4 stories on wildfire evacuations in news section of Globe & Mail yesterday, then these 3 in business section on booming profits of oil/gas companies that cause the problem. Worse than failure to link those the news stories, Canada is increasing subsidies for oil/gas as the world burns. #cdnpoli

New Angus Reid poll: attention to climate is rebounding and voters most concerned are moving to the NDP and Bloc, causing the Liberal lead over CPC to shrink from 13% (Feb) to 4% (July). Decline in attention doesn't mean voters support weakening climate policies! angusreid.org/climate-vote...

Canadians increasingly believe wildfires are a new normal (30%) or will worsen (56%) yet acceptance that climate change is due to human activity has declined 71% to 59% in 5 yrs. NB: a deep partisan divide with deniers either sorting to CPC or persuaded by co-partisans. angusreid.org/wildfire-fea...

Magical golden hour on Hornby Island with soundtrack of humpbacks breathing and deep vocalizing. So cool!

What brought me joy cycling to the FIFA fanfest in Vancouver yesterday? Being out in the world with happy people on a glorious day! My non-scientific observation: when I looked around at stop signs/lights, many cyclists and pedestrians were smiling and not one of the drivers was. + Scotland won!

#Ebikes reduce GHGs and other air pollution, offer health benefits, and save money. But there's still a tendency to think of cyclists as gutsy souls making sacrifices. But here's the thing: cycling to/from work makes this 67 yr old, not-super-fit person happy. I'll share why in this occasional 🧵.

Check out this table from the paper @vthivierge.bsky.social shared. Canada's oil fares worst not just under a Paris-compliant scenario of net zero in 2050, but also under current pledges, which are a path of ~2.3-2.5C. We are banking on disaster.

Is there a better end of work week activity than cycling through sun-dappled bike routes onto the people’s yacht (aka Seabus) for a meeting to talk climate policy?

Canadian oil producers hope to capitalize on instability in the gulf - plus government subsidies - to expand Cdn exports. But the Iran war's impact on prices is hastening the shift away from oil in importing countries, reinforced by ZEV mandates that spur lower pricing of EVs. Pipeline to nowhere?

Happy New Year, before and after.

NZEE 2b.2 is key. If we're not on track what additional measures could be taken to increase the odds of meeting the target? P 109 finally provides an answer. By setting a false standard to meet 2030 and 2035 targets "at all costs" the report basically says "nothing more we can do." Focus on 2050.

Key figure on p 10. Based on existing policies it's projected Canada will see a 21% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 (p 21), so ~halfway to our target. That's much less optimistic than the 2023 report. Still it's a big deal we've finally bent the curve, just not enough.

Here's what the NZEE Act mandates for progress reports. That stuff's all in there, but one must dig in. Wrt 2a, the Minister's statement doesn't even mention the 2030 and 2035 targets, only the government's commitment to net zero in 2050.

Guilbeault's resignation letter (from post on X):

1st rate trolling by LATAM airlines for its #COP30 passengers to/from Belém! Bittersweet, but hit the spot.

Art with an unmistakeable message outside the conference venue yesterday.

As delegates depart COP30 the path is lined with police standing beside fire extinguishers. I don’t think there’s another fire! Seems unlikely it’s performance art. ??

The gang's all here awaiting COP leadership for final(?) plenary. Still no text for Mutirão/cover decision. Will there be consensus on a Roadmap to "transition away from fossil fuels"? While an adaptation finance for Roadmap compromise is plausible for dev'g countries, petrostates could block.

10:30 pm on the (nominal) last night of #cop30. No new texts since 3 am, no plenary since 1 pm, no announcements. A crowd is gathered outside the COP Presidency office waiting for … something.

Here is the text of the Belém Declaration.

Pic from conclusion of press conference. Many countries spoke. There's a deep divide on fossil fuel transition here at #COP30; fundamentally a divide on climate action. Panama: “our elementary school students are reading text books that are more in line with reality than the text” at COP30.

Colombia, Netherlands + others holding a Press Conf to announce Belém Declaration on phase out of fossil fuels, press for a road map in COP30 text, announce conference of the willing to phase out FFs in April in Colombia. Vanuatu Minister: "eventually you will all be facing what we are facing now”

In response, the 29 countries that sent the letter to the Presidency last night have sent a new letter rejecting the text and calling "firmly" for a revised proposal.

Took an uber to the waterfront while waiting for the #COP30 venue to re-open post-fire. This was hanging on the back of the driver’s seat. Hope next passenger is a fossil fuel lobbyist.

Ouch! Last time Canada received the fossil of the day award from CAN-international at COP was 2014, when Stephen Harper was PM.

COP30 Pavilion of pacific Island states. It did rain really hard here in Belém…

This is not the grand bargain of pipeline for GHG emissions reductions we’ve been hearing about. Rather, the deal I’m seeing (p 107) is a chance to collaborate on a post-2030 price trajectory, extension of CCUS tax credits to 2040 (at lower level), no oil/gas emissions cap in exchange for ... \5

Promising specifics: recommitment to methane regs, strengthening industrial carbon pricing by lowering benchmarks, creating a sustainable finance framework. But “Canada’s new government is committed to reduction GHG emissions” but no mention of meeting targets (2035?!) other than NZ in 2050. \3

In a budget that *really* emphasizes infrastructure investments, I’m struck by what’s in the excerpt below, a clean power grid and critical minerals, and what's not: an oil pipeline. \2

Producer countries are not only planning for way more production than needed to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, they're even planning to produce more than would be needed under current policies. They are banking on failure, in doing so increasing chances of that. /2