This is much better — fossil fuels actually get a mention 👏 www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...

I've updated the archive of ERA5 daily-mean 10 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal wind time series plots on my website to include the complete 2025/2026 plot alongside a list of the dates of all 59 major sudden stratospheric warmings in ERA5. simonleewx.com/10-hpa-60n-z...

Gonna teach a whole class this autumn using only this map (ok, it probably won't be *only* this map, but woah, what a forecast! The ENSO and teleconnection lectures are going to be even more fun than normal 🤓)

Updated the NAM archive on my website to include last winter simonleewx.com/northern-ann...

I’ve said it before, but every time I open the Met Office app I find myself baffled by this visualisation. In this example, it turns out that it means yesterday was warmer than any of the following 7 days are forecast to be, while today is the coldest (or joint coldest).

Cheeky quasi-shelf cloud on the leading edge of some intense frontal rainfall in east Fife this evening (photo at 19:48)

Cairngorms wildfire appears to have affected local cloud formation — notable hole in the cloud deck today, perhaps through locally reduced relative humidity? Imagery: Terra/MODIS via worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

Evening run spent contemplating how dry things are here. No rain recorded at Leuchars since 5 July.

Extremely amplified Atlantic Ridge regime present, with a possible Greenland High/negative NAO-type pattern by the end of the month. More at simonleewx.com.

“England’s green and pleasant land” becoming “England’s brown and scorched land” — effects of a long-lived heatwave and little rainfall on vegetation in England evident in these images from NOAA-20 today (left) and 18 July 2024 (right) during closer to average conditions.

Our shiny new Gill WindMaster sonic anemometer is moving closer to its initial deployment! 👀 😀 (not pictured: having oodles of fun creating various breezes/turbulence just to see what it looks like at 10 Hz)

Great to be at @exeter.ac.uk for the @rmets.org Annual Weather and Climate Conference 2026!

While I fully support explaining the specific meteorological conditions behind a heatwave, I still cannot understand not giving any mention to climate change. (Screenshot from a BBC article.)

Today’s GFS 18Z for 11 July showing max temperatures in England reaching 41°C Not to be taken as a deterministic forecast. However, this suggests that yet more extreme heat is possible in the next few weeks, which is made more likely and intense by climate change driven by burning fossil fuels.

Developing heatwave across the eastern US consistent with the Pacific Ridge regime approaching +2 standard deviations. The PR regime is the warmest regime on average in this region in summer.

Firth of Forth from Fife about 30 mins ago

This afternoon, I asked faculty, staff, and research students in the School of Earth & Environmental Sciences @earthscista.bsky.social for their predictions/guesses for the highest temperature that will be recorded in the UK this week. With 34 responses, our ensemble mean is 39.2°C.

Something no one has ever seen before: a Met Office forecast for somewhere in the UK (in this case, Reading) with two consecutive days of 40°C Whether or not this happens, the fact it is within the range of possible scenarios should give a loud warning of the climate we are now in

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY NOT “NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER” FOR THE UK — ESPECIALLY IN JUNE! (Record is 35.6°C) We are seeing the effects of climate change due to human activity playing out. Image is the latest Met Office forecast for London

ECMWF forecast Z500 anomalies for 27 June 2026 vs ERA5 Z500 anomalies for 19 July 2022, the UK's hottest day on record. The atmosphere is evolving towards a state conducive for extreme heat across northwest Europe.

While the climatological probability of the Pacific Trough regime is smallest in summer (~20%), current subseasonal ensemble forecasts suggest a notable and persistent suppressed likelihood. An example of more confidence in what the regime *won't* be, than what it *will* be?

This is NOAA's 20CRv3 Z500 anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data... for MAM 1921

If you’re going to use this meme as Greenpeace do here, at least use it properly — “hottest spring of your life so far” (closer to Homer’s original line) It’s extremely unlikely to be the coldest spring of the rest of your life due to natural variability, but it will be among the colder ones.

Interestingly the circulation pattern responsible for the extreme heat in the UK doesn’t project strongly onto any of the four Atlantic regimes — we’re in a decaying phase of a Scandi Blocking regime. Caveat that these regimes specifically might not be the best descriptors of the large-scale flow

Another record shattering heat extreme

A pleasure to host @timwoollings.bsky.social, Ken Mylne, @hcbloomfield19.bsky.social & @drchriswhite.bsky.social yesterday for the annual @earthscista.bsky.social symposium, this year on "From dynamics to impacts: Weather in a warming world". Thank you all for visiting and giving such great talks!

BBC also manage not to mention climate change, even when discussing the unusual nature of 30°C in May 🤷‍♂️ www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti... I’m a bit baffled

I’d rather be chasing today’s Moderate risk in Kansas, but this fun little pileus on some shallow convection over northeast Fife will have to suffice

A big congrats to Josh Duffield, supervised by @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, for passing his PhD viva today with @ruthgeen.bsky.social and me as examiners. Some fascinating work on extreme temperatures that was a pleasure to read and discuss! 🥳 @earthscista.bsky.social