Philip N Cohen

@philipncohen

Sociologist and demographer, U. of Maryland; SocArXiv director. Latest book: Citizen Scholar: Public Engagement for Social Scientists Website: philipncohen.com Blog: familyinequality.com

824 Folgt11.892 Follower10.010 Posts

YouTube YouTube Website Bluesky

science

Ist das dein Profil?Übernimm es — dann gehört dir philipncohen.dirty.social.Profil übernehmen

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 27d

178. In 2025, there were 22 large countries (pop > 10 mil) with an old age dependency ratio higher than youth dependency, led by Japan, Italy, Portugal, Greece, and Germany. In half of them, the total dependency ratio (0-14 + >64 / 15-64) is lower than it was in 1960. Now you know!

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 28d

Read this passage from Gaddafi's Green Book in the voice of Larry David doing George Steinbrenner. Daycare is bad! It's like a poultry farm... Heck that's even bad for chickens! And wild birds taste better anyway... Now, where was I? Motherhood. Tastes good. Daycare -- tastes bad.

To dispense with the natural role of woman in maternity -
nurseries replacing mothers - is a start in dispensing with the
human society and transforming it into a merely biological so-
ciety with an artificial way of life. To separate children from
their mothers and to cram them into nurseries is a process by
which they are transformed into something very close to chicks,
for nurseries are similar to poultry farms into which chicks are
crammed after they are hatched. Nothing else would be as ap-
propriate and suitable to the human being and his dignity as
natural motherhood. Children should be raised by their mothers
in a family where the true principles of motherhood, fatherhood
and comradeship of brothers and sisters prevail, and not in an
institution resembling a poultry farm. Even poultry, like the rest
of the members of the animal kingdom, need motherhood as
a natural phase. Therefore, breeding them on farms similar to
nurseries is against their natural growth. Even their meat is arti-
ficial rather than natural. Meat from mechanized poultry farms
is not tasty and may not be nourishing because the chicks are
not naturally bred and are not raised in the protective shade of
natural motherhood. The meat of wild birds is more tasty and
nourishing because they are naturally fed. As for children who

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 28d

New from me: Demographic crisis framing is everywhere. It's a bar-lowering snowball ratchet. familyinequality.wordpress.com/2026/07/14/d...

Headlines
The Global Fertility Crisis Is
Worse Than You Probably Think
Everybody knows about the decline in birthrates. Fewer people understand why—or just how significantly it could transform society in the next few decades.
DEREK THOMPSON
60 Listen
MAY 18, 2026
The New Hork Cimes
A Conservative Role Model for Ending the Fertility Crisis
Emma Waters, pregnant with her third child, is crafting policy to encourage early parenthood. Some think she is pushing an ideology that does not meet reality.
evie
KRALIN
Can Celebrities Solve Our Fertility Crisis?
When supermodel Barbara Palvin stepped onto the red carpet at Cannes, glowing in a blue gown that draped perfectly over her baby bump, the photos went viral.
By Led Benn/200 03 me
Business Explains
America's
Population Crisis
DYNAMO

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 29d

Today's pronatalists are yesterday's marriage promoters. 30 years ago they also blamed Hollywood, in a 1996 Hoover Institution symposium, "Can Government Save the Family?" What Dan Quayle said then, Brad Wilcox said in 2012 and Lyman Stone says today. familyinequality.wordpress.com/2013/06/04/l...

But the "marriage movement" lives on. In fact, their message has changed remarkably little. In that
1996 symposium, Dan Quayle wrote:

We also desperately need help from nongovernment institutions like the
media and the entertainment community. They have a tremendous influence
on our culture and they should join in when it comes to strengthening
families.

Sixteen years later, in the 2012 "State of Our Unions" report, the National Marriage
Project included a 10-point list of familiar demands, including this point #8:

Our nation's leaders, including the president, must engage Hollywood in a
conversation about popular culture ideas about marriage and family
formation, including constructive critiques and positive ideas for changes in
media depictions of marriage and fatherhood.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 29d

The report also has fertility estimates for every state going way back. Because both numerators denominators have been "uniquely adjusted" for "academically-demonstrated undercounts" these are "the most reliable and informative fertility indicators for U.S. historic birth rates ever published." OK!

