Preston Mui
@prestonmui
Economist at Employ America | Kasia Niewiadoma Fanboy | Bird Liker Seattle, WA
Payrolls drop best described as local gov't shedding more education employees than usual in July.
Investopedia is full of garbage like that, eg it thinks the CE question is used for CPI price changes in OER
I'm sure these guys exist and there's probably more of them than before but by and large young women tend to be employed less and get paid less than young men, as has always been the case
www.nber.org/papers/w35277 "First, just-obese patients receive less diagnostic effort than almost-obese patients. Second, a physician-validated LLM identifies at the cutoff a rise in stigmatizing language in clinical notes"
In fact prime age employment rates have risen a bit more for men over the past year than for women
There have been gains (relative, check the dual axes) for women vs. prepandemic, but those were mostly realized a few years ago, not the past 12 months
Something interesting about women's job growth outperforming men is that in the household survey, it seems to happen almost entirely outside prime-age years.
This is basically a pretty good report. Hard to find anything that concerning here.
this is just aging, here's prime-age white men: data.bls.gov/timeseries/L...
On the other hand, payroll employment is comfortable at or perhaps above where Fed sees breakeven. Indeed Wage tracker has ticked up for the past couple of months. The Atlanta Fed data shows high job switching wage growth (for reasons I can't discern, I found that series impossible to replicate)
If you want to be worried about anything the (slight) pickup in JOLTS might be starting to be felt in short-term unemployment. But this is not that bad.