AI confidence crisis FFM- ❗ Demand drove Alphabet capex/free cash flow shock. ❗ Capex -$44.9b + operating cash flow $39b = FCF $5.9b. ‼️ Growth 80%+ in competitively priced cloud business. ‼️ BI sees 65-70% growth through 2027 on $514b backlog. 📉 Yet Alphabet stock -7%, Amazon -5% and Tesla -14%.

New FFM 🌍 Clean energy driven by geopolitics & economics not rules. ⛽ Fuel rises as war in Iran, Ukraine cripple refineries. 📈 BNEF sees fossil-fuel importers gaining on renewables. 💰 BNEF net zero scenario sees $4.8 tln spend/year to 2030. ☀️ First Solar 2H earnings driven by demand and not rules.

‼️ Investors ditch private credit funds on borrower health. ⁉️ Yet BI says valuations discount bearish narrative. 📉 2Q redemption requests left $14.5 billion trapped. 📈 But some funds didn’t need to impose 5% limit. 🐦‍⬛ Flipside of loans <80 is buying opportunities. Clients can read at FFM <GO>.

Start growing your beard or if you are a female warrior harvesting for your necklace! (Don't ask.)

627 villages were razed in eastern Poland by the SS with collaborationist battalions including Belarusians & Ukrainians, in 60 pacification and 80 punitive operations. My uncle in law's family were killed by Ukrainians in Jamy. He was taken to Moscow and became a communist minister in Poland.

‼️ Oil down on inventory drawdowns, demand destruction. 📉 DOE sees global stockpiles falling to yearend. 📉 US inventories drop before driving season. Exports soar. ☀️ China slashed oil imports & refinery runs on electrification. ⛽ BNEF forecasts peak oil demand in 2029. 🖥️ Clients can read at FFM.

‼️ World cup stocks rallying from YTD declines. 🏐 Adidas, Nike ads featuring Messi and Mbappe spur web traffic and stocks. 📈 Among 10 WC plays, only InBev, Coca-Cola and Adidas showed 6M gains. 📉 Nike, Fox, Comcast, Visa, Mastercard, Booking, Uber down despite buy calls. Clients can run FFM GO.

As a student in the late 80s in Southampton I am glad there was no Farage stirring up hatred and riots.

❗Anthropic June IPO filing another win vs OpenAI 👉 $965B valuation in May 28 funding beat OpenAI $852B.  👉Claude mentions in SPX company documents double ChatGPT in Q2. 👉Anthropic sales pace grew fivefold to top OpenAI 👉LLM API share 40% Anthropic vs 27% for OpenAI.    🖥️Clients can read at FFM <GO>.

Here BloombergNEF scenarios for the transition. They have an economic scenario which just goes on relative costs and a net zero one (below) which shows regulation working. Both need oil & gas for a while. If energy is expensive Reform/Trump win and block regulation. about.bnef.com/insights/cle...

Based on April MRP poll, a blue coalition with 45% of the votes would take power over a traffic-light coalition with 38% of the vote, and with a massive majority. Reform (188 seats) + Conservatives (159 seats) vs Labour (86), Green (71) Lib Dem (61).

‼️ After Tesla said it will triple capex, focus shifts to Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft April 29. 👉 They'll be grilled on how fast AI can deliver returns. 👉 Upside capex surprises in 3Q & 4Q triggered Mag 7 drop. 👉 Free cash flow is seen worsening in 2026. Clients can read at NSUB FFMSTORY.

Many targets were in areas predominantly civilian or commercial. The Iranian government put total direct and indirect damage from the airstrikes at around $270 billion — not far off the International Monetary Fund’s estimate for the entirety of Iran’s 2026 gross domestic product of $300 billion.

‼️ China’s role in Iran-US war/peace growing. 👉 A China-linked tanker testing a US blockade. 👉 China's Xi vowed a constructive role, lamenting “disarray.” 👉 Negotiators praise role of China, whose oil imports dived. 👉 Near 0 tanker transits create Hormuz bottleneck. Clients can read on FFM page.

