For me, the breaking point and the true start of madness signaling what is to come, weren't Bamako 2024, or 10 cities 2025 in Western Mali rampage, but here, January and Islamic State attack on Nigerien military airport in Niamey, the capital of Niger.

From Syria met with him to organize next steps for the Sahel - later it would declare Sahel a standalone province, separating it from ISWAP in Nigeria, though both remain under a supervision of the second strongest "office" of today - al-Furqan, supervising West Africa for IS.

French DGSE likely were able to recruit. Those were later identified and massacred in major purge - by what I think is the man below - Abu Bara al-Sahrawi, the true mastermind behind today's strenght of the Islamic State in this region.

sent to create an affiliate in Libya in 2014. One of them was Abu Nabil, a slaughterer of Iraqi cadets in Speicher, wali of Salah ad-Din province and one of key IS commanders, ISI rescued from Baghdad prison in infamous Breaking the Walls campaign in 2013.

In one of the last appearances before his death in Idlib in 2019, first Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is seen being receiving reports from all over the world - that includes Sahel, with Baghdadi personally praising al-Sahrawi for his work on Islamic State’s expansion in the Sahel

Clearly, Al-Sahrawi after initial scrutiny, also caused by hurtful betrayals in other theaters making IS take vetting more seriously (we do remember Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, today's Ahmad al-Sharaa president of Syria right?), proved himself to IS leadership...

JNIM de facto was created in 2017, because al-Qaeda affiliated senior cadres of different jihadi outifts needed an operation room to survive the French, then also partly Americans raining death from above - however the second reason was exactly the Islamic State.

Its first leaders like Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi, were of Arab/Berber Sahrawis descent. It matters to this day - while the rank-and-file troops is a mosaic mirroring socities on the ground ISGS/ISSP has always had a "white" man in charge - and it continues even today.

Cannot be depicted as anything else other than a complete disaster. Revolts of the cynical power hungry military men, whose consequent policies have succeeded in exacerbating the problems they had promised to combat and were the excuse for their armed takeover in the first place.

A bit late 🧵. So, when looking at the Sahel, one cannot help but spot the behemoth that is JNIM, arguably the most powerful al-Qaeda affiliate atm. I personally think they are very short distance from cousin in Somalia. However, it’s Islamic State being an elephant in the room.

A reminder of what happened to the last attempt of Russia to rescue its operatives in Anefis on Sunday...a partial annihilation. The second, much bigger in size (proven already) will face no less challenges on the way.

Here much better quality pics of the targets FLA aimed for in the camp.

The battle of Anefis between the rebel coalition of JNIM and FLA against the government side supported by Russian military continues. Tuaregs release a new video of this time four FPV strikes against immobile targets in the camp the battle for entered 4th day today. #Mali

Anefis. Watched, monitored, bombed and as seen, with Russian and Mali army soldiers in attention, in a wake of inevitable approaching. Situation is completely hopeless at this point. JNIM and FLA are coming.

No escape for the Russian servicemen involved. We are waiting for news from heavily bombarded Anefis. There are rumors that Islamic State may be amassing forces again, looking for similar breach that allowed them to briefly seize Menaka and Labbezanga on April 25.

The Tuaregs from FLA have shot down a Russian helicopters during the battle against the Gao convoy in the past few hours. First confirmed visuals, there will likely be more if Anefis is cleared. Looks like tonight victory shifts towards the rebel coalition. #Mali

Yesterday night, JNIM informed on more battles beyond Anefis, including West of Bamako, central Mali, locations connected to Dogon militias and Léré in Timbuktu region, a camp assaulted every single year. Some combined inghamasis, brief takeover or simple artillery harassment.

Islamic State confirms that one of the largest battles in the Sahel this year indeed took place a week ago. IS claims to have killed over 70 Nigerien soldiers, destroyed 22 vehicles and seized 24 operational. #Niger

Islamic State decided to claim the attack on security forces HQ in Raqqa city. They also provide the same numbers Syrian MOI and Reuters said earlier, *4 dead and wounded*, which fits to 1 killed and three wounded. #Syria

The single most humiliating event of Russian campaign in Africa, going way beyond Tinzawaten 2024 disaster. Withdrawal of hundreds of Russian soldiers from Kidal on April 25/26, witnessed by massive al-Qaeda contingent and taunted on the way. No going back from this one. #Mali

In an unprecedented statement (also in French),JNIM (al-Qaeda in the Sahel) inspired by US Department of State's Rewards for Justice announces massive rewards for assassination or exposing the location of major Malian junta figures. Assimi Goita is worth 2 million of Euro. #Mali

Major development - for the first time, Islamic State claims attacks in Nigerian North-West on behalf of Islamic State Sahel, with multiple clashes against the Nigeria army reported from Kebbi and Sokoto provinces. #Nigeria

In what has become a sad standard since January 2025 (though in truth was looming in stages since 2022), JNIM informs on its forces capturing two Beninese military barracks near Burkina border yesterday. The group is sure to provide details later, including a death toll. #Benin

In new Naba Islamic State boasts of several theaters, though noticeably pretends to ignore events in Nigeria and massive joint Nigeria-US campaign against ISWAP. Here for example, ISPP/ISKP's new campaign of assassinations of religious figures/politicians/police in #Pakistan

New AFRICOM recording of strikes on Islamic State West Africa Province militants has just been released, with three IS jihadists seen bombed yesterday. Unspecified location in NE of Nigeria. #Nigeria

AFRICOM releases a recording of the operation to kill Mainuki and other unspecified Islamic State commanders.The location seems to have been Lake Chad, we will likely know more in several days. The op itself included drones/helicopters,and a likely ground component too. #Nigeria

An hour ago, Trump announced the killing of "Abu Bilal al-Minuki", who he said was hiding in Africa, as a second in global Islamic State command, in an operation conducted by US and Nigeria forces. Since early 2025, the most important assassination of an IS global operative. 🧵

Tuaregs enter Tessalit, after another Russian withdrawal from a key base location. A week after, the situation remains volatile, JNIM/FLA consolidated their gans. Eyes on Timbuktu. Blockade around Bamako. Russians stay. War continues in Burkina Faso and Niger. Thread tommorow.

It marked a beginning of the true rise. JNIM significantly expanded throughout the whole Burkina Faso, it's not a coincidence you can see those memes with BF dictaror