The IFS Fertility Database is a novel harmonization of fertility statistics for all 50 states and the District of Columbia back to 1917. Standardized microdata provided by the Centers for Disease
Control from 1968-2024 (plus provisional-release data for 2025) are combined with newly-digitized data on births by state and year for all Birth Registration Area states 1917-1967. This data was
hand-collected from annual vital statistics reports; tables were extracted using Claude Vision; and for each year, 3-25% of tables were hand-verified to ensure accuracy. Any identified inaccuracies
were corrected, all values in tables with inaccuracies found were re-verified, and years with unusually high inaccuracy rates were systematically re-sampled and verified until new inaccuracy rates
reached trivial levels. The median table extraction error involved a difference vs. the true value of less than 10 births for that cell. Although data for Alaska and Hawaii are not included in standard
vital statistics tables from before their statehoods, we hand-transcribed their data from the territorial sections of vital statistics reports. Additionally, data for the District of Columbia is missing
from CDC microdata for some years in the latter 20th century; we hand-transcribed all missing DC tables from vital registration reports.
Next, we adjusted births to account for under-registration. Before 1968, and especially before the 1950s, under-registration of births was a widespread problem. Virtually all vital registration
reports before 1968 acknowledge this problem and describe states believed to have low registration rates using various metrics. We identify low-registration states by comparing birth estimates to
decennial census estimates of newborns in each state. However, since census estimates of newborns are also underestimated, we first revise census estimates of newborns upwards based on
estimated undercounts in Haines (2000). Wherever vital statistics-based birth estimates were more…

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 29d

They also ask for a favorite celebrity, count up their births (details not available), & conclude by similar associational effect estimation that, "an admired celebrity having one extra child [not longitudinally measured] may increase an individual’s desired family size by as much as 0.15 children"

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 29d

The Institute for Family Studies report by Lyman Stone & Brookes asked people how supportive their friends are of having more children, and their childbearing intentions and aspirations. People with more "supportive" friends (questionnaire items not provided) desire / intend to have more children.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 29d

What happened in Japan is complicated (and better). For ~50 years, as old-age dependency tripled, declining child dependency meant overall dependency fell. This is when Japan got very rich. Since then, total dependency has rises for 25 years, but now has peaked as children fall again.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 29d

This figure appears in the video for less than 1 second (why you don't notice the nonsensical, presumably AI-generated subtitle). Not shown: the declining number of children, thus the total dependency ratio. So what actually happened in Japan? (see next slide...)

line graph
Retirees as a % of Working-Age Adults
People over 64 year old depend on 15-64 years

SOURCE United Nations

Japan
Italy
Finland
World

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2025

Play K

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· 29d

Why We Won't Use The Name in Our Headline Even Though That Is Supposedly The Point We're Making.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 11

Note to early career social scientists, re: Lyman Stone. Your actual peers may give you shit, but the quality bar for media attention is 90% lower for right-wing scholars. It's simple both-sides math.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 10

In our interview, I probably mentioned infant mortality and standards of living, but those aren't the main reasons we shouldn't promote "traditional" families -- it's the patriarchy and authoritarianism. Note this part of Heritage's policy is copied from Hitler: www.heritage.org/marriage-and...

Second, Congress should apply the current $17,670 adoption tax credit to
married parents for each of their own newborns. This newly proposed credit
would be structured to make up for existing marriage penalties in the Earned
Income Tax Credit (EITC). To incentivize marriage stability for eligible
children, the credit would be distributed annually in four equal installments

across three to four calendar years. To recognize the investments involved
and the societal benefits that accrue from large families, married parents that

already have two or more children would receive a 25 percent Large Family
Bonus for each additional child. To avoid repeating past policy mistakes that
punished and disincentivized work, at least one parent would be required to
be engaged in verifiable employment for the family to be eligible for the tax
credit.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 10

To the Anemona Hartocollis's credit, this article does not use the term "fertility crisis," which is good because there is. not. one. -- contrary to the clickbait bosses at NYT. When you say "fertility crisis," and then liberals can't "solve" it, you are left negotiating over the Nazi solutions.