⁉️ Are you ready for oil swings as Iran conflict at crossroads? 📈 March was one of only 7 times oil moved 30%+ since 1990 📉 Scenario tests show 30% oil drop may see energy stocks drop 13% 📊 After oil slid 55% in March 2020 Covid panic, it rose 40% in May 2020. Clients can read at FFM <GO>.

‼️ Higher fertilizer costs lower crop yields and fuel inflation. 👉 Bloomberg Agricultural Subindex gained 4% this year on concern farmers will plant less. 👉 Hedge funds are most net long grain futures since 2023. 👉 Last commodity shock in 2022 stoked 11% food inflation. Clients can read at FFM <GO>

US-Israel escalation, equivalent Iranian response, is destroying the world economy. Iranian ships bombed, retaliation on ships. Gas fields bombed, retaliation on gas. Aluminum plants bombed, retaliation on metals. Bridges bombed, retaliation? When China goes to emerging markets it builds stuff.

‼️Consumer supply chains hit by cost jump, demand slump 📊 Conagra, Nike outlook cuts flag a tough earnings season 📉 Russell 3000 consumer staples index lost 10% in March 🔪 Forecasts imply sector EPS growth of 2.2% v 7% 12M ago 📈 Diesel up 95% in 3M, polyethylene 30% Clients can read at FFM <GO>

This reflects different political systems in US and China. In the US, revolving door politician/investors prioritize earnings/inflation over low living costs. In China, technocrats target efficiency (to win trade/real wars) resulting in deflation (to keep social stability) and a strong currency.

‼️ Oil prices may be pausing before push higher. 👉 As Brent gyrated below $110, net long options at record. 👉 $3 billion contracts with strikes over $300. Some at $450. 👉 Skew last so extreme in 2020 rout when it was bearish. 👉 Now risk reversals bullish for year ahead. Clients can read at FFM GO.

👉 Oil & gas jump spurs clean energy demand as in 2022/23. 👉 UK, Germany & China outline new renewables investments. 👉 Jefferies, BlackRock buy clean energy stocks up 50% 1Y. 👉 Higher input costs for solar/wind slow rally in March. Clients can read at FFM <GO>.

Murdoch's Times led on this Israeli claim yesterday. Weapons of Massive destruction claims again trying to drag the UK into a US-initiated war.

‼️ Options position for dollar gains on haven bid, hawkish Fed. 💰 USD's 2026 rise slower than 2020 and smaller than 2022. 📈 10Y Treasury at 4.4% looks appealing vs stocks/risky debt. 🦅 Swaps see 50/50 chance of Oct Fed hike as hawks rise. Clients can read on FFM page.

What is the positive Iran scenario? If Trump ends the war, Israel keeps fighting & Iran keeps blocking Hormuz to boost its oil exports. If Trump sends troops or ships closer, Iran will fight a guerilla war, which it won in Iraq. Regime change is unlikely in war vs Israel & US, old enemies of Iran.

🚀 Oil topping $100 saw traders position as they did in 2022. ⛽ Brent surged 60% in the year to mid March in 2022 & 2026. ☀️ Solar, oil stocks rose as in 2022 but broad stocks fell less. 🤸 Like 22, there's rotation to low volatility & high value factors. Clients can read at FFM <GO>.

Why doesn't trump ask his newly formed Board of Peace for help in the Straits of Hormuz? Time for Orban's Hungarian navy to deliver.

Fascism warning from the 30s "When small men cast big shadows it means the sun is about to set." - Lin Yutang

⚔️ Iran war means central bankers have less stimulus room. 📈 Oil at $90 as Saudi, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait cut output. ❗ When commodities last this high in 2022, CPI hit 9% ‼️ Linkers pricing in 4% CPI in the year ahead. ⁉️ Scenario tests suggests 3%+ price increases. Clients can read on FFM <GO>.

X rewards fake news www.bbc.com/news/article...

This is a worrying chart. You can't expect to replace skilled labor leaving with unskilled labor coming in overnight without massive costs to the UK budget and economy. Is there a study into the skillset of those leaving Vs those arriving?