So what do we have on the menu for tonight? Perhaps Tula or Kazan?

That somehow reminded me of this glorious photo: China's Vice President Han Zheng and his delegation admire a local rooster during their visit to Porto, Portugal, in May 2023.

Nice catch. Perhaps that indicates that the western Obytichna River crossing was also hit. Satellite imagery from 19 July show nothing special, but the overpass may have taken place before the strikes. The... eh... vaguely phallic-shaped scorch mark north of the M14 appeared between 11 and 16 July.

Zaliznyi Port is in the westernmost part of occupied Ukraine - farther west than any place in Crimea, in fact. The supply situation there must be extremely grave, especially now.

Perhaps this bingo card will be helpful.

Within the last fortnight, Kerch in Crimea has received some very visible battle scars. From 8 to 18 July, several scorch marks have appeared across the city and its immediate hinterland. Many can likely be attributed to Ukrainian drones or fires accidentally triggered by local anti-air systems.

New satellite photos confirm that it was the eastern bridge across the Kiltychchya that Ukraine targeted the night before yesterday. A scorch mark is visible just to the southwest of the bridge, corroborated by moisture indicators. It is however unclear whether the bridge itself was fully taken out.

There are two road bridges just to the northeast of Primorsk - a western one across the Obytichna River and an eastern one across the Kiltychchya River. Combat footage and/or satellite imagery should soon make it possible for us to ascertain which one was hit.

New satellite photos show oil spills from drone-damaged Russian ships in the Port of Yeysk on the Sea of Azov. 8 July: Normal situation. 11 July: Oil spill in central port basin (85 m vessel). 13 July: Dense oil spill in northeastern grain terminal area (150 m vessel). See alt text for details.

Even more jarring since Dubna is not just some random backwater town in eastern Siberia. See this first paragraph from its English-language Wikipedia page:

It is not just documents they are evacuating from Crimea... The Kerch-style edition of Operation Dynamo sure looks weird.

On 9 February 2022, I made this map of locations in Ukraine where Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF) might theoretically land troops in the event of a full-scale invasion. Look where we are at now.

Note that there are two electrical facilities at Kairka. What may be the main substation itself (shown in your GIF) is unaffected - albeit showing signs of an earlier fire sometime between 22 and 27 June. However, the southern facility is located right on the northern edge of the fresh scorch mark.

There is surely no big base there, but the fire south of Myrne seems to have been centered on what could be a rudimentary military emplacement. I cannot say that it is conclusively the case - but it is known that the Russians have operated ZU-23-2 anti-air pieces in the area (near Kairka, in fact).

Oh yes. That strike appears to have dealt a devastating blow to the already battered electricity grid in western Crimea. Honestly, it is probably the main reason for the current lack of electricity in Armyansk.

I think it is mostly the other way around. The only large power plant in the Tavria region was the now-destroyed Kakhovka Dam and there are no direct links via the land bridge. At any rate, the targeting of substations like the one at Kairka cannot be unproblematic for the local electricity supply.

Armyansk lacks electricity for a reason. Satellite photos of the Perekop Isthmus to the north of the city show several scorch marks after Ukrainian strikes between 29 June and 1 July. The red circle marks the 330kV Kairka electrical substation and the blue circle a military position (?) near Myrne.

Update 1 July 2026: It appears that the Ukrainian military tried to attack, presumably yesterday, the temporary M14 road bridge across the Korsak River. A large circular scorch mark is now visible around 350 metres southwest of the bridge. Better luck next time!

Ordinary wildfire or Ukrainian attack? In satellite photos from 27 and 29 June 2026, scorched earth and numerous smoke plumes are visible near the M17 road bridge across the Kalanchak River, 30 km northwest of Armyansk. Concurrent FIRMS imagery confirms the extent of the fires.

Another bridge down (or at least damaged). Satellite photos from today show large scorch marks and apparent smoke plumes around the M18 road bridge across the Tashchenak River near Nove, 12 km southwest of Melitopol. This matches FIRMS data cited by @the-hedgehog.bsky.social.

Not yet. As per new satellite imagery from today, the temporary bridge is still up and running. Anyway, I will continue to keep an eye on it.

Update 28 June 2026: The Russians appear to have finished construction of their new temporary bridge across the Korsak River. This will allow them to keep using the M14 road from Mariupol to Crimea (albeit likely with load restrictions). But let us see how long it lasts.

Why is the Angarsk Refinery at Irkutsk not mentioned too? I have not heard anything about operational shortcomings there lately. And it is way outside conventional drone range.

Satellite photos confirm the attack against the M14 road bridge across the Korsak River on 25 June 2026. Large scorch marks are visible around the bridge. Just to the south, the Russians appear to be setting up a temporary bridge in continuation of a dead-end road that branches off the M14 itself.

1,011 days ago, I suggested that Ukraine could try to hit the M14 road bridge across the Korsak River in order to cut off Russian military logistics. Now that prediction appears to have finally come true. Kudos again to @blinzka.bsky.social for the geolocation. bsky.app/profile/paxl...

No, being mostly surrounded by water, Crimea tends to enjoy relatively mild winters, with temperatures typically around 3-5° Celcius. But will the occupiers even make it to the winter?

For context, the big oil refinery in Ryazan has been hit by Ukrainian drones a total of 13 times. So far.

Interesting choice of target. Vasylivka lies on the westernmost part of the 'direct contact' frontline before it meets the Dnieper. One might speculate that the Ukrainians could seek to move southwards from Vasylivka in the event of a wider Russian collapse in Crimea and the Tavria region.

Some Russian civilians seem to have gotten the point. Let us see when the military does.

I too have read Sun Tzu. But said quote does not really apply here, since the Crimean Bridge is not the last way out of the peninsula. Civilian evacuation via the M14 is still feasible if Ukraine allows for it. The temporary bridges on the Perekop Isthmus should be able to handle civilian vehicles.