A Conservative Role Model for Ending the Fertility Crisis

Emma Waters, pregnant with her third child, is crafting policy
to encourage early parenthood. Some think she is pushing an
ideology that does not meet reality.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 10

Dungeness Spit in Washington state, USA. :) Merlin tells me Killdeer is a kind of Plover.

<
Killdeer
Common, large plover. Slender shape with long wings and tail. Look for two black breast bands, unique among plovers in its range. Often nests near human development: parking lots, school roofs, road edges, and farms, usually on bare gravel. Adults perform broken-wing displays to distract predators from their nests and young.
Gathers in larger numbers in migration and winter, often in fields with short grass or barren dirt. Occurs throughout North America; more local along the Pacific coast of northern South America. Can be very vocal; listen for loud namesake "kill-deer" call.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 10

Killdeer on the Dungeness Spit 🪶

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 10

Is it that mole I hadn't noticed before? climate change? my old smoke detector?

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 9

177. In 1880, more than 70% of US girls were given names in the top 100, and 1-in-14 girls had the most common name (Mary). In 2025 fewer than 30% have top-100 names, and only 1-in-129 have the top name (Olivia). Name diversity has gone in spurts, but continues to increase.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 9

Two people, each with one hand, two feet, and some personal gear shown (Victoria, BC today)

a man sits in an alcove on the street, but only has boots and one hand are visible; a person with a roller bag recedes in the distance, but only their feet and one hand are visible.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 8

It's sad for people to do their best work, at great time and expense, and then have NYT say, "sorry, if we tell people what your work is actually about they won't click on it." Do your job, editors: compose a headline that is engaging and also says what the story is about. (It's eldercare)

OPINION VIDEO
This Is One of the Hardest Jobs in America. Millions Are Doing It Alone.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 8

Red-tailed Hawk at sunset 🪶

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jul 4

Couple west coast birds 🪶

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

NPR's now-retracted Alito retirement story, preserved: web.archive.org/web/20260630...

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

These guys have 5 different badges between them, from different states and counties, plus Fugitive Task Force and US Marshals, etc. I feel like police on patrol in civilized countries wear uniforms.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

Dr. Oz with "Dr." Pompa (supposedly has a degree in Chiropractory), and showing off his selfie technique (grabs the phone to compose the shot himself)

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

Cutting room floor from yesterday: Some MAGA faithful: at the beer stand, with kids, composes his selfie in front of l'Arc de Grift with two Trump hats.

At the beer stand, 2pm Monday on MAHA day.

Person with two Trump hats composes his selfie in front of l'Arc de Grift.

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

I was expecting food stands all over. Maybe that will come later in the week, but yesterday almost nothing. One lemonade stand. An outdoor Budweiser bar that seats 30. The aforementioned sad food pavilion has about five booths in it. Etc. Basically, deserted is sad, full would be catastrophic. /5

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

And the layout is bizarre. If you walk the length of this deserted food pavilion - there is no way out at the end, you just have to walk back. /4

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

Security is ridiculously narrow and restrictive. 100,000 people trying to get through this would take forever (and create a huge security risk) Empty all pockets. The guy in front of me had is lighter confiscated - and his cigarettes! Guard told him, "you can come back for them." Some state fair /3

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

They have fenced off the entire, normally beautiful and inviting Mall. The fences are haphazard and ugly, and signs directing you to the few entrances are as hard to find as the entrances. If you don't know street names, they're useless. People walking for miles trying to get in (or out) /2

Philip N Cohen@philipncohen· Jun 30

Yesterday was Monday. Maybe on the weekend, with fireworks, crowds will come. Not many MAGA faithful can afford (or want) a whole week in DC. So, why build all this and staff it for a week? But if a lot of people showed up it would be worse. Consider, there is one ride, the Ferris wheel... /1