3,711 stock trades this year, about 60% of them have occurred within 1 trading day of a major macro/market event. Pretty incredible. He’s front running economic data - best to ever do it"
Restaurants have seen their valuations deteriorate over the last few years as rising costs have eaten into profits and diners have rebelled to some extent. Still, certain concepts, like $CAVA, command a valuation of >$20M per unit despite just $3M in AUV (6.8x) and 27.1x Restaurant-Level EBITDA.
So much pessimism for wound care, yet Morgan is still telling you that $SNWV is growing and looks like the tide is turning. “Speaking for Sanuwave, the recovery appears to have begun in February and to have continued thereafter."
Yea, considering the dynamic that occurred in Q1, gross margins took a nose dive - later discovered to be the write-off from the failed pill launch $HIMS Gross margins, adjusted, still going down though from the 73.5% to ~72% in the Q
Looks like Eucalyptus' Juniper CMO (their weight loss brand) is no longer at the company. Not sure if buy choice or part of advanced restructuring before $HIMS takes them over
$HIMS US revenue couldn't grow y/y or sequentially without the help of compounded meds, despite launching - Testosterone - Menopause - Labs - GRAIL cancer screening tests 🚩🚩 They're buying growth since everyone knows the EU market is basically all weight loss scripts
Yeah, idk what this market wants. The whole point was the market being concerned with consumer spending, and yet here we are with consumers still spending and management upping their guidance for literally at least the 6th time in a row $REAL
Nothing like a mafia-esque mentality from a sitting president to really make you not question peak American exceptionalism
Really interesting chart on which stocks have contributed the most to wealth creation