Is fighting Iran worth it? According to @global-affairs.bsky.social polling, the vast majority of Americans (including a sizable minority of Republicans) say "no".

One of the upgrades we'll be making to the War Data in the @correlatesofwar.bsky.social is updating the data to the present (it ends in 2007). That leads to a "pop quiz" to test your knowledge of wars and the COW war coding rules Question: Will the 2008 Russo-Georgian War be added to the COW data?

Overall, the idea is perhaps best expressed from a line in Neal Stephenson's novel Cryptonomicon (h/t @coldwarhost.bsky.social for highlighting this quote) regarding the US military during WWII (which, ironically, Trump loves referencing the US in WWII)

The Saudi Arabia-Turkey-Pakistan Mecca Defense Pact is generating A LOT of commentary. Much of that commentary sees the pact as an indictment on US policy in the Middle East, specifically its failures during the War with Iran. I don't see it that way 🧵

A summer highlight for me is the Summer Institute in Social Research Methods at UChicago! Nearly 90 undergraduates engage in an immersive experience combining classroom instruction, workshops, and RA work on faculty projects It makes world class research part of the undergraduate experience!

I officially started an important new research project this summer: becoming a data host for the Correlates of War! Specifically, I am now the curator for the COW data on interstate, intrastate, and extrastate wars.

I wrote a number of columns for @wpr.bsky.social this summer! The topics ranged from the War on Iran to the "art" of diplomacy, to the US role in the world, to declining "great powers". Here is a summary 🧵.

Time to get back to posting on social media! It's been a productive summer so far, from reading and writing, to starting up research projects, to public engagement and running summer programs. I'm looking forward sharing what I've been up to, which I'll be doing over the next week!

Since giving soldiers flu shots is apparently controversial, I'll just highlight the below graph. Research by Robert Callahan & me show that evidence for a "Decline in War" over the past 200 years is driven largely by reductions in deaths from disease. Vaccines & sanitation = good war fighting.

I was a thrill to have my essay on world war published by The @nytimes.com. But my PARENTS loved that it appeared in their physical Sunday edition :)

I don't know where to start with this. But, analytically speaking, it's the logical end of combining Christian Militarism with a "Clash of Civilizations" worldview.

The main idea in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column is captured in this figure. During the 21st Century, consultative pacts have become the norm for alliance treaties. If the North Atlantic Treaty were written today, I'm not sure it would have Article 5.

Who are China's Friends? According to a recent survey by the @global-affairs.bsky.social of the Chinese public, Xi was right to have Putin and Kim as his "guests of honor" at the recent military parade.

Of all the documents we read for "Wheat at War" (available here: www.amazon.com/Wheat-War-Al...), a favorite was from the French Foreign Ministry archives: the list of delegates to the 1916 Paris Economic Conference of the Allied Nations. It seems Jean Monnet forgot to pay his registration fee ;)

"Hegemonism" may not be in "China's DNA" (according to Xi Jinping), but what does China's public want? According to new polling by @global-affairs.bsky.social & @cartercenter.bsky.social, the public is split on being dominant or sharing global leadership.

n preparation for teaching this fall, I'm creating a document titled "Abuse and Use of AI in Social Science Research Analysis and Writing". It will offer examples of "good use" and "bad use" of AI. For most, I offer detailed examples of the good and bad. But NOT for 👇 task

To write "Wheat at War", we had to acquire A LOT of documents. A favorite is this letter from Clementel (🇫🇷) to Runciman (🇬🇧). It kick started the negotiations to create the Wheat Executive. It also illustrates the value of "always reach out to the archives" -- as they sent the document for free 😉!

Overall, looking forward to the book becoming available this Friday!

Our book, "Wheat at War", will be available this Friday (link soon). What's it about? In many ways, the book's narrative is captured in the below graph (indeed, this graph appears early in the introductory chapter).

Fourth, one of the first sophisticated statistical techniques I ever learned was how to find structural breaks. I never had a chance to use that technique in published research, until now.

Always a thrill to unbox my author copies of a new book! (and always worth the 🙄 from my wife when I say, "Like I always told you, when you put your mind to it you can accomplish anything")

With nations lining up to (eventually) recognize a Palestinian State, it's useful to consider these @global-affairs.bsky.social survey results from May. Overall, most think the US should not take a side in the conflict, though there are clear partisan differences.

Excited to be just a few weeks away from the release of "Wheat at War" (pre-orders will ship this Friday)! As preview, here's the book's opening paragraph.

In short, this quote is just another variant on one of my favorite memes (this one about the value of the humanities):

When it comes to AI and Quant tech, recent @global-affairs.bsky.social survey shows that most US respondents want regulation…or don’t know what to think.

And Trump himself has long enjoyed using letters as a form of diplomacy.

Of course, the US has a LONG history of making unilateral declarations of intent!

Even today, letter's remain an important part of diplomacy. 🧵

Recent polls show that Trump's immigration policies are losing support, even among Republicans. That is notable. But as historic @global-affairs.bsky.social data show, Republicans haven't always been staunchly opposed to immigration, even illegal immigration.

Today marks one month until the release of "Wheat at War" w/ @rosellacappella.bsky.social! While the book is not yet out, my webpage with a description and replication materials is now up! Link here: www.paulpoast.com/wheat-at-war